• Title/Summary/Keyword: Markov chain

Search Result 884, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Implementation of Markov Chain: Review and New Application (관리도에서 Markov연쇄의 적용: 복습 및 새로운 응용)

  • Park, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.657-676
    • /
    • 2011
  • Properties of statistical process control procedures may not be derived analytically in many cases; however, the application of a Markov chain can solve such problems. This article shows how to derive the properties of the process control procedures using the generated Markov chains when the control statistic satisfies the Markov property. Markov chain approaches that appear in the literature (such as the statistical design and economic design of the control chart as well as the variable sampling rate design) are reviewed along with the introduction of research results for application to a new control procedure and reset chart. The joint application of a Markov chain approach and analytical solutions (when available) can guarantee the correct derivation of the properties. A Markov chain approach is recommended over simulation studies due to its precise derivation of properties and short calculation times.

Implementation of Markov chain: Review and new application (관리도에서 Markov연쇄의 적용: 복습 및 새로운 응용)

  • Park, Changsoon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.34 no.4
    • /
    • pp.537-556
    • /
    • 2021
  • Properties of statistical process control procedures may not be derived analytically in many cases; however, the application of a Markov chain can solve such problems. This article shows how to derive the properties of the process control procedures using the generated Markov chains when the control statistic satisfies the Markov property. Markov chain approaches that appear in the literature (such as the statistical design and economic design of the control chart as well as the variable sampling rate design) are reviewed along with the introduction of research results for application to a new control procedure and reset chart. The joint application of a Markov chain approach and analytical solutions (when available) can guarantee the correct derivation of the properties. A Markov chain approach is recommended over simulation studies due to its precise derivation of properties and short calculation times.

A Probabilistic Analysis for Fatigue Cumulative Damage and Fatigue Life in CFRP Composites Containing a Circular Hole (원공을 가진 CFRP 복합재료의 피로누적손상 및 피로수명에 대한 확률적 해석)

  • 김정규;김도식
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
    • /
    • v.19 no.8
    • /
    • pp.1915-1926
    • /
    • 1995
  • The Fatigue characteristics of 8-harness satin woven CFRP composites with a circular hole are experimentally investigated under constant amplitude tension-tension loading. It is found in this study that the fatigue damage accumulation behavior is very random and history-independent, and the fatigue cumulative damage is linearly related with the mean number of cycles to a specified damage state. From these results, it is known that the fatigue characteristics of CFRP composites satisfy the basic assumptions of Markov chain theory and the parameter of Markov chain model can be determined only by mean and variance of fatigue lives. The predicted distribution of the fatigue cumulative damage using Markov chain model shows a good agreement with the test results. For the fatigue life distribution, Markov chain model makes similar accuracy to 2-parameter Weibull distribution function.

Improved MCMC Simulation for Low-Dimensional Multi-Modal Distributions

  • Ji, Hyunwoong;Lee, Jaewook;Kim, Namhyoung
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.49-53
    • /
    • 2013
  • A Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm samples a new point around the latest sample due to the Markov property, which prevents it from sampling from multi-modal distributions since the corresponding chain often fails to search entire support of the target distribution. In this paper, to overcome this problem, mode switching scheme is applied to the conventional MCMC algorithms. The algorithm separates the reducible Markov chain into several mutually exclusive classes and use mode switching scheme to increase mixing rate. Simulation results are given to illustrate the algorithm with promising results.

A study of guiding probability applied markov-chain (Markov 연쇄를 적용한 확률지도연구)

  • Lee Tae-Gyu
    • The Mathematical Education
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 1986
  • It is a common saying that markov-chain is a special case of probability course. That is to say, It means an unchangeable markov-chain process of the transition-probability of discontinuous time. There are two kinds of ways to show transition probability parade matrix theory. The first is the way by arrangement of a rightangled tetragon. The second part is a vertical measurement and direction sing by transition-circle. In this essay, I try to find out existence of procession for transition-probability applied markov-chain. And it is possible for me to know not only, what it is basic on a study of chain but also being applied to abnormal problems following a flow change and statistic facts expecting to use as a model of air expansion in physics.

  • PDF

A study on Classification of Insider threat using Markov Chain Model

  • Kim, Dong-Wook;Hong, Sung-Sam;Han, Myung-Mook
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1887-1898
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this paper, a method to classify insider threat activity is introduced. The internal threats help detecting anomalous activity in the procedure performed by the user in an organization. When an anomalous value deviating from the overall behavior is displayed, we consider it as an inside threat for classification as an inside intimidator. To solve the situation, Markov Chain Model is employed. The Markov Chain Model shows the next state value through an arbitrary variable affected by the previous event. Similarly, the current activity can also be predicted based on the previous activity for the insider threat activity. A method was studied where the change items for such state are defined by a transition probability, and classified as detection of anomaly of the inside threat through values for a probability variable. We use the properties of the Markov chains to list the behavior of the user over time and to classify which state they belong to. Sequential data sets were generated according to the influence of n occurrences of Markov attribute and classified by machine learning algorithm. In the experiment, only 15% of the Cert: insider threat dataset was applied, and the result was 97% accuracy except for NaiveBayes. As a result of our research, it was confirmed that the Markov Chain Model can classify insider threats and can be fully utilized for user behavior classification.

