• Title/Summary/Keyword: Modified Delphi Method

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Application of the Delphi Technique in Modifying AHP Method (Delphi를 사용한 AHP방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Sung-Hwan;Gwon, Seong-Hoon;Park, Jin-Bum;Hong, Soon-Ki
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2009
  • AHP is widely used in various fields owing to its simplicity and clarity. However, it has the problems of reliability of panel's judgement and the assumption that each panelist's ability is equal. In this paper, we propose a reliable AHP method using Delphi technique, which aims to incorporate the relative expertise of panel and to increase their consensus. The method is called the Modified Delphi-AHP. We apply the method to analyzing the demand for lectures of Management of Technology.

A Study on The Success Factors of Youth Enterprises (청년창업 성공요인에 관한 연구: 창업전문가를 대상으로)

  • Shim, Hyeon Min;Seol, Byung Moon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2022
  • This study derived the success factors of youth enterprises by applying the Delphi Method to start-up experts. Through this, it aims to improve understanding of youth enterprises in entrepreneurship education and start-up support projects and contribute to the development of education and support programs suitable for youth enterprises. Also The purpose of this study is to help youth entrepreneurs solve their curiosity about the success factors of youth enterprises, identify the factors that youth entrepreneurs should first secure or perform among the factors they need to consider during start-ups, and use limited resources efficiently and effectively to succeed. In this study, the Delphi Survey was conducted twice in total. The first Delphi Survey utilized the Modified Delphi Method using structured closed-ended questions, and a pilot test was conducted on youth entrepreneurs and start-up experts to compensate for the problem of the Modified Delphi Method. In the first Delphi Survey, IBM SPSS Statistics 22 and Microsoft Office Excel 2016 were used to calculate the mean, standard deviation, median, interquartile range, and content validity ratio. In the Delphi 2nd survey, the same statistical values in the 1st survey and additionally cronbach's alpha were calculated. As a result of the Delphi Survey, four factors, such as the entrepreneurial characteristics, entrepreneurial preparation, entrepreneurial strategy, and entrepreneurial environment, and 22 sub-factors were derived as success factors for youth enterprises.

A Study on the State of Art and International Cooperation in the Field of Mechanical Engineering by Delphi Method (Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술의 수준평가 및 국제 기술협력기반에 관한 연구)

  • 권영주
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1996.04a
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    • pp.169-175
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    • 1996
  • We provide a fudamental set of information on technologies in the area of mechanical engineering to draw action plans for intermationalization of the National R&D activites. First, we design and use a modified Delphi method to evaluate levels of our technological capabilities and developed countries' as well. We investigate technology acquistion methodolgies, technology characteristcs and various aspects of international cooperation in terms of technology. Secondly, we analyze final responses of participants (i.e,. the third round results of Delphi method) tosee the correlation between various factors in developing mechanical engineering technologies through international cooperation. The technology classification used in this research is developed by STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute).

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A Study on the State-of-the-Art Technology Level Evaluation and Internation R&D Cooperation in the Field of Mechanical Engineering by Delphi Method (Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술의 수준평가 및 국제 기술협력기반에 관한 연구)

  • Y.J. Kwon;S.H. Joo;Kim, H.B.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 1996
  • We provide a set of information on technologies in the area of mechanical engineering to draw meaningful action plans for the internationalization of National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modified Delphi method to evaluate levels of our technoligical capabilities and developed countries' as well. We investigate technology acquistion methodologies, technology charcteristics and various aspects of interna- tional cooperation in terms of technology. Then, we analyzed final responses of participants(i.e., the third round results of Delphi method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing mechanical engineeing technologies through international cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was devel- oped by STEPI(Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, our mechanical engineering technology is investigated to be below the middle level stage of technology(i.e., the stage of digesting acquired technologies) except the shipbuilding equipments technology which is evaluated to be on the top level stage of technology.

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정보통신표준화분야 우선순위결정을 위한 방법론 연구

  • 박기식;구경철;서의호
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.129-151
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    • 1994
  • This paper focuses on method of setting priorities for telecommunications Standardization in which usually includes prioritization, resource allocation, standardization schedule for each SWA is based on prioritization of SWAs. We mainly used the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and a modified Delphi technique as a method for planning process. Recently, rapid technology evolution in telecommunications fields increases the necessity of developing more and more new standards. Also increased complexity of technologies makes standards more complicated, more specified and more thick than the past ones. As a result, the number of SWAa(Standardization Work Areas) and SWIs(Standardization Work Iterms) is being increased continuously. Furthermore, rapid telecommunication environment changes such as deregulation, liberalization, privatization, regionalization, and globalization surrounding telecommunications standardization grows increasingly important. To cope with these challenges and to make the more efficient use of the limited standardization resources, i.e., time, financial, personal resources, we will suggest logical and rational approach that is a backbone of strategic plan for telecommunication standardization. The telecommunication standardization planning process involves a MCDM(Multi-Criteria Decision Making) process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) is a kind of MCDM approach. Our method is based on a combination of a modified Delphi technique and an application of AHP(spreadsheet model). Analyzed data from Delphi technique is used as inputs to AHP. In addition we also focus on the technique how to combine group judgments and to handle a large number of comparisons.

