• 제목/요약/키워드: Mitigation strategies

검색결과 196건 처리시간 0.025초

기후변화 시나리오를 적용한 산사태 피해면적 변화 예측 (Predicting Landslide Damaged Area According to Climate Change Scenarios)

  • 유송
    • 한국농림기상학회지
    • /
    • 제25권4호
    • /
    • pp.376-386
    • /
    • 2023
  • 기후변화로 인해 우리나라의 산사태 피해는 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 사방사업 등 산사태 피해저감을 효과적으로 수립하기 위해서는 기후변화 영향을 고려하여 장기간의 산사태 위험도를 추정할 필요가 있다. 이 연구에서는 다변량 회귀분석을 통해 기후변화에 따른 산사태 피해면적의 변화를 예측하였다. 1980-2010 년의 산사태 피해면적과 강우관측자료를 학습자료로 적용하여 다변량 회귀모형을 구축하였다. 이때 강우관측자료를 통해 SSP 시나리오에서는 제공하는 7가지 강우인자를 추출하였다. 이후 분산팽창지수로 다중공선성을 검정하고 주성분 분석을 통해 차원을 축소하여 2개의 주성분을 독립변인으로 하여 산사태 피해면적 추정 모형을 도출하였다. 기후변화 시나리오를 활용하여 2030-2100년까지의 산사태 피해면적 변화를 추정한 결과, 산사태 피해면적은 1981년-2010년의 연평균 산사태 면적의 최대 2배 이상으로 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구의 결과는 미래 기후변화를 고려한 산사태 피해저감 대책 수립 및 보강의 필요성을 제시하는 기초자료로 활용 가능할 것으로 보인다.

도시 물 문제 저감을 위한 회복탄력적 사회기반시설 구축: 1. 도시 홍수 문제 구조적 대안의 내구성 평가 (Establishment of Resilient Infrastructures for the Mitigation of an Urban Water Problem: 1. Robustness Assessment of Structural Alternatives for the Problem of Urban Floods)

  • 이창민;정지현;안진성;김재영;최용주
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
    • /
    • 제3권2호
    • /
    • pp.117-125
    • /
    • 2016
  • 도시 내 인구집중과 기후변화로 인해 다양한 형태의 도시 물 문제가 발생한다. 이에 대한 피해 예방과 사회적 손실 최소화를 위해 회복탄력적인 대안 수립이 필요하다. 본 연구는 도시 물 문제 저감을 위한 회복탄력적 사회기반시설 구축 전략 수립에 관한 기초연구로서, 대표적인 도시 물 문제 중 하나인 도시홍수를 사례로 하여 구조적 대안의 내구성을 평가하였다. 내구성 평가를 위한 지표로 내구성 지수 (robustness index, RI) 및 비용지수 (cost index, CI)를 결합한 내구성-비용지수 (robustness cost index, RCI)를 제안하고, 이를 강남역 상습침수구역에 적용하여 기존 기반시설과 구조적 대안 (하수관거 확충, 저류조 설치, 옥상녹화)을 평가하였다. 그 결과, 2~20년 빈도의 강우강도범위에서 저류조와 옥상녹화설치가 상대적으로 높은 RCI 값을 나타내었고 두 대안 중 RCI가 보다 높은 대안은 강우강도에 따라 달라지는 경향을 보였다. 30년 빈도 강우강도에 대하여는 저류조와 옥상녹화를 병용 설치하는 대안이 가장 높은 RCI 값을 나타내어 가장 회복탄력적인 대안으로 확인되었다. 최종적으로 재해의 계획규모에 따른 현행 사회기반시설의 내구성 평가 및 최적의 구조적 대안 선택 절차를 수립하여, 도시홍수 문제에 대한 회복탄력적 사회기반시설 구축 전략을 제시하였다.

