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Response Modeling for the Marketing Promotion with Weighted Case Based Reasoning Under Imbalanced Data Distribution (불균형 데이터 환경에서 변수가중치를 적용한 사례기반추론 기반의 고객반응 예측)

  • Kim, Eunmi;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2015
  • Response modeling is a well-known research issue for those who have tried to get more superior performance in the capability of predicting the customers' response for the marketing promotion. The response model for customers would reduce the marketing cost by identifying prospective customers from very large customer database and predicting the purchasing intention of the selected customers while the promotion which is derived from an undifferentiated marketing strategy results in unnecessary cost. In addition, the big data environment has accelerated developing the response model with data mining techniques such as CBR, neural networks and support vector machines. And CBR is one of the most major tools in business because it is known as simple and robust to apply to the response model. However, CBR is an attractive data mining technique for data mining applications in business even though it hasn't shown high performance compared to other machine learning techniques. Thus many studies have tried to improve CBR and utilized in business data mining with the enhanced algorithms or the support of other techniques such as genetic algorithm, decision tree and AHP (Analytic Process Hierarchy). Ahn and Kim(2008) utilized logit, neural networks, CBR to predict that which customers would purchase the items promoted by marketing department and tried to optimized the number of k for k-nearest neighbor with genetic algorithm for the purpose of improving the performance of the integrated model. Hong and Park(2009) noted that the integrated approach with CBR for logit, neural networks, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed more improved prediction ability for response of customers to marketing promotion than each data mining models such as logit, neural networks, and SVM. This paper presented an approach to predict customers' response of marketing promotion with Case Based Reasoning. The proposed model was developed by applying different weights to each feature. We deployed logit model with a database including the promotion and the purchasing data of bath soap. After that, the coefficients were used to give different weights of CBR. We analyzed the performance of proposed weighted CBR based model compared to neural networks and pure CBR based model empirically and found that the proposed weighted CBR based model showed more superior performance than pure CBR model. Imbalanced data is a common problem to build data mining model to classify a class with real data such as bankruptcy prediction, intrusion detection, fraud detection, churn management, and response modeling. Imbalanced data means that the number of instance in one class is remarkably small or large compared to the number of instance in other classes. The classification model such as response modeling has a lot of trouble to recognize the pattern from data through learning because the model tends to ignore a small number of classes while classifying a large number of classes correctly. To resolve the problem caused from imbalanced data distribution, sampling method is one of the most representative approach. The sampling method could be categorized to under sampling and over sampling. However, CBR is not sensitive to data distribution because it doesn't learn from data unlike machine learning algorithm. In this study, we investigated the robustness of our proposed model while changing the ratio of response customers and nonresponse customers to the promotion program because the response customers for the suggested promotion is always a small part of nonresponse customers in the real world. We simulated the proposed model 100 times to validate the robustness with different ratio of response customers to response customers under the imbalanced data distribution. Finally, we found that our proposed CBR based model showed superior performance than compared models under the imbalanced data sets. Our study is expected to improve the performance of response model for the promotion program with CBR under imbalanced data distribution in the real world.

Comparison of shaping ability between single length technique and crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file (Mtwo 전동 파일을 사용한 single length technique과 crown-down technique의 근관성형 효율 비교)

  • Lim, Yoo-Kyoung;Park, Jeong-Kil;Hur, Bock;Kim, Hyeon-Cheol
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.385-396
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    • 2007
  • The aims of this study were to compare the shaping effect and safety between single length technique recommended by manufacturer and crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file and to present a modified method in use of Mtwo file. Sixty simulated root canal resin blocks were used. The canals were divided into three groups according to instrument and the manner of using methods. Each group had 20 specimens. Group MT was instrumented with single length technique of Mtwo, group MC was instrumented with crown-down technique of Mtwo and group PT was instrumented with crown-down technique of ProTaper. All of the rotary files used in this study were operated by an electric motor. The scanned canal images of before and after preparation were superimposed. These superimposed images were evaluated at apical 1 to 8 mm levels Angle changes were calculated. The preparation time, weight loss, instrument failure and binding, canal aberrations, and centering ratio were measured. Statistical analysis of the three experimental groups was performed with ANOVA and Duncan's multiple range tests for post-hoc comparison and Fisher's exact test was done for the frequency comparison. In total preparation time, group MT and group MC were less than group PT. In the aberrations, group MT had more elbows than those of group MC and group PT. The binding of group MC was least and group MT was less than group PT (P < 0.05). Under the condition of this study, crown-down technique using Mtwo rotary file is better and safer method than single length technique recommended by the manufacturer.