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Delphi기법에 의한 기계공학기술과 다른 기술분야의 국제적 기술수준과 국제기술협력 가능성에 대한 비교연구

  • 권영주
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.794-798
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    • 1997
  • We provide a set of information on technologies to draw meaningful action plans for the inter- nationalization of National R&D activities. In this study, we employed a modified Delphi method to evaluate level od our technological capabilities and developed countries' as well. We investigated technology acquistion methodologies,technology characteristics and various aspects of international cooperation in terms of technology. Then we analyzed final responses of participants (i.e, the third round results of Delphi method) to see the correlation among various factors in developing tehnologies through international R&D cooperation. The technology classification used in this research was developed by STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute). In conclusion, levels of our technologies were investigated to be between the stage of imitating/absorbing advanced technologies and the stage of digesting acquired technologies. Especially, comparing with other technologies, mechanical engineering was evaluated to be almost near the stage of digesting acquired technology (the middle level stage of technology). Out overal technological capabilites were evaluated to be 40~60% of top level countries'.

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Testing for Self-care Ability Measurement in an Aged Health Center - A Delphi Technique - (일개 노인보건센터에서의 자가관리능력 측정도구 검증 - 델파이기법을 중심으로 -)

  • Kwon, Myung-Soon
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: To find out whether the self-care ability measurement used for visiting health care provide an appropriate standard to select service methods using a Delphi survey and to offer basic data that can improve the measurement. Method: A Delphi survey was done with 39 people consisting of theoretical professionals, field managers, and practitioners engaged in visiting health care. Result: It was found that items and weighted points in the currently used self-care ability measurement needed adjustment. Therefore, a modified evaluation standard was presented by domains, items and detailed items. Finally, the self-care ability measurement is composed of 4 domains, 11 items and 19 detailed items. Conclusion: This study is significant in that it presented an evaluation standard applicable directly to business practice by supplementing problems in the existing self-care ability measurement. This study suggests the need to develop various measurements for elderly households based on community.

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Managerial Priority Derivation for Pollutants in Drinking Water (식수품질 저해요인 중 관리 우선순위 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Hee-Kyun;Lee, Hee-Chan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2016
  • The main purpose of this study was to derive managerial priority for pollutants in drinking water using the Delphi technique and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. We collected fundamental existing items based on a literature review for water pollutants, and deduced a total of 36 sub-items from nine core sectors, as follows: organic matter; inorganic substances; pathogenic organisms; chemicals; heavy metals; radioactive substances; sediment deposits; heat; and oil, and then conducted the first round of an expert study to ensure that objective indicators properly evaluate major issues for management of for drinking water quality. In the following round, the necessity and importance assessments of adjusted items were implemented using a content validity ratio index. Finally, items modified by Delphi surveys were applied to AHP. We computed weighted values by pair-wise comparison of sub-items and each of five sectors modified by the second round. According to the results of AHP, the managerial priority for pollutants in drinking water was as follows; while heavy metal placed first in importance, pathogenic organisms came second, followed by inorganic substances, organic matter and chemical substances from the sector perspective.

Online Experts Screening the Worst Slicing Machine to Control Wafer Yield via the Analytic Hierarchy Process

  • Lin, Chin-Tsai;Chang, Che-Wei;Wu, Cheng-Ru;Chen, Huang-Chu
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2006
  • This study describes a novel algorithm for optimizing the quality yield of silicon wafer slicing. 12 inch wafer slicing is the most difficult in terms of semiconductor manufacturing yield. As silicon wafer slicing directly impacts production costs, semiconductor manufacturers are especially concerned with increasing and maintaining the yield, as well as identifying why yields decline. The criteria for establishing the proposed algorithm are derived from a literature review and interviews with a group of experts in semiconductor manufacturing. The modified Delphi method is then adopted to analyze those results. The proposed algorithm also incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weights of evaluation. Additionally, the proposed algorithm can select the evaluation outcomes to identify the worst machine of precision. Finally, results of the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed AHP-based algorithm in effectively selecting the evaluation outcomes and evaluating the precision of the worst performing machines. So, through collect data (the quality and quantity) to judge the result by AHP, it is the key to help the engineer can find out the manufacturing process yield quickly effectively.

정보통신표준화 전략계획수립을 위한 방법론연구-표준화대상의 우선순위 결정을 중심으로-

  • 구경철;박기식;송기평;임채연
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1995.04a
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    • pp.847-864
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    • 1995
  • In this paper we present an integrated methodology for strategic planning in telecommunications standardization. Especially this paper focuses on the method of setting priorities for telecommunications SWAs(Standardization Work Areas) and related SWls(Standardization Work Items). To make a strategic plan for telecommunications standardization in which usually includes prioritization, resource allocation, standardization schedule for each SWA is based on prioritization of SWAs. Our methodology integrated various existing methods including the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and a modified Delphi technique. Recently, rapid technology evolution in telecommunications fields increases the necessity of developing more and more new standards. Also increased complexity of those technologies makes standards more complicated, more specified and more thick than the past ones. As a result, the number of SWAs and SWIs are being increased constantly. Furthermore, rapid telecommunication environment changes such as deregulation, liberalization, privatization, regionalization, and globalization surrounding standardization bring about new challenges and opportunities. Due to all these trends, strategic planning for telecommunications standardization grows more and more important. To cope with these challenges and also to make the more efficient use of the limited standardization resources including time, financial, human resources, we suggest more logical and rational approach that will be a backbone of strategic plan for telecommunications standardization. The telecommunications standardization planning process involves a MCDM(Multi-Criteria Decision Making) process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) is a kind of MCDM approaches. Our method is based on a combination of a modified Delphi technique and an application of AHP(Liberator's spreadsheet model). Analyzed data from Delphi technique is used as inputs to ABP. In addition, we also focus on the technique how to combine group judgments and to handle a large number of comparisons. We present analyzed results including Pilot and Full Scale Survey according to the proposed process. The result of this study will be useful input for telecommunications standardization policy making and practical implementation.

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