• 제목/요약/키워드: Meteorological Modeling

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Electrical fire prediction model study using machine learning (기계학습을 통한 전기화재 예측모델 연구)

  • Ko, Kyeong-Seok;Hwang, Dong-Hyun;Park, Sang-June;Moon, Ga-Gyeong
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.703-710
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    • 2018
  • Although various efforts have been made every year to reduce electric fire accidents such as accident analysis and inspection for electric fire accidents, there is no effective countermeasure due to lack of effective decision support system and existing cumulative data utilization method. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm for predicting electric fire based on data such as electric safety inspection data, electric fire accident information, building information, and weather information. Through the pre-processing of collected data for each institution such as Korea Electrical Safety Corporation, Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, Fire Defense Headquarters, convergence, analysis, modeling, and verification process, we derive the factors influencing electric fire and develop prediction models. The results showed insulation resistance value, humidity, wind speed, building deterioration(aging), floor space ratio, building coverage ratio and building use. The accuracy of prediction model using random forest algorithm was 74.7%.

Prediction of pollution loads in the Geum River upstream using the recurrent neural network algorithm

  • Lim, Heesung;An, Hyunuk;Kim, Haedo;Lee, Jeaju
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.67-78
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to predict the water quality using the RNN (recurrent neutral network) and LSTM (long short-term memory). These are advanced forms of machine learning algorithms that are better suited for time series learning compared to artificial neural networks; however, they have not been investigated before for water quality prediction. Three water quality indexes, the BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), COD (chemical oxygen demand), and SS (suspended solids) are predicted by the RNN and LSTM. TensorFlow, an open source library developed by Google, was used to implement the machine learning algorithm. The Okcheon observation point in the Geum River basin in the Republic of Korea was selected as the target point for the prediction of the water quality. Ten years of daily observed meteorological (daily temperature and daily wind speed) and hydrological (water level and flow discharge) data were used as the inputs, and irregularly observed water quality (BOD, COD, and SS) data were used as the learning materials. The irregularly observed water quality data were converted into daily data with the linear interpolation method. The water quality after one day was predicted by the machine learning algorithm, and it was found that a water quality prediction is possible with high accuracy compared to existing physical modeling results in the prediction of the BOD, COD, and SS, which are very non-linear. The sequence length and iteration were changed to compare the performances of the algorithms.

A Review of Clouds and Aerosols (구름과 에어로졸 고찰)

  • Yum, Seong Soo;Kim, Byung Gon;Kim, Sang Woo;Chang, Lim Seok;Kim, Seong Bum
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.253-267
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    • 2011
  • This study summarizes some important results from the studies on clouds and aerosols, and their effects on climate in the northeast Asia that were made mainly by Korean scientists and some other scientists from around the world. Clouds and aerosols are recognized as one of the most important factors that contributes to uncertainties in climate predictions and therefore become the subject of active research in the western developed countries in recent years. However, the researches on clouds and aerosols are very weakly done in Korea except ground based measurements of aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties. These measurements indicate that aerosol loadings in the northeast Asia are generally much higher than other parts of the world. On the other hand, researches on clouds are few in Korea. Satellite and ground remote sensing, numerical modeling and aircraft in-situ measurements of clouds are highly needed for better assessment of the role of clouds on climate in the northeast Asia.

Comparison of reference evapotranspiration estimation methods with limited data in South Korea