활 전복 수입에 의한 전복허피스바이러스감염증 (abalone herpes-like virus) 유입 위험평가 (A Stochastic Model to Quantify the Risk of Introduction of Abalone Herpes-like Virus Through Import of Abalones)

  • 박선일
    • 한국임상수의학회지
    • /
    • 제31권1호
    • /
    • pp.40-45
    • /
    • 2014
  • Abalone herpes-like virus (AbHV) is a fatal disease of abalones that impose severe economic impacts on the industry of infected regions due to high mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of introducing AbHV into Korea through the importation of live abalones for human consumption by import risk analysis (IRA). Monte Carlo simulation models were developed to provide estimates of the probability that a ton of imported abalone contains at least one AbHV-infected individual, using historical trade data and relevant literatures. A sensitivity analysis with 5,000 iterations was also conducted to determine the extent to which input parameters affect the outcome of the model. Although many uncertainties were present in the data, the results indicated that, if 5,000 tons of abalone were imported from a hypothetical exporting country with low prevalence of AbHV (model 1), there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 4,816 of those tons (96.3%), while there would be at least one AbHV-infected abalones in 100% of those tons imported from country with high prevalence (model 2). Sensitivity analysis indicated that for model 1, prevalence was the strongest influence factor on the predicted number of infections. For model 2, background mortality and washing to reduce the risk of surface contamination during processing were the major contributing factors. Risk management strategies need to be enforced to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in that at least one infected abalone would remain in a consignment from country even with a low prevalence of AbHV infection. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the development of AbHV management program, and with more accurate data this IRA model will aid science-based decision-making on mitigation strategies to reduce the risk of AbHV introduction in Korea.

Seismic mitigation of substation cable connected equipment using friction pendulum systems

  • Karami-Mohammadi, Reza;Mirtaheri, Masoud;Salkhordeh, Mojtaba;Mosaffa, Erfan;Mahdavi, Golsa;Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제72권6호
    • /
    • pp.785-796
    • /
    • 2019
  • Power transmission substations are susceptible to potential damage under seismic excitations. Two of the major seismic failure modes in substation supplies are: the breakage of brittle insulator, and conductor end fittings. This paper presents efficient isolation strategies for seismically strengthening of a two-item set of equipment including capacitive voltage transformer (CVT) adjacent to a Lightning Arrester (LA). Two different strategies are proposed, Case A: implementation of base isolation at the base of the CVT, while the LA is kept fixed-base, and Case B: implementation of base isolation at the base of the LA, while the CVT is kept fixed-base. Both CVT and LA are connected to each other using a cable during the dynamic excitation. The probabilistic seismic behavior is measured by Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), and a series of appropriate damage states are proposed. Finally, the fragility curves are derived for both the systems. It is found that Friction Pendulum System (FPS) isolator has the potential of decreasing flexural stresses caused by intense ground motions. The research has shown that when the FPS is placed under LA, i.e. Case B (as oppose to Case A), the efficiency of the system is improved in terms of reducing the forces and stresses at the bottom of the porcelain. Several parametric studies are also performed to determine the optimum physical properties of the FPS.

소셜미디어 내 의료소비자의 환자안전 관심에 대한 구조적 토픽 모델링 분석 (Structural Topic Modeling Analysis of Patient Safety Interest among Health Consumers in Social Media)

  • 김나리;이남주
    • 대한간호학회지
    • /
    • 제54권2호
    • /
    • pp.266-278
    • /
    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study aimed to investigate healthcare consumers' interest in patient safety on social media using structural topic modeling (STM) and to identify changes in interest over time. Methods: Analyzing 105,727 posts from Naver news comments, blogs, internet cafés, and Twitter between 2010 and 2022, this study deployed a Python script for data collection and preprocessing. STM analysis was conducted using R, with the documents' publication years serving as metadata to trace the evolution of discussions on patient safety. Results: The analysis identified a total of 13 distinct topics, organized into three primary communities: (1) "Demand for systemic improvement of medical accidents," underscoring the need for legal and regulatory reform to enhance accountability; (2) "Efforts of the government and organizations for safety management," highlighting proactive risk mitigation strategies; and (3) "Medical accidents exposed in the media," reflecting widespread concerns over medical negligence and its repercussions. These findings indicate pervasive concerns regarding medical accountability and transparency among healthcare consumers. Conclusion: The findings emphasize the importance of transparent healthcare policies and practices that openly address patient safety incidents. There is clear advocacy for policy reforms aimed at increasing the accountability and transparency of healthcare providers. Moreover, this study highlights the significance of educational and engagement initiatives involving healthcare consumers in fostering a culture of patient safety. Integrating consumer perspectives into patient safety strategies is crucial for developing a robust safety culture in healthcare.

