• Title/Summary/Keyword: Model Ensemble

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A Study on the Effect of Cumulus Parameterization and Microphysics on Ozone Simulations during Long-range Transport Process over Northeast Asia (동북아 장거리 수송 과정에서 적운 모수화 및 미세물리과정이 오존 모사농도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kang, Jeong-Eon;Kim, Cheol-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.135-151
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    • 2013
  • This study has been carried out to analyze the sensitivity of ozone concentrations by employing different options of cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and microphysics schemes in MM5 models. These sensitivity tests were applied to long-range transport case of higher ozone over Northeast Asia. Employed CPS schemes are Betts-Miller (BM), Grell (GR), Kain-Fritsch2 (KF2), Anthes-Kuo (AK), None scheme (grid scale physics only), and four microphysics used here are Simple ice, Reisner1, Reisner2, Schultz scheme in MM5. We chose two cases of high ozone long range transport case by employing both concentrations ozone level and backward trajectory model. The results showed that modeled ozone concentrations indicated about 10% differences among CPSs. Of the all options, GR and KF2 (for CPS), and Rersiner-1 and Resiner-2 (for microphysics) showed relatively good and stable variations against ensemble mean values. For both CPS and microphysics schemes, the difference of precipitation arising from different parameterization schemes was significant by itself, but the resultant ozone variations showed only marginal. But the cloud fraction differences arising from different parameterization schemes showed better correlation with ozone variations than precipitation differences, indicating that the photochemical ozone generation variations is more dominant by cloud fraction than wet removal process for high and long-ranged transported ozone cases over Northeast Asia.

DEEP-South: The Photometric Study of Non-Principal Axis Rotator (5247) Krylov

  • Lee, Hee-Jae;Moon, Hong-Kyu;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kim, Chun-Hwey;Durech, Josef;Park, Jintae;Roh, Dong-Goo;Choi, Young-Jun;Yim, Hong-Suh;Oh, Young-Seok
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.49.2-49.2
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    • 2016
  • The number of discovery of asteroids with peculiar rotational states has recently increased, and hence a novel approach for lightcurve analysis is considered to be critical. In order to investigate objects such as Non-Principal Axis (NPA) rotator, we selected a NPA candidate, (5247) Kryolv as our target considering its Principal Axis Rotation (PAR) code and the visibility in early 2016. The observations of Krylov were made using Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) 1.6 m telescopes installed at the three southern sites with TO (Target of Opportunity) observation mode. We conducted R-band time-series photometry over a total of 51 nights from January to April 2016 with several exposures during each allocated run. The ensemble normalization photometry was employed using the AAVSO Photomtric All-Sky Survey (APASS) catalog for the standardization. We successfully confirmed its NPA spin state based on the deviation from the reduced lightcurve, and thus Krylov is recorded as the first NPA rotator of its kind in the main-belt, with its precession and rotation periods, $P{\varphi}=81.18h$ and $P_{\Psi}=67.17h$, respectively. In this paper, we present the spin direction, the 3D shape model and taxonomy of the newly confirmed NPA asteroid (5247) Krylov.

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A Method for Spam Message Filtering Based on Lifelong Machine Learning (Lifelong Machine Learning 기반 스팸 메시지 필터링 방법)

  • Ahn, Yeon-Sun;Jeong, Ok-Ran
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.1393-1399
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    • 2019
  • With the rapid growth of the Internet, millions of indiscriminate advertising SMS are sent every day because of the convenience of sending and receiving data. Although we still use methods to block spam words manually, we have been actively researching how to filter spam in a various ways as machine learning emerged. However, spam words and patterns are constantly changing to avoid being filtered, so existing machine learning mechanisms cannot detect or adapt to new words and patterns. Recently, the concept of Lifelong Learning emerged to overcome these limitations, using existing knowledge to keep learning new knowledge continuously. In this paper, we propose a method of spam filtering system using ensemble techniques of naive bayesian which is most commonly used in document classification and LLML(Lifelong Machine Learning). We validate the performance of lifelong learning by applying the model ELLA and the Naive Bayes most commonly used in existing spam filters.

