• Title/Summary/Keyword: M-estimation

Search Result 3,002, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

A Study on the Estimation model of the Amount of the Electric Energy Consumption according to the Apartment Heating Type (공동주택 난방방식별 전력에너지 소비량 추정모델 작성 연구)

  • Lee, Kang-Hee;Yang, Jae-Hyuk;Ryu, U-Sang
    • KIEAE Journal
    • /
    • v.10 no.1
    • /
    • pp.57-64
    • /
    • 2010
  • Electric energy is indispensible of the development of the industrial and living sector. Among the energy sectors, the building area shares 20% of the produced electric power in Korea. As we plan to supply the apartment, we need to forecast the required amount of the electric energy and supply the infrastructure to apartment for the lighting, cooling. Nonetheless, it is not easy to forecast the required amount of the electric energy, considering the management aspect, building physical aspect and social-geographic aspect. In this paper, it studied the estimation model of the electric energy, reflecting the affecting variables such as total area, number of household, geography and so on. The estimation model is proposed in 3-types which explained in central heating, individual heating and district heating, and each type have two estimation model, reflecting the affecting variable and corelation between variables to eliminate the muticolinearity. The unit of electric energy consumption per area and year is similar in three heating type and the results are as follows; the central heating is $34.446kWh/yr{\cdot}m^2$, individual type is $35.756446kWh/yr{\cdot}m^2$ and district heating is $34.285446kWh/yr{\cdot}m^2$.

Estimation of Daytime Sensible Heat Flux using Routine Meteorological Data (정규기상관측자료를 이용한 주간의 현열 플럭스 추정)

  • 이종범;김용국;박철용
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.109-114
    • /
    • 2000
  • The purpose of the present study is to develope the estimation scheme for sensible heat flux by semi-empirical approach using routine meteorological data such as solar radiation and air temperature. To compare observed sensible heat flux with estimated sensible heat flux, the sensible heat fluxes were measured by three dimensional sonic anemometer-thermometer. The field observation was performed during 1 year from December 1, 1995 to November 30, 1996 on a rice paddy field in Chunchon basin. The heat fluxes were measured at a heights of 5m and mean meteorological variables were obtained at two levels, 2.5m(or 1.5m) and 10m. Since condition of rice paddy field such as, wetness of the field, roughness length, vary widely, we devided annual data to 5 periods. Comparing with two sensible heat fluxes, the results showed that the correlation coefficients were more than 0.86. Thus, we can conclude that the estimation method of sensible heat fluxes using routine meteorological data is practical and reliable enough.

  • PDF

Individual Doses to the Public after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

  • Ishikawa, Tetsuo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.45 no.2
    • /
    • pp.53-68
    • /
    • 2020
  • Background: International organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported public exposure doses due to radionuclides released in the Fukushima nuclear accident a few years after the event. However, the reported doses were generally overestimated due to conservative assumptions such as a longer stay in deliberate areas designated for evacuation than the actual stay. After these reports had been published, more realistic dose values were reported by Japanese scientists. Materials and Methods: The present paper reviews those reports, including the most recently published articles; and summarizes estimated effective doses (external and internal) and issues related to their estimation. Results and Discussion: External dose estimation can be categorized as taking two approaches-estimation from ambient dose rate and peoples' behavior patterns-and measurements using personal dosimeters. The former approach was useful for estimating external doses in an early stage after the accident. The first 4-month doses were less than 2 mSv for most (94%) study subjects. Later on, individual doses came to be monitored by personal dosimeter measurements. On the basis of these measurements, the estimated median annual external dose was reported to be < 1 mSv in 2011 for 22 municipalities of Fukushima Prefecture. Internal dose estimation also can be categorized as taking two approaches: estimation from whole-body counting and estimation from monitoring of environmental samples such as radioactivity concentrations in food and drinking water. According to results by the former approach, committed effective dose due to 134Cs and 137Cs could be less than 0.1 mSv for most residents including those from evacuated areas. Conclusion: Realistic doses estimated by Japanese scientists indicated that the doses reported by WHO and UNSCEAR were generally overestimated. Average values for the first-year effective doses for residents in two affected areas (Namie Town and Iitate Village) were not likely to reach 10 mSv, the lower end of the doses estimated by WHO.

A study on channel reliability estimation of turbo decoder for underwater acoustic channel (수중 음향 채널에서 터보 복호기의 채널 신뢰도 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Hyun-Woo;Jung, Ji-Won;Kim, In-Soo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.41 no.4
    • /
    • pp.410-418
    • /
    • 2022
  • Channel reliability estimation for iterative codes such as turbo codes is very important factor in time varying underwater acoustic channel, an incorrect estimation of channel reliability induced performance degradation. Therefore, this paper presents an optimal channel reliability estimation method for turbo coded FSK signal with rate of 1/3. The estimated BER algorithm is a method that can estimate the reliability of received data by comparing received data and decoded data, and we determine optimal channel reliability by using the method. In order to analyze the performance, the experiment was conducted on a lake in Munkyeong city by moving in the range of 300 m to 500 m. At the result of applying presented method to failed decoding packets, we confirm all packets are decoded successfully.

