• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.103-118
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• 2018

Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.29-41
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• 2020

Wild pollinators provide important pollination services for crops. However, their geographical ranges and impact on pollination services have not been fully explored within the scope of Korean agricultural land. This study aims to identify spatial supply-demand mismatches across orchard fields in the context of assessing pollination service risk. We first used National Ecosystem Survey data and a species distribution model (MaxEnt) to develop the geographic range of each of 32 wild pollinators belonging to three families (Diptera, Hymenoptera, and Lepidoptera). We then summed the modeled presence probability of each species to obtain a measure of spatially explicit pollinator richness. This modeled richness, defined as pollination supply, was compared with the summed area of orchard fields at the municipal boundary level to identify areas with supply-demand mismatches. The study found that Lepidoptera showed the highest species richness (8.3±1.5), followed by Hymenoptera (4.3±0.8) and Diptera (3.5±0.8) species. Median orchard area was 1.5 ㎢ (range of 0-176.7 ㎢) among 250 municipal regions in South Korea. The municipal regions were divided into three categories (tertiles) of low, middle, and high pollination supply and demand according to, respectivley, average polliator richness and orhard area. Finally, we found that 55 municipal regions (accounting for 49% of national orchard land) potentially faced high risk of pollination deficits, 81 regions (48% of national orchard land) faced intermediate risk, and 63 regions faced low risk (3% of national orchard land). In conclusion, this study revealed significant mismatch between pollination supply and demand and developed risk assessment map will guide our future efforts on pollinator habitat conservation and monitoring to conserve crop pollination services.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• v.58 no.3
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• pp.229-236
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• 2020

Cutaneous leishmaniosis (CL) is the most common form of leishmaniasis.CL caused by L. major and L. tropica is endemic in 17 provinces of Iran. This study was carried out to elucidate situation of CL in Ardabil province and to predict distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi and Phlebotomus sergenti (Diptera: Psychodidae) as vectors of CL in the region. In this cross-sectional study, data on CL patients were collected from local health centers of Ardabil province, Iran during 2006-2018 to establish a geodatabase using ArcGIS10.3. A total of 20 CL cases were selected randomly and skin samples were collected and analyzed by PCR method. MaxEnt 3.3.3 model was used to determine ecologically suitable niches for the main vectors. A total, 309 CL human cases were reported and the highest incidence rate of disease was occurred in Bilasavar (37/100,000) and Germi (35/100,000). A total of 2,794 sand flies were collected during May to October 2018. The environmentally suitable habitats for P. papatasi and P. sergenti were predicted to be present in northern and central areas of Ardabil province. The most variable that contributed ratio in the modeling were Isothermality and slope factors. Ardabil province is possibly an endemic are for CL. The presence of P. papatasi and P. sergenti justifies local transmission while the vectors of CL are existing in the northern and central areas of the province.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.33-47
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• 2020

With population losses and stagnant or depressed economies, the local governments embrace shrinkage and accept having a significantly smaller population. Both the initial and ongoing causes of shrinkage hold dramatic effects on the city and its remaining residents. In this context, vacant land increases as an overabundance of unused infrastructure is demolished and municipalities become burdened with increasing maintenance costs of this land. The result is that vacant land often experiences minimal management relative to social norms and have chance to provide a setting for ecological processes with urban rightsizing strategy. Therefore, urban ecosystems undergo major shifts in structure and function. We need to better understand the possibilities of where and how much of houses and land will be abandoned to assist land planners and policymakers to mitigate conflict between optimal ecological and sociological outcomes. This article, therefore, aims to identify distributional characteristics of vacant houses and lands with case study of Mokpo. The study found and verified affecting factors of vacant houses and lands by type through the use of a Maxent model and spatial data that explained housing choice and preference theory. We can predict the vacancies with the spatial variables such as land price, the population ratio over 65, and the distance from security facility. Based on the analysis, the ways of managing housing and land vacancy for sustainable development and ecological restoration method are discussed.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.327-334
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• 2015

We investigated the current and potential spatial distributions and habitable areas of Biston robustum and Camellia japonica in South Korea in order to provide useful data for the conservation of C. japonica and minimize the damage caused by B. robustum. It was predicted that, by 2070, although B. robustum would be widely distributed throughout the Korean Peninsula, except for the western and eastern coastal areas, it would be narrowly distributed along the Sokcho-si and Goseong-gun coastlines in Gangwon Province. C. japonica is currently located along the southern coastline but its critical habitable area is predicted to gradually disappear by 2070. Assessment of the potential distribution probabilities of B. robustum and C. japonica revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.995 and 0.991, respectively, which indicate high precision and applicability of the model. Major factors influencing the potential distribution of B. robustum included precipitation of wettest quarter and annual precipitation (BIO16 and BIO12), whereas annual mean temperature and mean temperature of wettest quarter (BIO1 and BIO8) were important variables for explaining C. japonica distribution. Overlapping areas of B. robustum and C. japonica were $11,782km^2$, $5447km^2$, and $870km^2$ for the current, 2050-predicted, and 2070-predicted conditions, respectively, clearly showing a dramatic decrease in area. Although it is predicted that B. robustum would cause continuous damage to C. japonica in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, such impacts might diminish over time and become negligible in the future.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.352-363
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• 2019

