Korean Circulation Journal

The Korean Society of Cardiology (대한심장학회)
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Estimation of Supply and Demand for Cardiologists in Korea

  • Mira Kim (Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea) ;
  • Kyunghee Chae (Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea) ;
  • Ju Mee Wang (The Korean Cardiac Research Foundation) ;
  • Arum Choi (Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea) ;
  • Jang-Whan Bae (Department of Internal Medicine, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Chungbuk National University, College of Medicine) ;
  • Keon-Woong Moon (Department of Internal Medicine, St. Vincent's Hospital, The Catholic University of Korea) ;
  • Sukil Kim (Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea)
  • Received : 2023.07.27
  • Accepted : 2023.12.05
  • Published : 2024.01.01
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Abstract

Background and Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management. Methods: Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression. Results: There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032. Conclusions: We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

This manuscript reflects the views of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Korean Circulation Journal or the Korean Society of Cardiology.

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