The role of dry land forests for climate change adaptation: the case of Liben Woreda, Southern Oromia, Ethiopia

  • Amanuel, Wondimagegn;Tesfaye, Musse;Worku, Adefires;Seyoum, Gezahegne;Mekonnen, Zenebe
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • 제43권2호
    • /
    • pp.85-97
    • /
    • 2019
  • Background: Despite the increasing role of dry forests in climate change adaptation and mitigation, these versatile resources has got less attention in the national and regional planning, their potential to enhance the local and national economy has been overlooked, and their contribution to sustainable environmental management has not been recognized. Hence, the objective of this study was to assess the socioeconomic contribution of dry forests and forest products to climate change adaptation in the Liben Woreda, Southern Oromia region of Ethiopia. Methods: For this study, an integrated qualitative and quantitative approach was used. A total of 74 households from villages in the Bulbul, Boba, and Melka-Guba kebeles were randomly selected for the household survey. Results: Results showed that 75% of the respondents in the area indicated that climate change has become their major sources of vulnerability, where drought has been manifested in the form of crops failure and massive death of livestock particularly cattle species. The main income strategies of the study households include livestock, crop, forests such as gum and resins, firewood and charcoal and non-farm activities such as in the form of petty trade, wage and aid. The average total household income was ETB 11,209.7. Out of this, dry forest income constituted 15% of the total income. In addition to using dry forests as rangeland for livestock, the communities collect wood for construction, fodder, traditional medicine, and forest food both for subsistence and for sale. On the other hand, dry forest products could be considered as less vulnerable, rather resilient livelihood strategies to climate- and environment-related risks compared to livestock and crop production such as in the face of drought periods. More than 48.6% of the households argued that the income generated from dry forests increased substantially due to increment in the level of engagement of family members in forest based income activities. On the other hand, 35.8% of the households responded that livestock production, particularly camels and goats, have been making the livelihood strategies of the respondents more resilient indicating the shift made from grazers browsers to livestock. In general trends show that, the trends of livelihood dependency on dry forest were highly increasing indicating the importance of dry forest income in responsse to frequent droughts. Conclusions: Dry forest income has been becoming crucial livelihood staretgy in response to frequent droughts in the study area and hence, it is important to improve the management of dry forests for livelihood enhancement, while also securing their long-term ecological functions.

Feed Resources for Animals in Asia: Issues, Strategies for Use, Intensification and Integration for Increased Productivity

  • Devendra, C.;Leng, R.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • 제24권3호
    • /
    • pp.303-321
    • /
    • 2011
  • The availability and efficient use of the feed resources in Asia are the primary drivers of performance to maximise productivity from animals. Feed security is fundamental to the management, extent of use, conservation and intensification for productivity enhancement. The awesome reality is that current supplies of animal proteins are inadequate to meet human requirements in the face of rapidly depleting resources: arable land, water, fossil fuels, nitrogenous and other fertilisers, and decreased supplies of cereal grains. The contribution of the ruminant sector lags well behind that of non-ruminant pigs and poultry. It is compelling therefore to shift priority for the development of ruminants (buffaloes, cattle, goats and sheep) in key agro-ecological zones (AEZs), making intensive use of the available biomass from the forage resources, crop residues, agro-industrial by-products (AIBP) and other non-conventional feed resources (NCFR). Definitions are given of successful and failed projects on feed resource use. These were used to analyse 12 case studies, which indicated the value of strong participatory efforts with farmers, empowerment, and the benefits from animals of productivity-enhancing technologies and integrated natural resource management (NRM). However, wider replication and scaling up were inadequate in project formulation, including systems methodologies that promoted technology adoption. There was overwhelming emphasis on component technology applications that were duplicated across countries, often wasteful, the results and relevance of which were not clear. Technology delivery via the traditional model of research-extension linkage was also inadequate, and needs to be expanded to participatory research-extension-farmer linkages to accelerate diffusion of technologies, wider adoption and impacts. Other major limitations concerned with feed resource use are failure to view this issue from a farming systems perspective, strong disciplinary bias, and poor links to real farm situations. It is suggested that improved efficiency in feed resource use and increased productivity from animals in the future needs to be cognisant of nine strategies. These include priorities for feed resource use; promoting intensive use of crop residues; intensification of integrated ruminant-oil palm systems and use of oil palm by-products; priority for urgent, wider technology application, adoption and scaling up; rigorous application of systems methodologies; development of adaptation and mitigation options for the effects of climate change on feed resources; strengthening research-extension-farmer linkages; development of year round feeding systems; and striving for sustainability of integrated farming systems. These strategies together form the challenges for the future.

