• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov process model

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A Study of the Prediction of Incidence of Crime using Markov process (마코프 프로세스를 적용한 범죄 발생 예측 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Young-Suk;Jung, Jin-Young
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2012
  • Modern society is experiencing a variety of crimes, and to prevent crime is being studied. Existing studies related to the crime of crimes that occur on spatial analysis and geographic information, or to analyze the type of criminal offense of studies have been conducted, However the existing studies of the geographical and psychological crime that occurs throughout the study area and by analyzing the motives for the crime prevention research is the most. In this paper, we introduce Markov processor model for predicting the crime is present. Of several crimes, murder, government official crimes, the incidence of violent crime has occurred over time by using the predicted incidence of crime. Presented in this paper, predictive modeling is used in a crime occurred in the average duration of the overall average number of crimes that occurred in the one-year average, which recently labeled as the average prediction was compared to if you can increase the likelihood, recent average to apply to increase the probability of the prediction that crime have been investigated.

Performance Analysis of a Congestion cControl Mechanism Based on Active-WRED Under Multi-classes Traffic (멀티클래스 서비스 환경에서 Active-WRED 기반의 혼잡 제어 메커니즘 및 성능 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jong;Kim, Jong-Chan;Choi, Seong-Gon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we propose active queue management mechanism (Active-WRED) to guarantee quality of the high priority service class in multi-class traffic service environment. In congestion situation, this mechanism increases drop probability of low priority traffic and reduces the drop probability of the high priority traffic, therefore it can improve the quality of the high priority service. In order to analyze the performance of our mechanism we introduce the stochastic analysis of a discrete-time queueing systems for the performance evaluation of the Active Queue Management (AQM) based congestion control mechanism called Weighted Random Early Detection (WRED) using a two-state Markov-Modulated Bernoulli arrival process (MMBP-2) as the traffic source. A two-dimensional discrete-time Harkov chain is introduced to model the Active-WRED mechanism for two traffic classes (Guaranteed Service and Best Effort Service) where each dimension corresponds to a traffic class with its own parameters.

Hierarchical Power Management Architecture and Optimal Local Control Policy for Energy Efficient Networks

  • Wei, Yifei;Wang, Xiaojun;Fialho, Leonardo;Bruschi, Roberto;Ormond, Olga;Collier, Martin
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.540-550
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    • 2016
  • Since energy efficiency has become a significant concern for network infrastructure, next-generation network devices are expected to have embedded advanced power management capabilities. However, how to effectively exploit the green capabilities is still a big challenge, especially given the high heterogeneity of devices and their internal architectures. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical power management architecture (HPMA) which represents physical components whose power can be monitored and controlled at various levels of a device as entities. We use energy aware state (EAS) as the power management setting mode of each device entity. The power policy controller is capable of getting information on how many EASes of the entity are manageable inside a device, and setting a certain EAS configuration for the entity. We propose the optimal local control policy which aims to minimize the router power consumption while meeting the performance constraints. A first-order Markov chain is used to model the statistical features of the network traffic load. The dynamic EAS configuration problem is formulated as a Markov decision process and solved using a dynamic programming algorithm. In addition, we demonstrate a reference implementation of the HPMA and EAS concept in a NetFPGA frequency scaled router which has the ability of toggling among five operating frequency options and/or turning off unused Ethernet ports.

Assessment of the Contribution of Weather, Vegetation, Land Use Change for Agricultural Reservoir and Stream Watershed using the SLURP model (I) - Preparation of Input Data for the Model - (SLURP 모형을 이용한 기후, 식생, 토지이용변화가 농업용 저수지유역과 하천유역에 미치는 기여도 평가(I) - 모형의 입력자료 구축 -)

  • Park, Geun-Ae;Lee, Yong-Jun;Shin, Hyung-Jin;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2B
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2010
  • The effect of potential future climate change on the inflow of agricultural reservoir and its impact to downstream streamflow by reservoir operation for paddy irrigation water was assessed using the SLURP (semi-distributed land use-based runoff process), a physically based hydrological model. The fundamental input data (elevation, meteorological data, land use, soil, vegetation) was collected to calibrate and validate of the SLURP model for a 366.5 $km^2$ watershed including two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang and Gosam) located in Anseongcheon watershed. Then, the CCCma CGCM2 data by SRES (special report on emissions scenarios) A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) was used to assess the future potential climate change. The future weather data for the year, m ms, m5ms and 2amms was downscaled by Change Factor method through bias-correction using 3m years (1977-2006) weather data of 3 meteorological stations of the watershed. In addition, the future land uses were predicted by modified CA (cellular automata)-Markov technique using the time series land use data fromFactosat images. Also the future vegetation cover information was predicted and considered by the linear regression between monthly NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) from NOAA AVHRR images and monthly mean temperature using eight years (1998-2006) data.

