• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.55-67
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• 1998

Recent work by Shin and Sarkar (1996) examines model misspecification problems for nonstationary time series. Shin and Sarkar introduce a general regression model with integrated errors and one system of integrated regressors and discuss the limiting distributions of the OLS estimators and the usual OLS statistics such as $\hat{\sigma^2}$t, DW and $R^2$. We analyze three different model misspecification problems through a Monte Carlo study and investigate each model misspecification problem. Our Monte Carlo experiments show that DW and $R^2$ can be in general used as diagnostic tools to detect spurious regression, misspecification of nonstationary autoregressive and polynomial regression models.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.171-180
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• 1997

Effects of order misspecification on statistical behavior of unit root tests are studied. We derive the limiting distributions of the Dickey-Fuller test statistics whose numerators are of the form c .int. W dW + .kappa. where W is a standard Brownian motion on [0, 1] and c is a real number. The term .kappa. is a major consequence of order misspecification and its explict expression is derived. Based on an analysis of .kappa., effects of order misspecification on unit root tests for AR(2), ARMA(1, 1), and AR(3) models are investigated.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.173-180
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• 1980

Hocking, Rao, Rosenberg and Levy and Walls and Weeks have given some results for the misspecification in univariate regression model. We give similar results for a multivariate regression model.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.67-90
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• 1998

In this paper we analytically study model misspecification that arises in regression analysis of nonstationary seasonal time series. We assume the underlying data generating process is a seasonally or a regularly and seasonally integrated process. We first study consequences of totally misspecified cases where seasonal indicator variables, a linear time trend, or another statistically independent seasonally integrated process are used as predictor variables in order to model the nonstationary seasonal behavior of the dependent variable. Then we study consequences of partially misspecified cases where the dependent variable and a predictor variable are cointegrated at some, but not all of the frequencies corresponding to the nonstationary roots.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.609-620
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• 2005

In the secondary data analysis for categorical data, situations often arise in which the estimated cell variances are available, but not the full matrix of variances. In this case researchers are often inclined to use Pearson-type test statistics for homogeneity. However, for a complex sample observed cell proportions are not distributed as multinomial and Pearson-type test statistic generally is not distributed asymptotically as chi-square distribution. This paper evaluates powers for Wald test and Pearson-type test and the first order corrected test of Pearson-type test for homogeneity. The resulting power curves indicate that as the misspecification effect increases, the amount of inflation of significance level and the loss of power Pearson-type test are getting more severe.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.447-463
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• 2002

The heat demand prediction is an essential issue in management of district heating system. Without an accurate prediction through the lead-time period, it might be impossible to make a rational decision on many issues such as heat production scheduling and heat exchange among the plants which are very critical for the district heating company. The heat demand varies with the temperature as well as the time nonlinearly. And the parametric specification of the heat demand model would cause a misspecification bias in prediction. A nonparametric model for the short-term heat demand prediction has been developed as an alternative to avoiding the misspecification error and tested with the actual data. The prediction errors are reasonably small enough to use the model to predict a few hour ahead heat demand.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.783-789
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• 2008

We investigate the effects of the misspecification of cointegrating(CI) ranks at other frequencies on the inference of seasonal models at the frequency of interest; our study includes tests for CI ranks and estimation of CI vectors. Earlier studies focused mostly on a single frequency corresponding to one seasonal root at a time, ignoring possible cointegration at the remaining frequencies. We investigate the effects of the mis-specification, especially in finite samples, by adopting Gaussian reduced rank(GRR) estimation by Ahn and Reinsel (1994) that considers cointegration at all frequencies of seasonal unit roots simultaneously. It is observed that the identification of the seasonal CI rank at the frequency of interest is sensitive to the mis-prespecification of the CI ranks at other frequencies, mainly when the CI ranks at the remaining frequencies are underspecified.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.1153-1165
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• 2017

구조방정식모형은 사회과학 및 행동과학 연구 분야에서 이론검정을 위해 주로 사용되는 통계방법이다. 최근 이 통계기법에 대한 방법론적 이슈로서 모형명세화 오류와 소표본 문제가 부각되고 있다. 그런데 이 문제들이 구조방정식모형의 대표 추정 방법인 최대우도법에 위한 이론검정에 어떤 영향을 주는지에 대해 여전히 명확하지 않다. 따라서 본 연구에서 최대우도법 그러고 이에 대한 대안으로 개발된 2단계최소자승법과 2단계능형최소자승법을 정확도와 검정력 관점에서 시뮬레이션을 통해 체계적으로 비교해 본다. 이 실험 결과에 따르면, 모형이 정확하게 설정된 경우, 정확도 기준에서 추정방법들 간의 차이는 미미했다. 하지만 모형오류가 발생한 경우, 2단계능형최소자승법은 다른 방법들보다 표본 크기가 작을 때 훨씬 더 정확한 모수추정치를 산출해 내었다. 그러고 이 방법은 명세화 오류에 관계없이 표본 크기가 작을 때에도 제 2종 오류 (Type II error) 수준이 상대적으로 작거나 만족할만한 수준의 검정력을 보여주었다. 이에 반해 다른 두 방법들은 표본이 작은 경우 또는 명세화 오류가 있는 경우 상당히 높은 수준의 제 2종 오류를 나타내었다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.95-104
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• 2008

This paper addresses issues of robustness in Bayesian optimal design. We may have difficulty applying Bayesian optimal design principles because of the uncertainty of prior distribution. When there are several plausible prior distributions and the efficiency of a design depends on the unknown prior distribution, robustness with respect to misspecification of prior distribution is required. We suggest a new optimal design criterion which has relatively high efficiencies across the class of plausible prior distributions. The criterion is applied to the problem of estimating the turning point of a quadratic regression, and both analytic and numerical results are shown to demonstrate its robustness.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.313-321
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• 2004

In this article we show that the tests of Robinson (1994) may have serious problems in distinguishing between fractionally integrated processes in the context of deterministic trends. The results are obtained via Monte Carlo experiments. A simple procedure, based on the t-values of the coefficients from the differenced regression, is presented to correctly specify the time series of interest and, an empirical application, using data of the US GNP is also carried out at the end of the article.