Diffusion Behavior of n-Alkanes by Molecular Dynamics Simulations

  • Goo, Geun-Hoi;Sung, Gi-Hong;Lee, Song-Hi;Chang, Tai-Hyun
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1595-1603
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    • 2002
  • In this paper we have presented the results of diffusion behavior of model systems for eight liquid n-alkanes ($C_{12}$-$C_{44}$) in a canonical (NVT) ensemble at several temperatures using molecular dynamics simulations. For these n-alkanes of small chain length n, the chains are clearly <$R_{ee}^2$>/6<$R_g^2$>>1 and non-Gaussian. This result implies that the liquid n-alkanes over the whole temperatures considered are far away from the Rouse regime, though the ratio becomes close to the unity as n increases. Calculated self-diffusion constants $D_{self}$ are comparable with experimental results and the Arrhenius plot of self-diffusion constants versus inverse temperature shows a different temperature dependence of diffusion on the chain length. The global rotational motion of n-alkanes is examined by characterizing the orientation relaxation of the end-to-end vector and it is found that the ratio ${\tau}1/{\tau}2$ is less than 3, the value expected for a isotropically diffusive rotational process. The friction constants ${\xi}$of the whole molecules of n-alkanes are calculated directly from the force auto-correlation (FAC) functions and compared with the monomeric friction constants ${\xi}_D$ extracted from $D_{self}$. Both the friction constants give a correct qualitative trends: decrease with increasing temperature and increase with increasing chain length. The friction constant calculated from the FAC's decreases very slowly with increasing temperature, while the monomeric friction constant varies rapidly with temperature. By considering the orientation relaxation of local vectors and diffusion of each site, it is found that rotational and translational diffusions of the ends are faster than those of the center.

Flow Structure of Conical Vortices Generated on the Roof of a Rectangular Prism (직사각형 프리즘 상면에서 발생되는 원추형 와의 유동구조)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Cheon;Ji, Ho-Seong;Seong, Seung-Hak
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.713-721
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    • 2001
  • Characteristics of the conical vortices on the roof corner of a rectangular prism have been investigated by using a PIV(Particle Image Velocimetry) technique. The Reynolds number based on the free stream velocity and the height of the model was 5.3$\times$10$^3$. The mean, instantaneous velocity vector fields, vorticity fields, and turbulent kinetic energy distribution were measured for two different angles of attack, 30$^{\circ}$and 45$^{\circ}$. The PIV measurements clearly observed not only the conical main vortex and the secondary vortex but also the tertiary vortex which is firstly reported in this paper. Asymmetric formation of the corner vortex for the case of 30$^{\circ}$angle of attack produces relatively the high magnitude of vorticity and turbulent kinetic energy around the bigger vortex which generates the peak suction pressure on the roof. Fairly symmetric features of the roof vortex are observed in the case of 45$^{\circ}$angle of attack, however, the dynamic characteristics are proved to be asymmetric due to the rectangular shape of the roof.

Prediction Skill for East Asian Summer Monsoon Indices in a KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) (기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)의 여름철 동아시아 몬순 지수 예측 성능 평가)

  • Lee, So-Jeong;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Min;Hwang, Seung-On;Lee, Johan;Boo, Kyung-On
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.293-309
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    • 2020
  • There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.