Performance Modelling of Adaptive VANET with Enhanced Priority Scheme

  • Lim, Joanne Mun-Yee;Chang, YoongChoon;Alias, MohamadYusoff;Loo, Jonathan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.1337-1358
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we present an analytical and simulated study on the performance of adaptive vehicular ad hoc networks (VANET) priority based on Transmission Distance Reliability Range (TDRR) and data type. VANET topology changes rapidly due to its inherent nature of high mobility nodes and unpredictable environments. Therefore, nodes in VANET must be able to adapt to the ever changing environment and optimize parameters to enhance performance. However, there is a lack of adaptability in the current VANET scheme. Existing VANET IEEE802.11p's Enhanced Distributed Channel Access; EDCA assigns priority solely based on data type. In this paper, we propose a new priority scheme which utilizes Markov model to perform TDRR prediction and assign priorities based on the proposed Markov TDRR Prediction with Enhanced Priority VANET Scheme (MarPVS). Subsequently, we performed an analytical study on MarPVS performance modeling. In particular, considering five different priority levels defined in MarPVS, we derived the probability of successful transmission, the number of low priority messages in back off process and concurrent low priority transmission. Finally, the results are used to derive the average transmission delay for data types defined in MarPVS. Numerical results are provided along with simulation results which confirm the accuracy of the proposed analysis. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed MarPVS results in lower transmission latency and higher packet success rate in comparison with the default IEEE802.11p scheme and greedy scheduler scheme.

A New Distance Measure for a Variable-Sized Acoustic Model Based on MDL Technique

  • Cho, Hoon-Young;Kim, Sang-Hun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.795-800
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    • 2010
  • Embedding a large vocabulary speech recognition system in mobile devices requires a reduced acoustic model obtained by eliminating redundant model parameters. In conventional optimization methods based on the minimum description length (MDL) criterion, a binary Gaussian tree is built at each state of a hidden Markov model by iteratively finding and merging similar mixture components. An optimal subset of the tree nodes is then selected to generate a downsized acoustic model. To obtain a better binary Gaussian tree by improving the process of finding the most similar Gaussian components, this paper proposes a new distance measure that exploits the difference in likelihood values for cases before and after two components are combined. The mixture weight of Gaussian components is also introduced in the component merging step. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms MDL-based optimization using either a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence or weighted KL divergence measure. The proposed method could also reduce the acoustic model size by 50% with less than a 1.5% increase in error rate compared to a baseline system.

Performance Analysis of a Loss Retrial BMAP/PH/N System

  • Kim Che-Soong;Oh Young-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 2004
  • This paper investigates the mathematical model of multi-server retrial queueing system with the Batch Markovian Arrival Process (BMAP), the Phase type (PH) service distribution and the finite buffer. The sufficient condition for the steady state distribution existence and the algorithm for calculating this distribution are presented. Finally, a formula to solve loss probability in the case of complete admission discipline is derived.

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PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A MULTIPLEXER WITH THE THRESHOLD BASED OVERLOAD CONTROL IN ATM NETWORKS

  • Park, Chul-Geun
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.643-658
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    • 1998
  • In this paper we analyze the performance of a statistical ATM multiplexer with bursty input traffic and two thresholds in the buffer by using queueing model. Two priority levels are considered for source traffic which is modeled by Markov Modulated Poisson Process to represent the bursty characteristics. Service time distributions of two priority sources are assumed to be same and deterministic for ATM environment. The partial buffer sharing scheme with one threshold may experience a sensitive state change around the threshold. But the proposed multiplexer with two thresholds avoids this hysterical phenominon to improve the system operation.

Design of a Statistical Model Based Voice Activity Detector (통계적 모델에 근거한 음성 검출기의 설계)

  • 손종서
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.08a
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    • pp.465-469
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    • 1998
  • 가변 전송율 음성 부호화기를 위한 음성 검출기를 통계적 모델을 적용하여 설계한다. 제안된 음성 검출기는 음성 파라미터를 decision-directed 방식으로 추정함으로써 LRT를 이용하여 동작 특성이 우수한 판정 규칙을 유도한다. 또한 음성 발생 사건들을 1차의 Markov process 로 모델링 함으로써 과거의 관찰들을 현재 프레임의 음성 검출 과정에서 고려할 수 있는 행오버 알고리즘을 개발한다. 개발된 음성 검출기는 고려된 실험환경에서 ITU-T 표준인 G.729 Annex B 음성 검출기보다 맹 우수한 성능을 나타내었다.

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A study on the control system with dual structure to enhance its reliability (제어 시스템의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 이중화 구조 연구)

  • 박세화;문봉채;김병국;변증남
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1990.10a
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    • pp.773-778
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    • 1990
  • In this paper, a reliable control system structured with dual CPU modules and dual I/O modules is implemented as a means of achieving a highly reliable fault tolerant control system. For this, faults in the system modules are first examined, and a fault detection technique consisting of self diagnostic, comparison process, and exception processing is applied. Also reliability analysis is conducted for the discrete time Markov model with dual structure. It is shown quantitatively that the reliability is improved in the control system with dual structure in comparison with a system with single module structure.

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