Music Composition Using Markov Chain and Hierarchical Clustering (마르코프 체인과 계층적 클러스터링 기법을 이용한 작곡 기법)

  • Kwon, Ji-Yong;Lee, In-Kwon
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 2008.02a
    • /
    • pp.744-748
    • /
    • 2008
  • In this paper, we propose a novel technique that generate a new song with given example songs. Our system use k-th order Markov chain of which each state represents notes in a measure. Because we have to consider very high-dimensional space if we use notes in a measure as a state of Markov chain directly, we exploit a hierarchical clustering technique for given example songs to use each cluster as a state. Each given examples can be represented as sequences of cluster ID, and we use them for training data of the Markov chain. The resulting Markov chain effectively gives new song similar to given examples.

  • PDF

A Prediction Method using Markov chain in DTN (DTN에서 Markov Chain을 이용한 노드의 이동 예측 기법)

  • Jeon, Il-Kyu;Shin, Gyu-young;Kim, Hyeng-jun;Oh, Young-jun;Lee, Kang-Whan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2015.10a
    • /
    • pp.111-112
    • /
    • 2015
  • 본 논문에서는 Delay Tolerant Networks(DTNs)에서 Markov chain으로 노드의 속성 정보 변화율을 분석하여 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 기존 DTN에서 예측기반 라우팅 기법은 노드가 미리 정해진 스케줄에 따라 이동한다. 이러한 네트워크에서는 스케줄을 예측할 수 없는 환경에서 노드의 신뢰성이 낮아진다. 본 논문에서는 일정 구간의 노드의 속성 정보의 시간에 따른 변화율을 Markov chain을 이용하여 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 알고리즘을 제안한다. 제안하는 알고리즘은 노드의 속성 정보 중 노드의 속도와 방향성을 근사한 후, 변화율을 분석하고 이로부터 Markov chain을 이용하여 확률전이 매트릭스를 생성하여 노드의 이동 경로를 예측하는 알고리즘이다. 주어진 모의실험 환경에서 노드의 이동 경로 예측을 통해 중계 노드를 선정하여 라우팅 함으로써 네트워크 오버헤드와 전송 지연 시간이 감소함을 보여주고 있다.

  • PDF

A Prediction Method using property information change in DTN (DTN에서 속성 정보 변화에 따른 노드의 이동 예측 기법)

  • Jeon, Il-Kyu;Lee, Kang-Whan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.425-426
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this paper, we proposed an algorithm based on movement prediction using Markov chain in delay tolerant networks(DTNs). The existing prediction algorithms require additional information such as a node's schedule and connectivity between nodes. However, network reliability is lowered when additional information is unknown. To solve this problem, we proposed an algorithm for predicting a movement path of the node by using Markov chain. The proposed algorithm maps speed and direction for a node into state, and predict movement path of the node using transition probability matrix generated by Markov chain. As the result, proposed algorithm show that the proposed algorithms has competitive delivery ratio but with less average latency.

  • PDF

Development of Daily Rainfall Simulation Model Using Piecewise Kernel-Pareto Continuous Distribution (불연속 Kernel-Pareto 분포를 이용한 일강수량 모의 기법 개발)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;So, Byung Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.31 no.3B
    • /
    • pp.277-284
    • /
    • 2011
  • The limitations of existing Markov chain model for reproducing extreme rainfalls are a known problem, and the problems have increased the uncertainties in establishing water resources plans. Especially, it is very difficult to secure reliability of water resources structures because the design rainfall through the existing Markov chain model are significantly underestimated. In this regard, aims of this study were to develop a new daily rainfall simulation model which is able to reproduce both mean and high order moments such as variance and skewness using a piecewise Kernel-Pareto distribution. The proposed methods were applied to summer and fall season rainfall at three stations in Han river watershed in Korea. The proposed Kernel-Pareto distribution based Markov chain model has been shown to perform well at reproducing most of statistics such as mean, standard deviation and skewness while the existing Gamma distribution based Markov chain model generally fails to reproduce high order moments. It was also confirmed that the proposed model can more effectively reproduce low order moments such as mean and median as well as underlying distribution of daily rainfall series by modeling extreme rainfall separately.