Change in Potential Productivity of Rice around Lake Juam Due to Construction of Dam by SIMRIW (벼 생장모형 SIMRIW를 이용한 주암호 건설에 따른 주변지역의 벼 잠재생산성 변이 추정)

  • 임준택;윤진일;권병선
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.729-738
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    • 1997
  • To estimate the change in rice productivity around lake Juam due to construction of artificial lake, growth, yield components and yield of rice were measured at different locations around lake Juam for three years from 1994 to 1996. Automated weather stations(AWS) were installed nearby the experimental paddy fields, and daily maximum, average and minimum temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, and precipitation were measured for the whole growing period of rice. Plant height, number of tillers, leaf area and shoot dry weight per hill were observed from 8 to 10 times in the interval of 7 days after transplanting. Yield and yield components of rice were observed at the harvest time. Simulation model of rice productivity used in the study was SIMRIW developed by Horie. The observed data of rice at 5 locations in 1994, 3 locations in 1995 and 4 locations in 1996 were inputted in the model to estimate the unknown parameters. Comparisons between observed and predicted values of shoot dry weights, leaf area indices, and rough rice yield were fairly well, so that SIMRIW appeared to predict relatively well the variations in productivity due to variations of climatic factors in the habitat. Climatic elements prior to as well as posterior to dam construction were generated at six locatons around lake Juam for thirty years by the method of Pickering et al. Climatic elements simulated in the study were daily maximum and minimum temperature, and amount of daily solar radiation. The change in rice productivity around lake Juam due to dam construction were estimated by inputting the generated climatic elements into SIMRIW. Average daily maximum temperature after dam construction appeared to be more or less lower than that before dam construction, while average daily minimum temperature became higher after dam construction. Average amount of daily solar radiation became lower with 0.9 MJ $d^{-1}$ after dam construction. As a result of simulation, the average productivity of habitats around lake Juam decreased about 5.6% by the construction of dam.

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A Review Study on Major Factors Influencing Chlorine Disappearances in Water Storage Tanks (저수조 내 잔류염소 감소에 미치는 주요 영향 인자에 관한 문헌연구)

  • Noh, Yoorae;Kim, Sang-Hyo;Choi, Sung-Uk;Park, Joonhong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2016
  • For safe water supply, residual chlorine has to be maintained in tap-water above a certain level from drinking water treatment plants to the final tap-water end-point. However, according to the current literature, approximately 30-60% of residual chlorine is being lost during the whole water supply pathways. The losses of residual chlorine may have been attributed to the current tendency for water supply managers to reduce chlorine dosage in drinking water treatment plants, aqueous phase decomposition of residual chlorine in supply pipes, accelerated chlorine decomposition at a high temperature during summer, leakage or losses of residual chlorine from old water supply pipes, and disappearances of residual chlorine in water storage tanks. Because of these, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that residual chlorine concentrations become lower than a regulatory level. In addition, it is concerned that the regulatory satisfaction of residual chlorine in water storage tanks can not always be guaranteed by using the current design method in which only storage capacity and/or hydraulic retention time are simply used as design factors, without considering other physico-chemical processes involved in chlorine disappearances in water storage tank. To circumvent the limitations of the current design method, mathematical models for aqueous chlorine decomposition, sorption of chlorine into wall surface, and mass-transfer into air-phase via evaporation were selected from literature, and residual chlorine reduction behavior in water storage tanks was numerically simulated. The model simulation revealed that the major factors influencing residual chlorine disappearances in water storage tanks are the water quality (organic pollutant concentration) of tap-water entering into a storage tank, the hydraulic dispersion developed by inflow of tap-water into a water storage tank, and sorption capacity onto the wall of a water storage tank. The findings from his work provide useful information in developing novel design and technology for minimizing residual chlorine disappearances in water storage tanks.

