• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model making

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Development of the Decision-Making System for National Highway Pavement Management (국도 포장관리를 위한 의사결정시스템 개발)

  • Do, Myungsik;Kwon, Sooahn;Lee, Sang Hyuk;Kim, Yongjoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.645-654
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    • 2014
  • PMS (Pavement Management System) of National highways in Korea has used HDM (Highway Development and Management)-4 developed by World Bank for decision-making for maintenance and rehabilitation of pavements. However using HDM-4 is not appropriate in Korea because HDM-4 requires excessive input factors for analysis and economic analysis models loaded in HDM-4 are not suitable for Korean circumstances. Thus this study aims development of decision-making system for effective pavement management with reflecting Korean circumstances. Moreover this study proposed to define component of system, deterioration models, and basic units for component, and to analyze characteristics of component of system, and also to develop optimal decision-making system. The decision-making system for PMS mainly consists of 1) DB of highways, traffics, and socio-economic index, 2) pavement deterioration model, 3) speed prediction models by pavement conditions, 4) economic evaluation models, and 5) decision-making supporting system. Also this study provided analysis results in case studies for system verifications. However pavement deterioration models considering future probabilistic characteristic and index of decision-making are needed to develop for a further study.

Optimal Bayesian MCMC based fire brigade non-suppression probability model considering uncertainty of parameters

  • Kim, Sunghyun;Lee, Sungsu
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.8
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    • pp.2941-2959
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    • 2022
  • The fire brigade non-suppression probability model is a major factor that should be considered in evaluating fire-induced risk through fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and also uncertainty is a critical consideration in support of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) fire protection decision-making. This study developed an optimal integrated probabilistic fire brigade non-suppression model considering uncertainty of parameters based on the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach on electrical fire which is one of the most risk significant contributors. The result shows that the log-normal probability model with a location parameter (µ) of 2.063 and a scale parameter (σ) of 1.879 is best fitting to the actual fire experience data. It gives optimal model adequacy performance with Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of -1601.766, residual sum of squares (RSS) of 2.51E-04, and mean squared error (MSE) of 2.08E-06. This optimal log-normal model shows the better performance of the model adequacy than the exponential probability model suggested in the current fire PRA methodology, with a decrease of 17.3% in BIC, 85.3% in RSS, and 85.3% in MSE. The outcomes of this study are expected to contribute to the improvement and securement of fire PRA realism in the support of decision-making for RIPB fire protection programs.

Consideration on the Convention of Space Station as Law-Making Process among Nations (다수국간법정립행위로서의우주기지협정에관한고찰(多数国間法定立行為としての宇宙基地協定に関する一考察))

  • Horish, Saito
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.14
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    • pp.87-110
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    • 2001
  • This Article examines a structure of two Conventions of Space Station, compares 1988 Convention and 1998 Convention, and tries to apply "model" to it. The structure of 1988 Convention shows us three phases: the Convention as a framework, the bilateral memorandum of understanding and the legislation by domestic process of United States. There were many advantageous provisions for United States. In 1998 Convention, however, those provisions are dampened and provisions become impartial, for example, the criminal jurisdiction, the right of intellectual property and the codes of conducts in Space Station. On the other hand, we sets the "model" up, that is "input of national benefits and ideas ${\Rightarrow}$ process of law-making ${\Rightarrow}$ output of common benefits, universal ideas and wastes." In the case of applying this "model" to 1988 and 1998 Conventions, we are convinced of enough possibility to understand and explain the legal system of Space Station by this "model." This result awakes us that study of legal system of Space Station according to the "model" influences the fundamental theory of International Law Study: the relation between international law and domestic law. This "model" has possibility to change the theory of relation between from "international law and domestic law" to "domestic law and domestic law through international legal system." In the end, we should reconsider on "policy-oriented jurisprudence" by professor McDougal to use his key words for explanation of concepts in the "model," because his theory contains important suggestions to the study of law-making process and legal system for outer space activities in the near future.

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A Framework of Internet Shopping Decision Making Based on Semantic Web Constraint Language (의미망 제약식언어를 기반으로 한 인터넷 쇼핑 의사결정 틀)

  • Lee, Myung-Jin;Kim, Hak-Jin;Kim, Woo-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 2008
  • Semantic Web society initially focused only on data but has gradually moved toward knowledge. Recently rule beyond ontology has emerged as a key element of the Semantic Web. All of these activities are obviously aiming at making data and knowledge on the Web sharable and reusable between various entities around the world. If one of ultimate visions of the Semantic Web is to increase human's decision making quality assisted by machines, there is a missing but important part to be shared and reused. It is knowledge about constraints on data and concepts represented by ontology which should be emphasized more. In this paper, we propose Semantic Web Constraint Language (SWCL) based on OWL and show how effective SWCL can be in representing and solving an internet shopper's decision making problem by an implementation of a shopping agent in the Semantic Web environment.