  • Jeon, Min-Gi;Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Hwang, Seonah;Ok, Junghun;Cho, Heerae;Han, Kyung-Hwa;Jung, Kang-Ho;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Hong, Suk-Young
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.137-149
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    • 2019
  • Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (RET) is important to quantify crop evapotranspiration for sustainable water resource management in hydrological, agricultural, and environmental fields. It is estimated by different methods from direct measurements with lysimeters, or by many empirical equations suggested by numerous modeling using local climatic variables. The potential to use some such equations depends on the availability of the necessary meteorological parameters for calculating the RET in specific climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to determine the proper RET equations using limited climatic data and to analyze the temporal and spatial trends of the RET in South Korea. We evaluated the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation (FAO-56 PM) by comparing several simple RET equations and observed small fan evaporation. In this study, the modified Penman equation, Hargreaves equation, and FAO Penman-Monteith equation with missing solar radiation (PM-Rs) data were tested to estimate the RET. Nine weather stations were considered with limited climatic data across South Korea from 1973 - 2017, and the RET equations were calculated for each weather station as well as the analysis of the mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The FAO-56 PM recommended by the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) showed good performance even though missing solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed data and could still be adapted to the limited data conditions. As a result, the RET was increased, and the evapotranspiration rate was increased more in coastal areas than inland.

Production of Farm-level Agro-information for Adaptation to Climate Change (기후변화 대응을 위한 농장수준 농업정보 생산)

  • Moon, Kyung Hwan;Seo, Hyeong Ho;Shin, Min Ji;Song, Eung Young;Oh, Soonja
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.158-166
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    • 2019
  • Implementing proper land management techniques, such as selecting the best crops and applying the best cultivation techniques at the farm level, is an effective way for farmers to adapt to climate change. Also it will be helpful if the farmer can get the information of agro-weather and the growth status of cultivating crops in real time and the simulated results of applying optional technologies. To test this, a system (web site) was developed to produce agro-weather data and crop growth information of farms by combining agricultural climate maps and crop growth modeling techniques to highland area for summer-season Chinese cabbage production. The system has been shown to be a viable tool for producing farm-level information and providing it directly to farmers. Further improvements will be required in the speed of information access, the microclimate models for some meteorological factors, and the crop growth models to test different options.

A Study on the 3-month Prior Prediction of Chl-a Concentraion in the Daechong Lake using Hydrometeorological Forecasting Data (수문기상예측자료를 활용한 대청호 Chl-a 3개월 선행예측연구)

  • Kwak, Jaewon
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.144-153
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    • 2021
  • In recently, the green algae bloom is one of the most severe challenges. The seven days prior prediction is in operation to issues the water quality warning, but it also needs a longer time of prediction to take preemptive measures. The objective of the study is to establish a method to conduct a 3-month prior prediction of Chl-a concentration in the Daechong Lake and tested its applicability as a supplementary of current water quality warning. The historical record of water quality in the Daechong Lake and seasonal forecasting of ECMWF were obtained, and its time-series characteristics were analyzed. The Chl-a forecasting model was established using a correlation between Chl-a concentration and meteorological factor and NARX model, and its efficiency was compared.

Contributions of Emissions and Atmospheric Physical and Chemical Processes to High PM2.5 Concentrations on Jeju Island During Spring 2018 (2018년 봄철 제주지역 고농도 PM2.5에 대한 배출량 및 물리·화학적 공정 기여도 분석)

  • Baek, Joo-Yeol;Song, Sang-Keun;Han, Seung-Beom;Cho, Seong-Bin
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.637-652
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the contributions of emissions (foreign and domestic) and atmospheric physical and chemical processes to PM2.5 concentrations were evaluated during a high PM2.5 episode (March 24-26, 2018) observed on the Jeju Island in the spring of 2018. These analyses were performed using the community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system using the brute-force method and integrated process rate (IPR) analysis, respectively. The contributions of domestic emissions from South Korea (41-45%) to PM2.5 on the Jeju Island were lower than those (81-89%) of long-range transport (LRT) from China. The substantial contribution of LRT was also confirmed in conjunction with the air mass trajectory analysis, indicating that the frequency of airflow from China (58-62% of all trajectories) was higher than from other regions (28-32%) (e.g., South Korea). These results imply that compared to domestic emissions, emissions from China have a stronger impact than domestic emissions on the high PM2.5 concentrations in the study area. From the IPR analysis, horizontal transport contributed substantially to PM2.5 concentrations were dominant in most of the areas of the Jeju Island during the high PM2.5 episode, while the aerosol process and vertical transport in the southern areas largely contributed to higher PM2.5 concentrations.

