• Title/Summary/Keyword: Monte-Carlo

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Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method for Apartment Using CM at Risk (CM at Risk를 적용한 공동주택의 확률론적 초기 GMP 산정방안)

  • Hyun, Chang-Taek;Go, Gun-Ho;Jin, Zhengxun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2018
  • In the DBB delivery system, the design stage and the construction stage are separated. Because of this, design changes frequently occur, and problems such as construction cost overrun, schedule delay, and quality deterioration happen as well. Recently, in the construction industry CM at Risk(CM@R) delivery system, which can systematically solve the above-mentioned problems of DBB delivery system, meet various demands of clients, and overcome the limited cost and period. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the CM performer carries out the construction within the GMP. However, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. In this study, a Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method by combining a probabilistic tool of Monte Carlo simulation with a case based reasoning is proposed so that the uncertainty in GMP calculation is reflected. After the earlier GMP is calculated, a process to calculate the $2^{nd}$ GMP at the time of around 80 % of detailed deign and to negotiate with the client to fix the final GMP is proposed. The Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method is verified through the case study. In this study, researchers set the range of GMP through the proposed probabilistic GMP calculation and tried to reduce the risk through negotiation between the client and the CM performer. The proposed method and process would contribute to the successful introduction of CM@R in Korea.

Optimization Method for the Design of LCD Back-Light Unit (LCD Back-Light Unit 설계를 위한 최적화 기법)

  • Seo Heekyung;Ryu Yangseon;Choi Joonsoo;Hahn Kwang-Soo;Kim Seongcheol
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.133-147
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    • 2005
  • Various types of ray-tracing methods are used to predict the quantity measures of radiation illumination, the uniformity of illumination, radiation performance of LCD BLU(Hack-Light Unit). The uniformity of radiation illumination is one of the most important design factor of BLU and is usually controlled by the diffusive-ink pattern printed on the bottom of light-guide panel of BLU. Therefore it is desirable to produce an improved (ideally, the optimal) ink pattern to achieve the best uniformity of radiation illumination. In this paper, we applied the Welder-Mead simplex-search method among various direct search method to compute the optimal ink pattern. Direct search methods are widely used to optimize the functions which are often highly nonlinear, unpredictably discontinuous, and nondifferentiable, The ink-pattern controlling the uniformity of radiation illumination is one type of these functions. In this paper, we found that simplex search methods are well suited to computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. In extensive numerical testing, we have found the simplex search method to be reasonably efficient and reliable at computing the optimal diffusive-ink pattern. The result also suggests that optimization can improve the functionality of simulation tools which are used to design LCD BLU.

Multimodal Emotional State Estimation Model for Implementation of Intelligent Exhibition Services (지능형 전시 서비스 구현을 위한 멀티모달 감정 상태 추정 모형)

  • Lee, Kichun;Choi, So Yun;Kim, Jae Kyeong;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2014
  • Both researchers and practitioners are showing an increased interested in interactive exhibition services. Interactive exhibition services are designed to directly respond to visitor responses in real time, so as to fully engage visitors' interest and enhance their satisfaction. In order to install an effective interactive exhibition service, it is essential to adopt intelligent technologies that enable accurate estimation of a visitor's emotional state from responses to exhibited stimulus. Studies undertaken so far have attempted to estimate the human emotional state, most of them doing so by gauging either facial expressions or audio responses. However, the most recent research suggests that, a multimodal approach that uses people's multiple responses simultaneously may lead to better estimation. Given this context, we propose a new multimodal emotional state estimation model that uses various responses including facial expressions, gestures, and movements measured by the Microsoft Kinect Sensor. In order to effectively handle a large amount of sensory data, we propose to use stratified sampling-based MRA (multiple regression analysis) as our estimation method. To validate the usefulness of the proposed model, we collected 602,599 responses and emotional state data with 274 variables from 15 people. When we applied our model to the data set, we found that our model estimated the levels of valence and arousal in the 10~15% error range. Since our proposed model is simple and stable, we expect that it will be applied not only in intelligent exhibition services, but also in other areas such as e-learning and personalized advertising.

