• Water Engineering Research
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.101-109
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• 2004

Aggregating information by combining forecasts from two or more forecasting methods is an alternative to using forecasts from just a single method to improve forecast accuracy. This paper describes the development and use of a monthly inflow forecast model based on an optimal linear combination (OLC) of forecasts derived from naive, persistence, and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts. Using the cross-validation technique, the OLC model made 1-month ahead probabilistic forecasts for the Chungju multi-purpose dam inflows for 15 years. For most of the verification months, the skill associated with the OLC forecast was superior to those drawn from the individual forecast techniques. Therefore this study demonstrates that OLC can improve the accuracy of the ESP forecast, especially during the dry season. This study also examined the value of the OLC forecasts in reservoir operations. Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) derived the optimal operating policy for the Chungju multi-purpose dam operation and the derived policy was simulated using the 15-year observed inflows. The simulation results showed the SDP model that updated its probability from the new OLC forecast provided more efficient operation decisions than the conventional SDP model.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.24-34
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• 2007

Closed-loop active twist control of integral helicopter rotor blades is investigated in this paper for reducing hub vibration induced in forward flight. A four-bladed fully articulated integral twist-actuated rotor system has been designed and tested successfully in wind tunnel in open-loop actuation. The integral twist deformation of the blades is generated using active fiber composite actuators embedded in the composite blade construction. An analytical framework is developed to examine integrally twisted helicopter blades and their aeroelastic behavior during different flight conditions. This aeroelastic model stems from a three-dimensional electroelastic beam formulation with geometrical-exactness, and is coupled with finite-state dynamic inflow aerodynamics. A system identification methodology that assumes a linear periodic system is adopted to estimate the harmonic transfer function of the rotor system. A vibration minimizing controller is designed based on this result, which implements a classical disturbance rejection algorithm with some modifications. Using the established analytical framework, the closed-loop controller is numerically simulated and the hub vibratory load reduction capability is demonstrated.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-7
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• 2005

The inlet boundary condition of computations about the supersonic turbine flow is commonly applied as far-field inlet boundary condition with specified velocity. However, the inflow condition of supersonic turbine is sometimes affected by the shocks or expansion waves propagated from leading edges of blade. These shocks and expansion waves alter the inlet boundary condition. In this case, the inlet boundary condition can not be specified Therefore, in this paper, numerical analyses for three different inlet conditions - fa-field inlet boundary condition, inlet boundary condition with a linear nozzle and inlet boundary condition with a converging-diverging nozzle - have been performed and compared with experimental results to solve the problem. It is found that the inlet condition with a linear nozzle or a converging-diverging nozzle can prevent changing of inlet boundary condition, and thus predict more accurately the supersonic flow within turbine cascade than a far-field inlet boundary condition does.

• 유체기계공업학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2001.11a
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• pp.76-80
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• 2001

Unsteady compressible Euler equation is solved and the high-order, high-resolution numerical solver, physical boundary condition, adaptive nonlinear artificial dissipation model and conformal mapping are applied to computation of steady transonic flow and unsteady acoustics. The acoustic characteristics of axi-symmetric duct and two dimensional straight/S channel are studied and the computation results shows good agreements with linear analysis. In transonic case, local time stepping and canceling-the-residual techniques are used for convergence acceleration. The aspect of flow and acoustics in S-channel and the Pattern of noise radiation is changed by inflow Mach no. and static pressure at fan-face.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.935-941
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• 1998

Experiments were carried out for a cubic cavity flow. Contrinuous shear stress is supplied by driven flow for high Reynolds number and three kinds of aspect ratios. Velocity vectors are obtained by PIV and they are used as velocity components for Poisson equation for pressure, Related boundary conditions and no-slip condition at solid wall and the linear velocity extrapolation on the upper side of cavity are well examined for the present study. For calculation of pressure resolution of grid is basically $40{\times}40$ and 2-dimensional uniform mesh using MSC staggered grid is adopted. The flow field within the cavity maintains a forced-vortex formation and almost of the shear stress from the driving inflow is transformed into rotating flow energy and the size of the distorted forced-vortex increases with increment of Reynolds number

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.2270-2275
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• 2008

수문학적 하도추적법의 하나인 Muskingum 모형은 미 육군공병단(U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)에 의해서 미국 Ohio 주의 Muskingum 유역에 홍수조절계획으로 처음 사용되었으며 모형의 구조 및 입력자료의 단순성에 비하여 비교적 우수한 결과를 모의할 수 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 1938년 McCarthy에 의해서 개발되었고 구간내 총저류량은 prism 저류와 wedge 저류로 구분하여 prism 저류는 유출량에 wedge 저류는 유입량과 유출량의 차에 직접 비례한다는 가정하에 추적식을 개발하였다. 이후 지속적인 연구가 이뤄져 1985년 O'Donnel은 측방유입량(lateral inflow)을 상류단의 유입량에 비례하는 형태로 3-매개변수 muskingum 모형을 제안하여 추적계수의 결정을 선형대수(linear algebra)에서 동차(homogeneous)연립방정식 해를 구하는 Cramer 법칙인 matrix 기법을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 홍수사상으로부터 측방유입량이 고려되고 추적계수 결정에 있어서 직접 계산이 가능한 O'Donnel(1985)이 제안한 3-매개변수 muskingum 모형을 적용하였다. 추적계수들의 결정은 직접 matrix 기법을 적용하였고 적용대상은 낙동강 유역의 낙동 지점을 상류단으로 구미 지점을 하류단으로 선정하였다. 홍수사상은 낙동강 유량측정 조사사업 2005년${\sim}$2007년 보고서에 수록된 수문자료를 선정하여 관측치와 계산치를 비교하였고 홍수사상에 적용하여 수문곡선을 추정하였으며, 각각의 매개변수가 추적구간에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 변수간의 관계를 분석하였다. 또한, 관측치와 계산치의 적합도 검증은 평균제곱근오차(root mean squar error; RMSE)와 모형 효율성 계수(model efficiency; ME)를 산정하여 분석하였으며, 하도 구간내 저류량은 대상구간에 대한 유입량과 유출량의 가중합에 비례한다는 선형모형을 적용하였다.