Evaluation of Bioremediation Effectiveness by Resolving Rate-Limiting Parameters in Diesel-Contaminated Soil

  • Joo, Choon-Sung;Oh, Young-Sook;Chung, Wook-Jin
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
    • /
    • 제11권4호
    • /
    • pp.607-613
    • /
    • 2001
  • The biodegradation rates of diesel oil by a selected diesel-degrading bacterium, Pseudomonas stutzeri strain Y2G1, and microbial consortia composed of combinations of 5 selected diesel-degrading bacterial were determined in liquid and soil systems. The diesel degradation rate by strain Y2G1 linearly increased $(R^2=0.98)$ as the diesel concentration increased up to 12%, and a degradation rate as high as 5.64 g/l/day was obtained. The diesel degradation by strain Y2G1 was significantly affected by several environmental factors, and the optimal conditions for pH, temperature, and moisture content were at pH8, $25^{\circ}C$, and 10%, respectively. In the batch soil microcosm tests, inoculation, especially in the form of a consortium, and the addition of nutrients both significantly enhanced the diesel degradation by a factor of 1.5 and 4, respectively. Aeration of the soil columns effectively accelerated the diesel degradation, and the initial degradation rate was obviously stimulated with the addition of inorganic nutrients. Based on these results, it was concluded that the major rate-limiting factors in the tested diesel-contaminated soil were the presence of inorganic nutrients, oxygen, and diesel-degrading microorganisms. To resolve these limiting parameters, bioremediation strategies were specifically designed for the tested soil, and the successful mitigation of the limiting parameters resulted in an enhancement of the bioremediation efficiency by a factor of 11.

  • PDF

저탄소 경로 모형을 활용한 2050년 한국의 온실가스 감축 시나리오 비교 분석 (Comparative Analysis of Scenarios for Reducing GHG Emissions in Korea by 2050 Using the Low Carbon Path Calculator)

  • 박년배;유정화;조미현;윤성권;전의찬
    • 한국대기환경학회지
    • /
    • 제28권5호
    • /
    • pp.556-570
    • /
    • 2012
  • The Low Carbon Path Calculator is an excel-based model to project greenhouse gas emissions from 2009 to 2050, which is based on the 2050 Pathways Calculator developed by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Scenarios are developed to reduce GHG emissions in Korea at 50% based on 2005 levels by 2050 using a Low Carbon Path Calculator. They were classified in four different cases, which are high renewable, high nuclear, high CCS and mixed option scenarios. The objectives of this study are to compare scenarios in terms of GHG emissions, final energy, primary energy and electricity generation and examine the usefulness of that model in terms of identifying pathways towards a low carbon emission society. This model will enhance the understanding of the pathways toward a low carbon society and the level of the climate change policy for policy makers, stakeholders, and the public. This study can be considered as a reference for developing strategies in reducing GHG emissions in the long term.

Wind-Induced Motion of Tall Buildings: Designing for Occupant Comfort

  • Burton, M.D.;Kwok, K.C.S.;Abdelrazaq, A.
    • 국제초고층학회논문집
    • /
    • 제4권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2015
  • A team of researchers and practitioners were recently assembled to prepare a monograph on "Wind-Induced Motion of Tall Buildings: Designing for Habitability". This monograph presents a state-of-the-art report of occupant response to wind-induced building motion and acceptability criteria for wind-excited tall buildings. It provides background information on a range of pertinent subjects, including: ${\bullet}$ Physiological, psychological and behavioural traits of occupant response to wind-induced building motion; ${\bullet}$ A summary of investigations and findings of human response to real and simulated building motions based on field studies and motion simulator experiments; ${\bullet}$ A review of serviceability criteria to assess the acceptability of wind-induced building motion adopted by international and country-based standards organizations; ${\bullet}$ General acceptance guidelines of occupant response to wind-induced building motion based on peak acceleration thresholds; and ${\bullet}$ Mitigation strategies to reduce wind-induced building motion through structural optimization, aerodynamic treatment and vibration dissipation/absorption. This monograph is to be published by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and equips building owners and tall building design professionals with a better understanding of the complex nature of occupant response to and acceptability of wind-induced building motion. This paper is a brief summary of the works reported in the monograph.