Background: Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. Results: Based on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (e.g., Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gyeongsangnam, Degue, Busan, and Ulsan) is estimated to increase up to 292%, 390.75%, and 468.06% by 2030, 2050, and 2080, respectively, compared with the current richness. Conclusions: Our study revealed that the rates of introduction and dispersion of invasive plant species from the western and southern coasts are relatively high and are expanding across the ROK through different modes of dispersion. The negative impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem dynamics, and economy caused by invasive plant species will be high if preventive and eradication measures are not employed immediately. Thus, this study will be helpful to policymakers for the management of invasive plant species and the conservation of biodiversity.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.298-307
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• 2018

Background: Subalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios' representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: Altogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38-94.02% by 2050 and 21.42-96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38-97.9% by 2050 and 23.07-100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan). Conclusions: This result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.

• Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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• 2019.04a
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• pp.27-27
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• 2019

본 연구는 한국 특산식물이고, IUCN Red List의 EN(위기종) 등급에 속하는 개느삼(Echinosophora koreensis)을 대상으로 자생지 분포, 식생구조 등의 생태적 특성과 현지 내외 보전 방안을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 개느삼의 자생지 분포 조사 결과 강원도 양구군 13곳, 인제군 3곳, 춘천시 2곳, 홍천군 1곳 총 19곳에 분포하는 것을 확인하였다. 개느삼 자생지의 해발고도는 169-711m에 분포하는 것으로 나타났고, 평균 해발고도는 375m 인 것으로 조사되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 면적 조사 결과, $8,000-734,000m^2$인 것으로 분석되었고, 평균 $202,789m^2$으로 조사되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 입지환경 분석을 수행한 결과, 자생지 내 우점종은 교목층에서 소나무가 대부분 우점하였고, 아교목층에서는 신갈나무가 우점하는 것으로 분석되었다. 관목층은 생강나무가 우점하였고, 초본층은 모든 조사구에서 개느삼이 우점하는 것으로 분석되었다. 개느삼 자생지의 식생군집분석 결과, 신갈나무, 소나무, 굴참나무 우점 군집 3개 군집으로 분류되었다. 개느삼 자생지를 대상으로 관속식물상을 조사한 결과, 총 82과 204속 289종 4아종 43변종 5품종 341분류군으로 확인되었다. 개느삼의 출현지점을 이용하여 자생지 분포역 예측 model 중 하나인 MaxEnt 분석을 통하여 잠재 분포지 분석을 수행한 결과, AUC값은 0.9762로 분석되었다. 분포예측 자생지는 강원도 양구군, 인제군, 춘천시, 화천군 지역에 집중되어 분포하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Species Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.246-254
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• 2021

Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km², covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.503-514
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• 2020

Climate change leads to changes in phenological response and movement of plant habitats. Korea's evergreen broad-leaved forest has widened its distribution area compared for the past 20 years, and the range of its native habitats is moving northward. We analyzed climate indices such as the warmth index, the cold index, the lowest temperature in the coldest month, and the annual average temperature, which are closely related to vegetation distribution, to predict the change in the native habitat of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees. We also analyzed the change and spatial distribution to identify the habitat climate characteristics of 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees distributed in the warm temperate zone in Korea. Moreover, we predicted the natural habitat change in the 21st century according to the climate change scenario (RCP 4.5/8.5), applying the MaxEnt species distribution model. The monthly average climate index of the 8 species of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was 116.9±10.8℃ for the temperate index, the cold index 3.9±3.8℃, 1495.7±455.4mm for the annual precipitation, 11.7±3.5 for the humidity index, 14.4±1.1℃ for the annual average temperature, and 1.0±2.1℃ for the lowest temperature of winter. Based on the climate change scenario RCP 4.5, the distribution of the Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees was analyzed to expand to islands of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, adjacent areas of the west and south coasts, and Goseong, Gangwon-do on the east coast. In the case of the distribution based on the climate change scenario RCP 8.5, it was analyzed that the distribution would expand to all of Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, and most regions except for some parts of Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and the capital region. For the conservation of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees to prepare for climate change, it is necessary to establish standards for conservation plans such as in-situ and ex-situ conservation and analyze various physical and chemical characteristics of native habitats. Moreover, it is necessary to preemptively detect changes such as distribution, migration, and decline of Lauraceae evergreen broad-leaved trees following climate change based on phenological response data based on climate indicators and establish conservation management plans.