The exponential generalized log-logistic model: Bagdonavičius-Nikulin test for validation and non-Bayesian estimation methods

  • Ibrahim, Mohamed;Aidi, Khaoula;Alid, Mir Masoom;Yousof, Haitham M.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-25
    • /
    • 2022
  • A modified Bagdonavičius-Nikulin chi-square goodness-of-fit is defined and studied. The lymphoma data is analyzed using the modified goodness-of-fit test statistic. Different non-Bayesian estimation methods under complete samples schemes are considered, discussed and compared such as the maximum likelihood least square estimation method, the Cramer-von Mises estimation method, the weighted least square estimation method, the left tail-Anderson Darling estimation method and the right tail Anderson Darling estimation method. Numerical simulation studies are performed for comparing these estimation methods. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated using three real data sets and compared with many other well-known generalizations.

Traffic Safety & Passenger Comforts of a Suspension Bridge Considering Seismic Loads (고속열차 주행 시 지진하중을 고려한 현수교의 주행안전성 및 승차감 분석)

  • Kim, Sung-Il;Kim, Dong-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.14 no.1
    • /
    • pp.57-65
    • /
    • 2011
  • The estimation of traffic safety and passenger comfort when the train is running on the bridge is a estimation unique to the railway bridge. The standards for such estimation are included in the Eurocode, the Shinkansen design criteria, and the design guideline of the Honam High-speed railway. The items are bridge responses including vertical displacement of bridge, vertical acceleration, and slab twist. In principle, a direct estimation based on the train responses has to take place. However, the estimation based on the bridge responses can be seen as an indirect estimation procedure for the convenience of the bridge designer. First, it is general practice that traffic safety can be verified as a derailment coefficient or wheel load decrement The general method of estimating passenger comfort is to calculate the acceleration within the train car-body. Various international indexes have been presented for this method. In the present study, traffic safety and passenger comforts are estimated directly by bridge/train interaction analysis. The acceleration and wheel load decrement are obtained for the estimation of traffic safety and passenger comforts of a suspension bridge which has main span length of 300m. Also, the consideration of seismic load with simultaneous action of moving train is done for bridge/train/earthquake interaction analysis.

A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF THE ESTIMATORS OF THE 2-PARAMETER GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION

  • Singh, V.P.;Ahmad, M.;Sherif, M.M.
    • Water Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.4 no.3
    • /
    • pp.155-173
    • /
    • 2003
  • Parameters and quantiles of the 2-parameter generalized Pareto distribution were estimated using the methods of regular moments, modified moments, probability weighted moments, linear moments, maximum likelihood, and entropy for Monte Carlo-generated samples. The performance of these seven estimators was statistically compared, with the objective of identifying the most robust estimator. It was found that in general the methods of probability-weighted moments and L-moments performed better than the methods of maximum likelihood estimation, moments and entropy, especially for smaller values of the coefficient of variation and probability of exceedance.

  • PDF

Adaptive M-estimation using Selector Statistics in Location Model

  • Han, Sang-Moon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.9 no.2
    • /
    • pp.325-335
    • /
    • 2002
  • In this paper we introduce some adaptive M-estimators using selector statistics to estimate the center of symmetric and continuous underlying distributions. This selector statistics is based on the idea of Hogg(1983) and Hogg et. al. (1988) who used averages of some order statistics to discriminate underlying distributions. In this paper, we use the functions of sample quantiles as selector statistics and determine the suitable quantile points based on maximizing the distance index to discriminate distributions under consideration. In Monte Carlo study, this robust estimation method works pretty good in wide range of underlying distributions.

A Study on the Work Crew Based for the Estimation from Construction Analysis of Cement Liquid Waterproofing in Apartment House (공동주택 시멘트 액체방수 공사의 현장분석을 통한 작업조 기반 품셈에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Gee-Joo;Ha, Min-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
    • /
    • v.10 no.3
    • /
    • pp.121-128
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study aims to make improvements to the standard estimation process used to estimate reasonable costs for construction work, and to suggest a work crew based estimation using a new cost estimation model. In addition, work crew shift combination and construction process were systematically organized in order to improve the estimation technique and the construction capability of the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings. In addition, in terms of manpower and productivity, analyses were performed on the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings with net areas between $84-85m^2$ and $125-184m^2$, and the results were then compared with those calculated using the conventional work-crew based estimation method. Through this study, when the results of this study and those calculated by the conventional method were compared, for apartments with the net area of $84-85m^2$, the differences between specialists were shown to be 1.91 times to 2.13 times on average, while they were 8.82 times to 9.52 times between normal workers on average. For apartments with the net area of $125-184m^2$, the differences betweenspecialists were shownto be 1.89 times to 2.07 times on average, and 8.57 times to 9.38 times on average between normal workers.

Estimation of Remaining Useful Life for Bearing of Wind Turbine based on Classification of Trend (상태지수의 경향성 분류에 기반한 풍력발전기 베어링 잔여수명 추정)

  • Yun-Ho Seo;SangRyul Kim;Pyung-Sik Ma;Jung-Han Woo;Dong-Joon Kim
    • Journal of Wind Energy
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.34-42
    • /
    • 2023
  • The reduction of operation and maintenance (O&M) costs is a critical factor in determining the competitiveness of wind energy. Predictive maintenance based on the estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) is a key technology to reduce logistic costs and increase the availability of wind turbines. Although a mechanical component usually has sudden changes during operation, most RUL estimation methods use the trend of a state index over the whole operation period. Therefore, overestimation of RUL causes confusion in O&M plans and reduces the effect of predictive maintenance. In this paper, two RUL estimation methods (load based and data driven) are proposed for the bearings of a wind turbine with the results of trend classification, which differentiates constant and increasing states of the state index. The proposed estimation method is applied to a bearing degradation test, which shows a conservative estimation of RUL.