Calibration of CR-39 for Hadron Radiotherapy using 400 MeV/u C ions (400 MeV/u 탄소 이온에 대한 방사선치료 선량 측정용 고체비적검출기의 교정)

  • Kim, Sunghwan;Nam, Uk-Won;Lee, Jaejin;Park, Won-Kee;Pyo, Jeonghyun;Moon, Bong-Kon
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2016
  • In this study, equivalent dose and LET (Linear Energy Transfer) calibration of CR-39 SSNTD (Solid State Nuclear Track Detector) were performed using 400 MeV/u C heavy ions in HIMAC (Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator in Chiba) for high LET radiation therapy. The irradiated CR-39 SSNDTs were etched according the etching condition of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). And the etched SSNTDs were analyzed by using Image J. Determined frequency mean dose (${\bar{y_D}}$)and dose-mean lineal energy (${\bar{y_F}}$)of 400 MeV/u C are about 8.5keV/mm and 10.1 keV/mm, respectively by using the CR-39 SSNTD. This value is very similar to the results calculated by GEANT4 Monte Carlo simulation and measured with TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter) active radiation detector. We could determine the equivalent dose and LET calibration factors of CR-39. And we confirmed that the CR-39 SSNTD was useful for high LET radiation dosimetry in hadron radiotherapy.

Marinelli Beaker Measurement and Self Absorption Correction and Application for Various Environmental Samples in Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션에서의 다양한 환경 샘플에 대한 Marinelli 비이커 측정 및 자기 흡수 보정과 적용)

  • Jang, Eun-Sung;Gim, Yang-Soo;Lee, Sun-Young
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.605-611
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    • 2017
  • The structure of the actual detector was computed using the code of the PENELOPE. Using the standard mixed sources (450, 1,000 ml), compare the effectiveness of each energy according to various densities and height of the PENELOPE computer simulation, and calculate the effectiveness of the various environmental specimens and apply them to various environmental specimens to determine the lower limit. The values obtained by the obtained value were obtained by applying the obtained efficiency to the actual environmental specimens and obtaining the lower limit values. The density correction factor is 1.155 g of the density correction factor of $0.4g/cm^3$ (59.54keV), 1.153 (661 keV), $1.06g/cm^3$ 1.064 (1,836.04keV), 1.03, and 1.033. It was confirmed that the radioactivity concentration of environmental samples decreased as the amount of specimen was measured increases, and the MDA value decreased as time measured increases.

Statistical Inference for Process Capability Indices and 6 Sigma Qualify Levels (공정능력지수들과 6 시그마 품질수준에 대한 통계적 추론)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Sim, Kyu-Young;Park, Byoung-Sun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.451-464
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    • 2008
  • Six sigma is the rating that signifies "best in clas", with only 3.4 defects per million units or operations. Higher sigma quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. The process capability indices and the sigma level $Z_{st}$ have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on point estimates, which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider statistical inference for process capability indices $C_p$, $C_{pk}$ and $C_{pm}$. Also, we study better testing procedure on assessing sigma level $Z_{st}$ and capability index $C_{pm}$, for practitioners to use in determining whether a given process is capable. The proposed method is easy to use and the decision making is more reliable. Whether a process is clearly normal or nonnormal, our bootstrap testing procedure could be applied effectively without the complexity of calculation. A numerical result based on our proposed method is illustrated.

Test of Hypothesis in Assessing Process Capability Index Cpmk (공정능력지수 Cpmk를 평가함에서의 바람직한 가설검정)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Yu, Hye-Kyung;Hana, Jung-Su
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.459-471
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    • 2010
  • Higher quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. Usually, the quality level is measured by process capability indices. The index is used to determine whether a production process is capable of producing items within a specified tolerance. The third generation index $C_{pmk}$ is more powerful than two useful indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$. which have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on point estimates, which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider better testing procedure on assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$ for practitioners to use in determining whether a given process is capable. It is easy to use the proposed method for assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$. Whether a process is clearly normal or nonnormal, our bootstrap testing procedure could be applied effectively without the complexity of calculation. A numerical result based on our proposed method is illustrated.

Designing A V2V based Traffic Surveillance System and Its Functional Requirements (V2V기반 교통정보수집체계 설계 및 요구사항분석)