모바일택배시스템의 활용이 사용자의 의사결정과정에 미치는 영향 - 유비쿼터스 의사결정지원시스템의 관점에서 -

  • Lee, Geon-Chang;Jeong, Nam-Ho
    • 한국경영정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1072-1077
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    • 2008
  • This study is aimed at proposing a new approach to designing UDSS (Ubiquitous Decision Support System) which allows context-awareness and connectivity. In the previous studies, the need to design UDSS and analyze its performance empirically was raised. However, due to the complexity of empirical approaches, there is no study attempting to tackle this research issue so far. To fill this research void, this study proposes a Mobile Delivery System (MDS) as a form of UDSS, empirically analyzing how users perceive its context-awareness and connectivity functions. Especially, to add more rigor to the proposed approach to know how much it works well in the decision-making contexts, we considered three decision making phases (intelligence, design, choice) in the research model. With the valid questionnaires collected from 340 users of the MDS, we induced statistically proven results showing that both context-awareness and connectivity of the proposed UDSS (or MDS) influence the decision making steps positively and then contribute to improving the decision making quality.

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Study on the Application of Decision Trees for Personalization based on e-CRM (e-CRM에서 개인화 향상을 위한 의사결정나무 사용에 관한 연구)

  • 양정희;한서정
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2003
  • Expectation and interest about e-CRM are rising for more efficient customer management in on-line including electronic commerce. The decision-making tree can be used usefully as the data mining technology for e-CRM. In this paper, the representative decision making techniques, CART, C4.5, CHAID analyzed the differences in personalization point of view with actuality customer data through an experiment. With these analysis data, it is proposed a new decision-making tree system that has big advantage in personalization techniques. Through new system, it can get following advantage. First, it can form superior model more qualitatively in personalization by adding individual's weight value. Second it can supply information personalized more to customer. Third, it can have high position about customer's loyalty than other site of similar types of business. Fourth, it can reduce expense that cost marketing and decision-making. Fifth, it becomes possible that know that customer through smooth communication with customer who use personalized service wants and make from goods or service's quality to more worth thing.

A Knowledge-based Fuzzy Multi-criteria Evaluation Model of Construction Robotic Systems

  • Yoo, Wi-Sung
    • Architectural research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2010
  • In recent years, construction projects have been forced to cope with lack of skilled labor and increasing hazard circumstance of human operations. A construction robotic system has been frequently accomplished as one alterative for overcoming these difficulties in increasing construction quality, enhancing productivity, and improving safety. However, while the complexity of such a system increases, there are few ways to carry out an assessment of the system. This paper introduces a knowledge-based multi-criteria decision-making process to assist decision makers in systematically evaluating an automated system for a given project and quantifying its system performance index. The model employs linguistic terms and fuzzy numbers in attempts to deal with the vagueness inherent in experts' or decision makers' subjective opinions, considering the contribution resulted from their knowledge on a decision problem. As an illustrative case, the system, called Robotic-based Construction Automation, for constructing steel erection of high-rise buildings was applied into this model. The results show the model's capacities and imply the application to other extended types of construction robotic systems.

The Citizen Advisory Model for E-Government Service

  • Varavithya, Wanchai;Esichaikul, Vatcharaporn
    • 한국디지털정책학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.233-246
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    • 2004
  • This paper proposes a design of a citizen advisory model under the consideration of the unique characteristics of the government, namely complex structure of goals, predominance by laws, knowledge driven organization, and the good governance objectives. The legal knowledge-based technology is explored with the aims to facilitate citizens in accessing e-government services in five phases: search, intake, decision-making, explanations, and objection and appeal phases. The design of the citizen advisory model consists of four components: specific service advice, customized form fill-in service, decision-making services, and a statement of reasons service. The prototype of the citizen advisory model is illustrated using the Thai Anti Dumping and Countervailing Act 1999 as a legal domain and e-government services example.

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A Decision-making Strategy to Maximize the Information Value of Weather Forecasts in a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Problem of the Leisure Industry (레저산업의 고객관계관리 문제에서 기상예보의 정보가치를 최대화시키는 의사결정전략 분석)

  • Lee, Joong-Woo;Lee, Ki-Kwang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a method for the estimation and analysis of the economic value of weather forecasts for CRM decision-making problems in the leisure industry. Value is calculated in terms of the customer's satisfaction returned from the user's decision under the specific payoff structure, which is itself represented by a customer's satisfaction ratio model. The decision is assessed by a modified cost-loss model to consider the customer's satisfaction instead of the loss or cost. Site-specific probability and deterministic forecasts, each of which is provided in Korea and China, are applied to generate and analyze the optimal decisions. The application results demonstrate that probability forecasts have greater value than deterministic forecasts, provided that the users can locate the optimal decision threshold. This paper also presents the optimal decision strategy for specific customers with a variety of satisfaction patterns.

User Adoption Model under Service Competitive Market Structure for Next-Generation Media Services

  • Jeon, Hyo-Ri;Shin, Yong-Hee;Choi, Mun-Kee;Rho, Jae-Jeung;Kim, Myung-Seuk
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.110-120
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    • 2011
  • As information technology rapidly develops and the period required to enter new technology shortens, there emerges a wide variety of alternatives for consumers. When there are many alternatives in the market, users choose after making comparisons. This process of making comparisons is our research key. We established a research model to find a mixed effect that comes from new attitudes to technology adoption and alternative's continuous usage intention. The effect is revealed through a relative attractiveness (RA) factor to explain a user's process of comparison. We empirically test our research model in the new media services, such as mobile TV, web TV, and mobile IPTV. According to our research results, a continuous usage intention of an existing technology is an important factor to explain the adoption of a new technology. So, the contribution of our research is in finding a role for the RA factor in research in new technology adoption.