THE EFFECT OF LIGATION METHOD ON THE FRICTIONAL FORGE BETWEEN ORTHODONTIC BRACKET AND ARCHWIRE (결찰양식이 교정용 브라켓과 교정선 사이의 마찰력에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Hyun-Jeong;Kwon, Oh-Won;Kim, Kyo-Han
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.28 no.5 s.70
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    • pp.813-823
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    • 1998
  • The frictional force has been considered as an harmful factor in an active unit where tooth movement occurs, but as an advantageous factor in anchor unit that resist tooth movement. That is, efficient tooth movement is planned by using ligation methods that have low levels of bracket-wire frictional force and the anchorage control can be achieved by using ligation methods that have high levels of bracket-wire frictional force that result in binding of the bracket accompanied by little or no tooth movement. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the frictional force generated between bracket and wire in accordance with the methods of ligation, the material of ligation and the passage of time under artificial saliva. Tested were 0.017x0.022 inch stainless steel wires in standard edgewise twin brackets for upper central incisors in a 0.018-inch slot. The wires were ligated into the brackets with elastomeric modules and stainless steel ligatures. Whole tie, half tie, twisting tie and double overlay tie were done with elastomeric modules. With 0.009-inch stainless steel ligature whole tie and half tie were done by needle holder and whole tie by ligature tying plier. With 0.012-inch stainless steel ligature whole ties were done by needle holder. Whole tie groups of elastomeric module were kept in artificial saliva bath at $37^{\circ}C$ for 28 days. The frictional force was recorded by means of an Instron universial testing instrument (4202 INSTRON, Instron Co., U.S.A.) at initial, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days. The results for ligated samples in a simulated oral environment revealed the fellowing : ${\cdot}$In elastomeric module whole tie, 28 days group was significantly greater mean static frictional force than any other group but there were no significant differences among any other group (p>0.05). ${\cdot}$Elastomeric module twisting ties were significantly greater mean static frictional forces than any other ligation method but there were no significant differences between twisting tie and double overlay tie (p>0.05). Twisting tie, double overlay tie, whole tie, half tie showed differences in decreasing order. ${\cdot}$Stainless steel half tie produced lower mean static frictional force than whole tie, ligation by ligature tying plier produced greater mean static frictional force than by needle holder and ligation with 0.012-inch stainless steel ligature produced greater mean static frictional force than with 0.009-inch stainless steel ligature (p<0.05). ${\cdot}$There were no significant differences between the mean static frictional forces of elastomeric whole tie and stainless steel whole tie (p>0.05).

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Comparison of Algorithms for Generating Parametric Image of Cerebral Blood Flow Using ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET Positron Emission Tomography (${H_2}^{15}O$ PET을 이용한 뇌혈류 파라메트릭 영상 구성을 위한 알고리즘 비교)

  • Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Park, Kwang-Suk;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.288-300
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To obtain regional blood flow and tissue-blood partition coefficient with time-activity curves from ${H_2}^{15}O$ PET, fitting of some parameters in the Kety model is conventionally accomplished by nonlinear least squares (NLS) analysis. However, NLS requires considerable compuation time then is impractical for pixel-by-pixel analysis to generate parametric images of these parameters. In this study, we investigated several fast parameter estimation methods for the parametric image generation and compared their statistical reliability and computational efficiency. Materials and Methods: These methods included linear least squres (LLS), linear weighted least squares (LWLS), linear generalized least squares (GLS), linear generalized weighted least squares (GWLS), weighted Integration (WI), and model-based clustering method (CAKS). ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET with Poisson noise component was simulated using numerical Zubal brain phantom. Error and bias in the estimation of rCBF and partition coefficient, and computation time in various noise environments was estimated and compared. In audition, parametric images from ${H_2}^{15}O$ dynamic brain PET data peformed on 16 healthy volunteers under various physiological conditions was compared to examine the utility of these methods for real human data. Results: These fast algorithms produced parametric images with similar image qualify and statistical reliability. When CAKS and LLS methods were used combinedly, computation time was significantly reduced and less than 30 seconds for $128{\times}128{\times}46$ images on Pentium III processor. Conclusion: Parametric images of rCBF and partition coefficient with good statistical properties can be generated with short computation time which is acceptable in clinical situation.

Economic analysis of Frequency Regulation Battery Energy Storage System for Czech combined heat & power plant (체코 열병합발전소 주파수조정용 배터리에너지저장장치 경제성 분석)

  • KIM, YuTack;Cha, DongMin;Jung, SooAn;Son, SangHak
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.68-78
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    • 2020
  • According to the new climate change agreement, technology development to reduce greenhouse gases is actively conducted worldwide, and research on energy efficiency improvement in the field of power generation and transmission and distribution is underway [1,2]. Economic analysis of the operation method of storing and supplying surplus electricity using energy storage devices, and using energy storage devices as a frequency adjustment reserve power in regional cogeneration plants has been reported as the most profitable operation method [3-7]. Therefore, this study conducted an economic analysis for the installation of energy storage devices in the combined heat and power plant in the Czech Republic. The most important factor in evaluating the economics of battery energy storage devices is the lifespan, and the warranty life is generally 10 to 15 years, based on charging and discharging once a day. For the simulation, the ratio of battery and PCS was designed as 1: 1 and 1: 2. In general, the primary frequency control is designed as 1: 4, but considering the characteristics of the cogeneration plant, it is set at a ratio of up to 1: 2, and the capacity is simulated at 1MW to 10MW and 2MWh to 20MWh according to each ratio. Therefore, life was evaluated based on the number of cycles per year. In the case of installing a battery energy storage system in a combined heat and power plant in the Czech Republic, the payback period of 3MW / 3MWh is more favorable than 5MW / 5MWh, considering the local infrastructure and power market. It is estimated to be about 3 years or 5 years from the simple payback period considering the estimated purchase price without subsidies. If you lower the purchase price by 50%, the purchase cost is an important part of the cost for the entire lifetime, so the payback period is about half as short. It can be, but it is impossible to secure profitability through the economy at the scale of 3MWh and 5MWh. If the price of the electricity market falls by 50%, the payback period will be three years longer in P1 mode and two years longer in P2 and P3 modes.

Study on Production Performance of Shale Gas Reservoir using Production Data Analysis (생산자료 분석기법을 이용한 셰일가스정 생산거동 연구)

  • Lee, Sun-Min;Jung, Ji-Hun;Sin, Chang-Hoon;Kwon, Sun-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents production data analysis for two production wells located in the shale gas field, Canada, with the proper analysis method according to each production performance characteristics. In the case A production well, the analysis was performed by applying both time and superposition time because the production history has high variation. Firstly, the flow regimes were classified with a log-log plot, and as a result, only the transient flow was appeared. Then the area of simulated reservoir volume (SRV) analyzed based on flowing material balance plot was calculated to 180 acres of time, and 240 acres of superposition time. And the original gas in place (OGIP) also was estimated to 15, 20 Bscf, respectively. However, as the area of SRV was not analyzed with the boundary dominated flow data, it was regarded as the minimum one. Therefore, the production forecasting was conducted according to variation of b exponent and the area of SRV. As a result, estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) increased 1.2 and 1.4 times respectively depending on b exponent, which was 0.5 and 1. In addition, as the area of SRV increased from 240 to 360 acres, EUR increased 1.3 times. In the case B production well, the formation compressibility and permeability depending on the overburden were applied to the analysis of the overpressured reservoir. In comparison of the case that applied geomechanical factors and the case that did not, the area of SRV was increased 1.4 times, OGIP was increased 1.5 times respectively. As a result of analysis, the prediction of future productivity including OGIP and EUR may be quite different depending on the analysis method. Thus, it was found that proper analysis methods, such as pseudo-time, superposition time, geomechanical factors, need to be applied depending on the production data to gain accurate results.

