• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.118-129
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• 2013

Since the obstacles and mines are of the risk factors for operating ships and submarines, the active sonar system is inevitably used to avoid the hazards in ocean environment. In this paper, modeling and simulation algorithm is used for active sonar systemto quantify the measure of mission achievability, which is known as Measure of Effectiveness(MOE), specifically for detection in this study. MOE for detection is directly formulated as a Cumulative Detection Probability(CDP) calculated from Probability of Detection(PD) in range and azimuth. The detection probability is calculated from Transmission Loss(TL) and the sonar parameters such asDirectivity Index (DI) calculated from the shape of transmitted and received array, steered beam patterns, and Reverberation Level (RL). The developed code is applied to demonstrating its applicability.

• Proceedings of the Optical Society of Korea Conference
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• 1999.08a
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• pp.100-101
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• 1999

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.40 no.10
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• pp.95-102
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• 2003

The buffering is a promising solution to resolve the contention problem in optical network. we study the packet loss probability and the dimensioning of optical buffer using a Fiber Delay Line for variable length packet. In this paper, we study the relation between the granularity and the loss of FDL buffer in Single-Stage FDL buffer and propose the Single-Bundle Multi-Stage FDL buffer. The Multi-Stage FDL buffer is too early yet to apply to the current backbone network, considering the current technology in view of costs. but we assume that the above restriction will be resolved in these days. The appropriate number of delay and pass line for a dimensioning is based on a amount of occupied time by packets. Once more another multi-stage FDL buffer is proposed, Split-Bundle multi-stage FDL buffer. The Split-Bundle ms-FDL buffer is more feasible for a FDL buffer structure, considering not only a size of switching matrix but also a bulk of switching element. its feasibility will be demonstrated from a loss probability.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.629-642
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• 1996

ATM switch handles the traffic for a wide range of appliations with different QOS(Quality-of-Service) requirements. In ATM switch, the priority control mechanism is needed to improve effectively the required QOS requirements. In this paper, we propose a priority control mechanism using the cell transfer ratio type and discard threshold in order to archive the cell loss probability requirement and the delay requirement of each service class. The service classes of our concern are the service class with high time priority(class 1) and the service class with high loss priority control mechanism, cells for two kind of service classes are stored and processed within one buffer. In case cells are stored in the buffer, cells for class 2 are allocated in the stored and processed within one buffer. In case cells are stored in the buffer, cells for class 2 are allocated in the shole range of the buffer and cells for class 1 are allocated up to discard threshold of the buffer. In case cells in the buffer are transmitted, one cell for class 1 is transmitted whenever the maximum K cells for class 2 are transmitted consecutively. We analyze the time delay and the loss probability for each class of traffic using Markov chain. The results show that the characteristics of the mean cell delay about cells for class 1 becomes better and that of the cell loss probability about cells for class 2 becomes better by selecting properly discard threshold of the buffer and the cell transfer ratio according to the condition of input traffic.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.80.1-80.1
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• 2016

There are probabilistic forecast models for solar flare occurrence, which can be evaluated by various skill scores (e.g. accuracy, critical success index, heidek skill score, and true skill score). Since these skill scores assume that two types of forecast errors (i.e. false alarm and miss) are equal or constant, which does not take into account different situations of users, they may be unrealistic. In this study, we make an evaluation of a probabilistic flare forecast model [Lee et al., 2012] which use sunspot groups and its area changes as a proxy of flux emergence. We calculate daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014 using this model. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of forecast probability, which corresponds to the maximum skill score depending on flare class and type of a skill score. We use a value score with cost/loss ratio, relative importance between the two types of forecast errors. The forecast probability (y) is linearly changed with the cost/loss ratio (x) in the form of y=ax+b: a=0.88; b=0 (C), a=1.2; b=-0.05(M), a=1.29; b=-0.02(X). We find that the forecast model has an effective range of cost/loss ratio for each class flare: 0.536-0.853(C), 0.147-0.334(M), and 0.023-0.072(X). We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine the probability threshold and the cost/loss ratio for space weather forecast.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1992.04b
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• pp.403-412
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• 1992

This note examines a situation where a risk-neutral insurer and a risk-averse individual (prospective insured) negotiate to reach an arbitration point of the price of insurance over the terms of an insurance contract in order to maximize their respective self-interests. The situation is modeled as a Nash bargaining problem. We analyze the dependence of the price of insurance, which is determined by the Nash solution, on the parameters such as the size of insured loss, the probability of a loss, the degree of risk-aversion of the insured, and the riskiness of loss distribution.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.19-27
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• 2002

Prediction of exact soil loss yield has as important engineering meaning as prediction of exact flow measurement in a stream. The quantity of soil loss in a stream should be considered in planning and management of water resources and water quality such as design and maintenace of hydraulic structures : dams, weirs and seawalls, channel improvement, channel stabilization, flood control, design and operation of reservoirs and design of harbors. In this study, the soil loss of Sap-gyo reservoir watershed is simulated and estimated by RUSLE model which is generally used in the estimation of soil loss. The parameters of RUSLE model are selected and estimated using slope map, landuse map and soil map by GIS. These parameters are applied to RUSLE's estimating program. And soil loss under probability rainfall in different frequencies are estimated by recent 30 years of rainfall data of Sap-gyo reservoir watershed.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.28 no.4B
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• pp.288-297
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• 2003

The fast retransmit and fast recovery algorithm of TCP Reno, when multiple packets in the same window are lost, cannot recover them without RTO (Retransmission Timeout). TCP New-Reno can recover multiple lost packets by extending fast recovery using partial acknowledgement. If the retransmitted packet is lost again during fast recovery, however, RTO cannot be avoided. In this paper, we propose an algorithm called "Duplicate Acknowledgement Counting(DAC)" to alleviate this problem. DAC can detect the retransmitted packet loss by counting duplicate ACKs. Conditions that a lost packet can be recovered by loss recovery of TCP Reno, TCP New-Reno and TCP New-Reno using DAC are derived by modeling loss recovery behavior of each TCP. We calculate the loss recovery probability for random packet loss probability numerically, and show that DAC can improve loss recovery behavior of TCP New-Reno.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.59 no.6
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• pp.1185-1201
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• 2022

Feller introduced an unfair-fair-game in his famous book [3]. In this game, at each trial, player will win 2^k yuan with probability p_k = 1/2^kk(k + 1), k ∈ ℕ, and zero yuan with probability p₀ = 1 - Σ^∞_k=1 p_k. Because the expected gain is 1, player must pay one yuan as the entrance fee for each trial. Although this game seemed "fair", Feller [2] proved that when the total trial number n is large enough, player will loss n yuan with its probability approximate 1. So it's an "unfair" game. In this paper, we study in depth its convergence in probability, almost sure convergence and convergence in distribution. Furthermore, we try to take 2^k = m to reduce the values of random variables and their corresponding probabilities at the same time, thus a new probability model is introduced, which is called as the related model of Feller's unfair-fair-game. We find out that this new model follows a long-tailed distribution. We obtain its weak law of large numbers, strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem. These results show that their probability limit behaviours of these two models are quite different.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.11
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• pp.107-112
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• 2017

This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).