  • Hong, Seung-Pyo;Oh, Cheol;Kim, Won-Kyu;Kim, Hyun-Mi;Kim, Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.251-264
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    • 2008
  • One of the crucial elements to fully facilitate the various benefits of intelligent transportation systems (ITS) is to obtain more reliable traffic monitoring in real time. To date, point and section-based traffic measurements have been available through existing surveillance technologies, such as loops and automatic vehicle identification (AVI) systems. However, seamless and more reliable traffic data are required for more effective traffic information provision and operations. Technology advancements including vehicle tracking and wireless communication enable the acceleration of the availability of individual vehicle travel information. This study presents a UBIquitous PRObe vehicle Surveillance System (UBIPROSS) using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) wireless communications. Seamless vehicle travel information, including origin-destination information, speed, travel times, and other data, can be obtained by the proposed UBIPROSS. A set of parameters associated with functional requirements of the UBIPROSS, which include the market penetration rate (MPR) of equipped vehicles, V2V communication range, and travel time update interval, are investigated by a Monte Carlo simulation- (MCS) based evaluation framework. In addition, this paper describes prototypical implementation. Field test results and identified technical issues are also discussed. It is expected that the proposed system would be an invaluable precursor to develop a next-generation traffic surveillance system.

Improvement of Light Extraction Efficiency of GaN-Based Vertical LED with Microlens Structure

  • Kwon, Eunhee;Kang, Eun Kyu;Min, Jung Wook;Lee, Yong Tak
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2013.08a
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    • pp.221-221
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    • 2013
  • Vertical LED (VLED) has been recognized as a way to obtain the high-power LED due to their advantages [1]. However, approximately 4% of the light generated from the active region is extracted, if the light extraction from side walls and back side is neglected because of Fresnel reflection (FR) and total internal reflection (TIR) [2,3]. In this study, the optical simulation of the VLED with the various microstructures was performed. Among them, the microlens having the diameter of 3 ${\mu}m$ and the height of 1.5 ${\mu}m$ shown the best result was chosen, and then, optimized microlens was formed on a GaN template using conventional semiconductor process. Various microstructures were proposed to improve the light extraction efficiency (LEE) of the VLED for the simulation. The LEE was simulated using LightTools based on a Monte Carlo ray tracing. The microstructures with hemisphere, cone, truncated and cylinder pattern having diameter of 3 ${\mu}m$ were employed on the top layer of the VLED respectively. The improvement of the LEE by using the microstructure is 87% for the hemisphere, 77% for the cone, 53% for the truncated, 21% for the cylinder, compared with the LEE of the flat surface at the reflectance of 85%. The LEE was increased by 88% at the height of 1.5 ${\mu}m$, compared with the LEE of the flat surface. We found that the microlens on the top layer is the most suitable for increasing the LEE. In order to apply the proposed microlens on n-GaN surface, we fabricated microlens on a GaN template. A photoresist array having hexagonal-closed packed microlens was fabricated on the GaN template. Then, optimization of etching the GaN template was performed using a dry etching process with ICP-RIE. The dry etching carried out using a gas mixture of Cl2 and Ar, each having a flow rate of 16 sccm and 10 sccm, respectively with RF power of 50 W, ICP power of 900 W and chamber pressure of 2 mTorr was the optimum etching condition as shown in Fig. 2(a).

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The Robust Phylogeny of Korean Wild Boar (Sus scrofa coreanus) Using Partial D-Loop Sequence of mtDNA

  • Cho, In-Cheol;Han, Sang-Hyun;Fang, Meiying;Lee, Sung-Soo;Ko, Moon-Suck;Lee, Hang;Lim, Hyun-Tae;Yoo, Chae-Kyoung;Lee, Jun-Heon;Jeon, Jin-Tae
    • Molecules and Cells
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.423-430
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    • 2009
  • In order to elucidate the precise phylogenetic relationships of Korean wild boar (Sus scrofa coreanus), a partial mtDNA D-loop region (1,274 bp, NC_000845 nucleotide positions 16576-1236) was sequenced among 56 Korean wild boars. In total, 25 haplotypes were identified and classified into four distinct subgroups (K1 to K4) based on Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. An extended analysis, adding 139 wild boars sampled worldwide, confirmed that Korean wild boars clearly belong to the Asian wild boar cluster. Unexpectedly, the Myanmarese/Thai wild boar population was detected on the same branch as Korean wild boar subgroups K3 and K4. A parsimonious median-joining network analysis including all Asian wild boar haplotypes again revealed four maternal lineages of Korean wild boars, which corresponded to the four Korean wild boar subgroups identified previously. In an additional analysis, we supplemented the Asian wild boar network with 34 Korean and Chinese domestic pig haplotypes. We found only one haplotype, C31, that was shared by Chinese wild, Chinese domestic and Korean domestic pigs. In contrast to our expectation that Korean wild boars contributed to the gene pool of Korean native pigs, these data clearly suggest that Korean native pigs would be introduced from China after domestication from Chinese wild boars.