Simulation Model of Two Dimensional Heat Transfer in Grain Bin (저장곡물(貯藏穀物) Bin내(內)의 삼차원(三次元) 열전달모형(熱傳達模型))

  • Han, Kwang Jin;Kim, Man Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.118-127
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    • 1985
  • The grain temperature is a crucial factor determining the deterioration rate of stored grain. Therefore, it is used to be predicted in order to evaluate the various stored methods rapidly and inexpensively. In this study, a mathematical model was developed to simulate the temperatures of grain stored in a cylinderical bin. It was formulated for the two dimensional heat transfer by the finite difference method. Then, it was verified statistically using the actual test deta and the predicted. The changes of grain temperature were analyed using the simulated data of one year for a safe stoarge and the following results were obtained: 1. Simulation model developed by the finite difference method was validated with the actual and the predicted grain temperatures and it's result showed that it could predict the grain temperature of storage bin reasonably well. 2. Grain temperature near the wall of storage bin were changed with $6-7^{\circ}C$ higher then average atmospheric temperature from June to September. Therefore, the parts of stored grain near the wall is supposed to be deteriorated fast. 3. When the dimension of bin diameter is about the same as the bed height, the changes of grain temperature of radial direction was higher than the verticals. 4. The predicted temperature showed that the grain temperature of which were from the end of April to mid October were higher than the safe storage limit at Yusung, Korea.

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A Biomechanical Study on a New Surgical Procedure for the Treatment of Intertrochanteric Fractures in relation to Osteoporosis of Varying Degrees (대퇴골 전자간 골절의 새로운 수술기법에 관한 생체역학적 분석)

  • 김봉주;이성재;권순용;탁계래;이권용
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.401-410
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    • 2003
  • This study investigates the biomechanical efficacies of various cement augmentation techniques with or without pressurization for varying degrees of osteoporotic femur. For this study, a biomechanical analysis using a finite element method (FEM) was undertaken to evaluate surgical procedures, Simulated models include the non-cemented(i.e., hip screw only, Type I), the cement-augmented(Type II), and the cemented augmented with pressurization(Type III) models. To simulate the fracture plane and other interfacial regions, 3-D contact elements were used with appropriate friction coefficients. Material properties of the cancellous bone were varied to accommodate varying degrees of osteoporosis(Singh indices, II∼V). For each model. the following items were analyzed to investigate the effect surgical procedures in relation to osteoporosis of varying degrees : (a) von Mises stress distribution within the femoral head in terms of volumetric percentages. (b) Peak von Mises stress(PVMS) within the femoral head and the surgical constructs. (c) Maximum von Mises strain(MVMS) within the femoral head, (d) micromotions at the fracture plane and at the interfacial region between surgical construct and surrounding bone. Type III showed the lowest PVMS and MVMS at the cancellous bone near the bone-construct interface regardless of bone densities. an indication of its least likelihood of construct loosening due to failure of the host bone. Particularly, its efficacy was more prominent when the bone density level was low. Micromotions at the interfacial surgical construct was lowest in Type III. followed by Type I and Type II. They were about 15-20% of other types. which suggested that pressurization was most effective in limiting the interfacial motion. Our results demonstrated the cement augmentation with hip screw could be more effective when used with pressurization technique for the treatment of intertrochanteric fractures. For patients with low bone density. its effectiveness can be more pronounced in limiting construct loosening and promoting bone union.