• Korean Journal of Hydrosciences
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• v.7
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• pp.37-49
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• 1996

This study aims at suggesting an alternative to improve flood controling capacity according to the cument design criteria for the existing Soyanggang Multi-purpose Dam which was constructed 20 years ago as the largest dam in Korea. The peak inflow of the adopted probable maximum flood (PMF) at the time of construction was 13,500 $m^3$/s. However, the newly estimated peak inflow of the PMF is 18,000 $m^3$/s which is 1.34 times bigger than the original one. This is considered to be due to the accumulation of the reliable flood and storm event records after construction, and due to the increasing tendency of the local flood peaks according to the influence of world-wide weather change. The new estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) was based on the hydro-meteorological method suggested by the guideline of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The unit hydrograph which was applied for the estimation of PMF was derived through linear programming algorithm by minimizing the sum of absolute deviations of the calculated and recorded flood hydrographs. In order to adopt the newly estimated PMF as a design flood, following four alternatives were compared : (1) allocation of more flood control space by lowering the normal high water level, (2) construction of a new spillway in addition to the existing spillway, (3) construction of a new dam which has relevant flood control storage at the upstream of the Soyanggang dam, (4) raising the existing dam crest. The preliminary evaluation of these alternatives resulted in that the second alternative is most economic and feasible. So as to stably cope with the newly estimated PMF by meeting all the current functions of the multipurpose dam, a detailed study of an additional spillway tunnel has to be followed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.358-358
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 그동안 수자원분야 강우유출 해석분야에 활용되었던 대표적인 머신러닝&딥러닝(ML&DL) 모델을 활용하여 모델의 하이퍼파라미터 튜닝뿐만 아니라 모델의 특성을 고려한 기상 및 수문데이터의 조합과 전처리(lag-time, 이동평균 등)를 통하여 데이터 특성과 ML&DL모델의 조합시나리오에 따른 일 유입량 예측성능을 비교 검토하는 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 소양강댐 유역을 대상으로 1974년에서 2021년까지 축적된 기상 및 수문데이터를 활용하여 1) 강우, 2) 유입량, 3) 기상자료를 주요 영향변수(독립변수)로 고려하고, 이에 a) 지체시간(lag-time), b) 이동평균, c) 유입량의 성분분리조건을 적용하여 총 36가지 시나리오 조합을 ML&DL의 입력자료로 활용하였다. ML&DL 모델은 1) Linear Regression(LR), 2) Lasso, 3) Ridge, 4) SVR(Support Vector Regression), 5) Random Forest(RF), 6) LGBM(Light Gradient Boosting Model), 7) XGBoost의 7가지 ML방법과 8) LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory models), 9) TCN(Temporal Convolutional Network), 10) LSTM-TCN의 3가지 DL 방법, 총 10가지 ML&DL모델을 비교 검토하여 일유입량 예측을 위한 가장 적합한 데이터 조합 특성과 ML&DL모델을 성능평가와 함께 제시하였다. 학습된 모형의 유입량 예측 결과를 비교·분석한 결과, 소양강댐 유역에서는 딥러닝 중에서는 TCN모형이 가장 우수한 성능을 보였고(TCN>TCN-LSTM>LSTM), 트리기반 머신러닝중에서는 Random Forest와 LGBM이 우수한 성능을 보였으며(RF, LGBM>XGB), SVR도 LGBM수준의 우수한 성능을 나타내었다. LR, Lasso, Ridge 세가지 Regression모형은 상대적으로 낮은 성능을 보였다. 또한 소양강댐 댐유입량 예측에 대하여 강우, 유입량, 기상계열을 36가지로 조합한 결과, 입력자료에 lag-time이 적용된 강우계열의 조합 분석에서 세가지 Regression모델을 제외한 모든 모형에서 NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) 0.8이상(최대 0.867)의 성능을 보였으며, lag-time이 적용된 강우와 유입량계열을 조합했을 경우 NSE 0.85이상(최대 0.901)의 더 우수한 성능을 보였다.

• Korean Circulation Journal
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• v.54 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2024

Background and Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management. Methods: Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression. Results: There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032. Conclusions: We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.12
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• pp.1321-1330
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• 2012

In this study, the daily inflow at the basin of Chungju dam is predicted using wavelet-artificial neural network for nonlinear model. Time series generally consists of a linear combination of trend, periodicity and stochastic component. However, when framing time series model through these data, trend and periodicity component have to be removed. Wavelet transform which is denoising technique is applied to remove nonlinear dynamic noise such as trend and periodicity included in hydrometeorological data and simple noise that arises in the measurement process. The wavelet-artificial neural network (WANN) using data applied wavelet transform as input variable and the artificial neural network (ANN) using only raw data are compared. As a results, coefficient of determination and the slope through linear regression show that WANN is higher than ANN by 0.031 and 0.0115 respectively. And RMSE and RRMSE of WANN are smaller than those of ANN by 37.388 and 0.099 respectively. Therefore, WANN model applied in this study shows more accurate results than ANN and application of denoising technique through wavelet transforms is expected that more accurate predictions than the use of raw data with noise.