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http://dx.doi.org/10.17663/JWR.2021.23.2.144

A Study on the 3-month Prior Prediction of Chl-a Concentraion in the Daechong Lake using Hydrometeorological Forecasting Data  

Kwak, Jaewon (Han River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Environment)
Publication Information
Journal of Wetlands Research / v.23, no.2, 2021 , pp. 144-153 More about this Journal
Abstract
In recently, the green algae bloom is one of the most severe challenges. The seven days prior prediction is in operation to issues the water quality warning, but it also needs a longer time of prediction to take preemptive measures. The objective of the study is to establish a method to conduct a 3-month prior prediction of Chl-a concentration in the Daechong Lake and tested its applicability as a supplementary of current water quality warning. The historical record of water quality in the Daechong Lake and seasonal forecasting of ECMWF were obtained, and its time-series characteristics were analyzed. The Chl-a forecasting model was established using a correlation between Chl-a concentration and meteorological factor and NARX model, and its efficiency was compared.
Keywords
Seasonal forecasting; Chl-a modeling; NARX model; Wavelet analysis;
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