Geographic Factors and the Modeling of Rice Culture under Normal Season in Korea (지리적환경조건에 따른 수도 보통기 재배시기 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, M.S.;Chung, G.S.;Cho, C.Y.;Park, L.K.;Bae, S.H.;Ham, Y.S.;Lee, E.U.;Choi, H.O.
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.118-127
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    • 1984
  • In order to find an appropriate model for rice crop-season, the possibility to utilize the geographical conditions instead of meteorological factors was examined on the data from the Local Adaptability Test(LAT) conducted over the country from 1962 to 1980. The mutiple regression model, $Y={\Upsilon}={\ss}{\sum}_{i=1}^n{\beta}^1X^iwas applied on seeding, transplanting, heading and marginal heading date, and multiple regression coefficients(\beta) and multiple correlation coefficients (R) were tested. Two varietal groups, japonica(1962-l971) and indica/japonica(l972-1980) were separately tested. The application of these established models, growth duration in nursery and paddy field, cultural season, and the relation between heading date and yield are reviewed.

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Research on Selecting Influential Climatic Factors and Optimal Timing Exploration for a Rice Production Forecast Model Using Weather Data

  • Jin-Kyeong Seo;Da-Jeong Choi;Juryon Paik
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2023
  • Various studies to enhance the accuracy of rice production forecasting are focused on improving the accuracy of the models. In contrast, there is a relative lack of research regarding the data itself, which the prediction models are applied to. When applying the same dependent variable and prediction model to two different sets of rice production data composed of distinct features, discrepancies in results can occur. It is challenging to determine which dataset yields superior results under such circumstances. To address this issue, by identifying potential influential features within the data before applying the prediction model and centering the modeling around these, it is possible to achieve stable prediction results regardless of the composition of the data. In this study, we propose a method to adjust the composition of the data's features in order to select optimal base variables, aiding in achieving stable and consistent predictions for rice production. This method makes use of the Korea Meteorological Administration's ASOS data. The findings of this study are expected to make a substantial contribution towards enhancing the utility of performance evaluations in future research endeavors.

Backward estimation of precipitation from high spatial resolution SAR Sentinel-1 soil moisture: a case study for central South Korea

  • Nguyen, Hoang Hai;Han, Byungjoo;Oh, Yeontaek;Jung, Woosung;Shin, Daeyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.329-329
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    • 2022
  • Accurate characterization of terrestrial precipitation variation from high spatial resolution satellite sensors is beneficial for urban hydrology and microscale agriculture modeling, as well as natural disasters (e.g., urban flooding) early warning. However, the widely-used top-down approach for precipitation retrieval from microwave satellites is limited in several hydrological and agricultural applications due to their coarse spatial resolution. In this research, we aim to apply a novel bottom-up method, the parameterized SM2RAIN, where precipitation can be estimated from soil moisture signals based on an inversion of water balance model, to generate high spatial resolution terrestrial precipitation estimates at 0.01º grid (roughly 1-km) from the C-band SAR Sentinel-1. This product was then tested against a common reanalysis-based precipitation data and a domestic rain gauge network from the Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) over central South Korea, since a clear difference between climatic types (coasts and mainlands) and land covers (croplands and mixed forests) was reported in this area. The results showed that seasonal precipitation variability strongly affected the SM2RAIN performances, and the product derived from separated parameters (rainy and non-rainy seasons) outperformed that estimated considering the entire year. In addition, the product retrieved over the mainland mixed forest region showed slightly superior performance compared to that over the coastal cropland region, suggesting that the 6-day time resolution of S1 data is suitable for capturing the stable precipitation pattern in mainland mixed forests rather than the highly variable precipitation pattern in coastal croplands. Future studies suggest comparing this product to the traditional top-down products, as well as evaluating their integration for enhancing high spatial resolution precipitation over entire South Korea.

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