Multiple SVM Classifier for Pattern Classification in Data Mining (데이터 마이닝에서 패턴 분류를 위한 다중 SVM 분류기)

  • Kim Man-Sun;Lee Sang-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.289-293
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    • 2005
  • Pattern classification extracts various types of pattern information expressing objects in the real world and decides their class. The top priority of pattern classification technologies is to improve the performance of classification and, for this, many researches have tried various approaches for the last 40 years. Classification methods used in pattern classification include base classifier based on the probabilistic inference of patterns, decision tree, method based on distance function, neural network and clustering but they are not efficient in analyzing a large amount of multi-dimensional data. Thus, there are active researches on multiple classifier systems, which improve the performance of classification by combining problems using a number of mutually compensatory classifiers. The present study identifies problems in previous researches on multiple SVM classifiers, and proposes BORSE, a model that, based on 1:M policy in order to expand SVM to a multiple class classifier, regards each SVM output as a signal with non-linear pattern, trains the neural network for the pattern and combine the final results of classification performance.

A redistribution model for spatially dependent Parrondo games (공간의존 파론도 게임의 재분배 모형)

  • Lee, Jiyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 2016
  • An ansemble of N players arranged in a circle play a spatially dependent Parrondo game B. One player is randomly selected to play game B, which is based on the toss of a biased coin, with the amount of the bias depending on states of the selected player's two nearest neighbors. The player wins one unit with heads and loses one unit with tails. In game A' the randomly chosen player transfers one unit of capital to another player who is randomly chosen among N - 1 players. Game A' is fair with respect to the ensemble's total profit. The games are said to exhibit the Parrondo effect if game B is losing and the random mixture game C is winning and the reverse-Parrondo effect if game B is winning and the random mixture game C is losing. We compute the exact mean profits for games B and C by applying a state space reduction method with lumped Markov chains and we sketch the Parrondo and reverse-Parrondo regions for $3{\leq}N{\leq}6$.

Assessment of modal parameters considering measurement and modeling errors

  • Huang, Qindan;Gardoni, Paolo;Hurlebaus, Stefan
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.717-733
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    • 2015
  • Modal parameters of a structure are commonly used quantities for system identification and damage detection. With a limited number of studies on the statistics assessment of modal parameters, this paper presents procedures to properly account for the uncertainties present in the process of extracting modal parameters. Particularly, this paper focuses on how to deal with the measurement error in an ambient vibration test and the modeling error resulting from a modal parameter extraction process. A bootstrap approach is adopted, when an ensemble of a limited number of noised time-history response recordings is available. To estimate the modeling error associated with the extraction process, a model prediction expansion approach is adopted where the modeling error is considered as an "adjustment" to the prediction obtained from the extraction process. The proposed procedures can be further incorporated into the probabilistic analysis of applications where the modal parameters are used. This study considers the effects of the measurement and modeling errors and can provide guidance in allocating resources to improve the estimation accuracy of the modal data. As an illustration, the proposed procedures are applied to extract the modal data of a damaged beam, and the extracted modal data are used to detect potential damage locations using a damage detection method. It is shown that the variability in the modal parameters can be considered to be quite low due to the measurement and modeling errors; however, this low variability has a significant impact on the damage detection results for the studied beam.

Flow Field Measurement in Catalytic Converter-Comparison with Computational Fluid Dynamics Analyses (촉매 변환기의 내부 유동장 측정-CFD 해석과 비교)

  • Yoo, Seoung-Chool;Jang, Sung-Kuk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.197-202
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    • 2014
  • The efficiency of a catalytic converter depends on the flow distribution across a system's chemically active substrate. If irregularities or non-uniform flow patterns exist, the system's conversion efficiency decreases, whereas the manufacturing cost increases. Therefore, it is important to analyze the internal flow of a catalytic converter. In this study, flow pattern measurements along the minor axis were recorded at the mid and exit planes of a ceramic honeycomb catalytic converter at flow rates of 37.8 l/s and 94.4 l/s. Flow distributions of the measurement plans were compared with an automotive company's computed velocity profiles. Measurements along the minor axis showed uneven velocity profiles. The ${\upsilon}$-velocity components between the honeycomb bricks were small but somewhat erratic opposite the intake side of the converter, however, they became flatter in measurements recorded near the intake entrance. For almost all velocity values, the computer model suggested velocities greater than the measured values.