• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.2421-2428
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• 2002

In this study, the failure probability of the degraded LP turbine blade steel was performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to apply variation of applied stress and strength. For this purpose, applied stress under the service condition of steady state was obtained by theoretical stress analysis and the maximum Von-Mises stress was 219MPa. The fatigue strength under rotating-bending load was evaluated by the staircase method. Furthermore, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to be most appropriate among assumed distributions when the probabilistic distributions of tensile and fatigue strength were determined by the proposed analysis. The failure probability with various loading conditions was derived from the strength-stress interference model and the characteristic factor of safety was also estimated.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.248-255
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• 1993

Recently, due to the increasing attention to the structural safety under uncertain environments, many researches on the structural reliability analysis have been peformed. Some useful methods are available to evaluate performance reliability of structures with explicit limit states. However, for large structures, in which structural behaviors can be analyzed with finite element models and the limit states are only expressed implicitly, Monte-Carlo simulation method has been mainly used. However, Monte-Carlo simulation method spends too much computational time on repetitive structural analysis. Many alternative methods are suggested to reduce the computational work required in Monte-Carlo simulation. Response surface method is widely used to improve the efficiency of structural reliability analysis. Response surface method is based on the concept of approximating simple polynomial function of basic random variables for the limit state which is not easily expressed in explicit forms of design random variables. The response surface method has simple algorithm. However, the accuracy of results highly depends on how properly the stochastic characteristics of the original limit state has been represented by approximated function, In this study, an improved response surface method is proposed in which the sampling points for creating response surface are modified to represent the failure surface more adequately and the combined use of a linear response surface function and Rackwitz-Fiessler method has been employed. The method is found to be more effective and efficient than previous response surface methods. In addition more consistent convergence is achieved, Accuracy of the proposed method has been investigated through example.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.154-160
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• 2001

For major structural components periodic inspections and integrity assessments are needed for the safety. However, many flaws are undetectable because sampling inspection is carried out during in-service inspection. Probabilistic integrity assessment is applied to take into consideration of uncertainty and variance of input parameters arise due to material properties and undetectable cracks. This paper describes a Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics(PFM) analysis based on the Monte Carlo(MC) algorithms. Taking a number of sampling data of probabilistic variables such as fracture toughness value, crack depth and aspect ratio of an initial surface crack, a MC simulation of failure judgement of samples is performed. for the verification of this analysis, a comparison study of the PFM analysis using a commercial code, mathematical method is carried out and a good agreement was observed between those results.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.75-84
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• 2010

According to the available study and experimental data about the long term behavior of CFT(Concrete Filled Tube) columns, the creep and of concrete in CFT columns are smaller than those of RC columns because of the confinement effect of outer steel columns. In this study, the uncertainties associated with assumed values for concrete properties such as strength, creep coefficients, and service load have been considered and analyzed for the prediction of time-dependent column shortening of CFT column. The CFT column shortening analysis using Monte Carlo method is proposed and an of a 37 story tall building with CFT columns is studied for illustration. According to the results obtained by the probability analysis with multi parameters, the effect of variation coefficient for 3 parameters is investigated considering confidence interval.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.25-37
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• 2008

In a fault tree analysis, an uncertainty importance measure is often used to assess how much uncertainty of the top event probability (Q) is attributable to the uncertainty of a basic event probability ($q_i$), and thus, to identify those basic events whose uncertainties need to be reduced to effectively reduce the uncertainty of Q. For evaluating the measures suggested by many authors which assess a percentage change in the variance V of Q with respect to unit percentage change in the variance $v_i$ of $q_i$, V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}v_i$ need to be estimated analytically or by Monte Carlo simulation. However, it is very complicated to analytically compute V and ${\partial}V/{\partial}v_i$ for large-sized fault trees, and difficult to estimate them in a robust manner by Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating the measure using discretization technique and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method provides a stable uncertainty importance of each basic event.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.57-61
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• 2006

This paper calculates and gives the analysis of mean energy in pure $SiH_4,\;Ar-SiH_4$ mixture gases ($SiH_4-0.5[%],\;5[%]$) over the range of $E/N =0.01{\sim}300[Td]$, p = 0.1, 1, 5.0 [Torr] by Monte Carlo the Backward prolongation method of the Boltzmann equation using computer simulation without using expensive equipment. The results have been obtained by using the electron collision cross sections by TOF, PT, SST sampling, compared with the experimental data determined by the other author. It also proved the reliability of the electron collision cross sections and shows the practical values of computer simulation. The calculations of electron swarm parameters require the knowledge of several collision cross-sections of electron beam. Thus, published momentum transfer, ionization, vibration, attachment, electronic excitation, and dissociation cross-sections of electrons for $SiH_4$ and Ar, were used. The differences of the transport coefficients of electrons in $SiH_4$, mixtures of $SiH_4$ and Ar, have been explained by the deduced energy distribution functions for electrons and the complete collision cross-sections for electrons. A two-term approximation of the Boltzmann equation analysis and Monte Carlo simulation have been used to study electron transport coefficients.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.331-343
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• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.47 no.8
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• pp.574-581
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• 2019

This paper investigates the effects of thrust misalignments and offsets of the lateral center of gravity of a space launch vehicle on its guidance performance. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations are applied to analyze their effects by computing changes in orbit injection errors when including the error sources. To compensate their effects, the attitude controller including an integrator additionally and the Steering Misalignment Correction (SMC) routine of the Saturn V are considered, and then Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate their performances.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.1947-1954
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• 2021

In the nuclear medicine imaging, quality control (QC) process using quadrant bar phantom is fundamental aspect of evaluating the spatial resolution. In addition, QC process of gamma camera is performed by daily or weekly. Recently, Monte Carlo simulation using the Geant4 application for tomographic emission (GATE) is widely applied in the pre-clinical nuclear medicine field for modeling gamma cameras with pixelated cadmium telluride (CdTe) semiconductor detector. In this study, we modeled a pixelated CdTe semiconductor detector and quadrant bar phantom (0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 mm bar thicknesses) using the GATE tool. Similarity analysis based on correlation coefficients and peak signal-to-noise ratios was performed to compare image qualities for various source to collimator distances (0, 2, 4, 6, and 8 cm) and collimator lengths (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 cm). To this end, we selected reference images based on collimator length and source to collimator distance settings. The results demonstrate that as the collimator length increases and the source to collimator distance decreases, the similarity to reference images improves. Therefore, our simulation results represent valuable information for the modeling of CdTe-based semiconductor gamma imaging systems and QC phantoms in the field of nuclear medicine.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.86-92
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• 2012

Point estimate method has a less accuracy than Monte Carlo simulation that is usually considered as an exact probabilistic method, but this method still remains popular in probability-based reliability assessment in geotechnical and rock engineering, because it significantly reduce the number of sampling points and produces the statistical moments of a performance function in a reasonable accuracy. In the present study, we investigated the accuracy and applicability of point estimate methods proposed by Rosenblueth and Zhou & Nowak by comparing the results of these two methods with those of Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison was carried out for the problem of a lined circular tunnel in an elastic medium where an closed-form analytical solution is given. The comparison results showed that despite the non-linearity of the analytical solution, the statistical moments calculated by the point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulations agreed well with an average error of roughly 1-2%. This average error demonstrates the applicability of the two point estimate methods for the probabilistic reliability assessment of underground structures in combination with numerical analysis.