• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.127-127
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• 2021

In order to estimate parameter uncertainty of hydrological models, the consideration of the likelihood functions which provide reliable parameters of model is necessary. In this study, the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with informal likelihood functions is used to analyze the uncertainty of parameters of the SURR model for estimating the hourly streamflow of Gunnam station of Imjin basin, Korea. Three events were used to calibrate and one event was used to validate the posterior distributions of parameters. Moreover, the performance of four informal likelihood functions (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, Normalized absolute error, Index of agreement, and Chiew-McMahon efficiency) on uncertainty of parameter is assessed. The indicators used to assess the uncertainty of the streamflow simulation were P-factor (percentage of observed streamflow included in the uncertainty interval) and R-factor (the average width of the uncertainty interval). The results showed that the sensitivities of parameters strongly depend on the likelihood functions and vary for different likelihood functions. The uncertainty bounds illustrated the slight differences from various likelihood functions. This study confirms the importance of the likelihood function selection in the application of Bayesian MCMC to the uncertainty assessment of the SURR model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.635-642
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• 2005

In statistical diagnostics a large number of influence measures have been proposed for identifying outliers and influential observations. However it seems to be few accounts of the influence diagnostics on test statistics. We study influence analysis on the likelihood ratio test statistic whether the two sets of variables are uncorrelated with one another or not. The influence of observations is measured using the case-deletion approach, the influence function. We compared the proposed influence measures through two illustrative examples.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.1-7
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• 1995

This paper considers the reliability estimation of a two-component shared-load system based on Freund model. Maximum likelihood estimator, order restricted maximum likelihood estimator and uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the reliability function for the system are obtained. Performance of three estimators for moderate sample sizes is studied by simulation.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1231-1239
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• 2012

An estimating procedure is introduced for kernel Poisson regression when the input variables consist of numerical and categorical variables, which is based on the penalized negative log-likelihood and the component-wise product of two different types of kernel functions. The proposed procedure provides the estimates of the mean function of the response variables, where the canonical parameter is linearly and/or nonlinearly related to the input variables. Experimental results are then presented which indicate the performance of the proposed kernel Poisson regression.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1327-1334
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• 2008

Mixed effect binomial regression models are widely used for analysis of correlated count data in which the response is the result of a series of one of two possible disjoint outcomes. In this paper, we consider kernel extensions with nonparametric fixed effects and parametric random effects. The estimation is through the penalized likelihood method based on kernel trick, and our focus is on the efficient computation and the effective hyperparameter selection. For the selection of hyperparameters, cross-validation techniques are employed. Examples illustrating usage and features of the proposed method are provided.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.153-160
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• 2008

This paper presents the log likelihood function for integrated models for ALT such as exponential-general Eyring, Weibull-temperature and specific heat, lognormal-temperature and specific heat. Additionally this paper estimates the system reliability and mean time to failure(MTTF) for series, parallel, k of n, and standby system using ALT linkage parameter. Lastly this study designs three variable reliability acceptance sampling(RAS) plans such as type I, II censored test, sequential test by the use of integrated models for ALT.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.493-505
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• 2017

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is known to sometimes over-estimate the positive value of the shape parameter for the small sample size. The maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE) with Beta penalty function was proposed by some researchers to overcome this problem. But the determination of the hyperparameters (HP) in Beta penalty function is still an issue. This paper presents some data adaptive methods to select the HP of Beta penalty function in the MPLE framework. The idea is to let the data tell us what HP to use. For given data, the optimal HP is obtained from the minimum distance between the MLE and MPLE. A bootstrap-based method is also proposed. These methods are compared with existing approaches. The performance evaluation experiments for GEVD by Monte Carlo simulation show that the proposed methods work well for bias and mean squared error. The methods are applied to Blackstone river data and Korean heavy rainfall data to show better performance over MLE, the method of L-moments estimator, and existing MPLEs.

• Speech Sciences
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.11-26
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• 2000

In this paper, we propose the HMM with the MIN module. Because initial and re-estimated variance vectors are important elements for performance in HMM recognition systems, we propose a method which compensates for the mismatched statistical feature of training and test data. The MIN module function is a differentiable function similar to the sigmoid function. Unlike a continuous density function, it does not include variance vectors of the data set. The proposed hybrid HMM/MIN module is a unified network in which the observation probability in the HMM is replaced by the MIN module neural network. The parameters in the unified network are re-estimated by the gradient descent method for the Maximum Likelihood (ML) criterion. In estimating parameters, the variance vector is not estimated because there is no variance element in the MIN module function. The experiment was performed to compare the performance of the proposed HMM and the conventional HMM. The experiment measured an isolated number for speaker independent recognition.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.657-666
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• 2011

In this paper, we derive the maximum likelihood estimator(MLE) and some approximate maximum likelihood estimators(AMLEs) of the scale parameter in an exponentiated half logistic distribution based on progressively Type-II censored samples. We compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error(MSE) through a Monte Carlo simulation for various censoring schemes. We also obtain the AMLEs of the reliability function.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.349-361
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• 2009

In this paper, we derive the approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the shape parameter and the scale parameter in a Weibull distribution under multiply Type-II censoring by the approximate maximum likelihood estimation method. We develop three modified empirical distribution function type tests for the Weibull distribution based on multiply Type-II censored samples. We also propose modified normalized sample Lorenz curve plot and new test statistic.