• 전기학회논문지P
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• 제59권2호
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• pp.202-205
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• 2010

In this paper, mechanical reliability(Life-time) estimation method for 25.8kV SIS(Solid Insulated Switchgear) has been studied. Recently enacted KEPCO's standard includes clause that have to submit a warrantable reliability data for life-time(over B10 25 years) of an epoxy-solid insulating material. Accordingly, this research was carried out on the ALT(Accelerated Life Test) and Life-Estimation method for SIS's insulating material. Mechanical life-time estimation for SIS's insulating material is to verify reliability for tensile creep & fatigue stress, which is the major mechanical stress of SIS. This study proved that SIS's reliability for mechanical stress and established that confidence for estimation results in further verification test.

• 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전기전자재료학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회 논문집 유기절연재료 방전 플라즈마
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• pp.46-49
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• 2000

This paper studied development of the program for estimation the life time of insullating materials and the longtime breakdown voltage. First, short-time breakdown voltage of Epoxy and insulating oil was measured. Life exponent was gained from measurement of insulating breakdown time of the specimens. Life time is presumed from program. The estimation program is based on the "Inverse Power Law", defined $V^nt$ is constant. After gaining the life exponent n, it is mapping the longtime breakdown voltages. On the base of life exponent, the estimation the lifetime and usefulness of the insulation systems are possible, furthermore easy calculation is possible.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.25-32
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• 2017

For repairable software systems, the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) is used as a measure of software system stability. Therefore, the evaluation of software reliability requirements or reliability characteristics can be applied MTBF. In this paper, we want to compare MTBF in terms of parameter estimation using Makeham life distribution. The parameter estimates used the least square method which is regression analyzer method and the maximum likelihood method. As a result, the MTBF using the least square method shows a non-decreased pattern and case of the maximum likelihood method shows a non-increased form as the failure time increases. In comparison with the observed MTBF, MTBF using the maximum likelihood estimation is smallerd about difference of interval than the least square estimation which is regression analyzer method. Thus, In terms of MTBF, the maximum likelihood estimation has efficient than the regression analyzer method. In terms of coefficient of determination, the mean square error and mean error of prediction, the maximum likelihood method can be judged as an efficient method.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.5-12
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• 2014

Building has been deteriorated gradually owing to geographic, physical complex and other factors. School living condition has a key role to improve the learning ability, life attitude and qualifications to adopt to social life. Therefore, it is important for school environment to keep the living condition. Repair time and scope of school facilities are required to maintain the function and performance to plan the long term repair. But there are little information about the school maintenance such as repair time and function. In this paper, it aimed at providing the service life to suggest the repair time and scope in the roof-proofing and floor finishing which used the three estimation method in probabilistic approach. The service life has a key role to decide the repair time and to make the plan for the repair maintenance. Results of this study are as follows ; First, the 1st repair time were taken through three methods in probabilistic and deterministic functions to eliminate the estimation bias. Second, the service life is suggested 36 years of an elementary school, 34 years of a middle school and 41 years of a high school. Third, the service life of a floor finishing is 43 years of an elementary, 39 years of a middle school and 41 years of a high school. The above study could not include the detailed information about the materials and repair works. Therefore it needs a further study to reflect the detailed information and to make a repair strategy.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.212-218
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems with respect to sample sizes. To compare accuracy in reliability estimation methods, quantal-response data, characterizing one-shot systems, were simulated using failure times of LED obtained through the accelerated life test, and then the true reliability over time was evaluated using the failure times. The simulated quantal-response data were used to estimate the true reliability through applying reliability estimation methods in open literature. Accuracy of each reliability estimation method was compared in terms of both SSE (Sum of Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), and then estimation trend for each method is found. Feasible bounds which true reliability would exist within were estimated through applying the found trends to quantal-response data set of a real weapon system.

• 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전기전자재료학회 2000년도 하계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.699-702
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• 2000

Today, electrical machine is being large capacitor and EHV(Extra High Voltage) of power equipment is a need of high reliability of insulating matetials. Therefore, it is a need of fixed appraisement of lifetime to used data of breakdown. This paper studied a development of the program for estimation the lifetime of insullating materials and the long-time breakdown voltage by experimentation. The estimation program is based on the "Inverse Power Law", defined V$\^$n/t is constant. After gaining the life exponent n, it is mapping the long-time breakdown voltages. On the base of life exponent, the estimation of lifetime and usefulness of the insulation systems are possible, furthermore easy calculation is possible.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권10호
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• pp.1995-1999
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• 2009

A partial discharge(PD) measurement is a very effective method to assess the insulation condition of high-voltage machines. It is necessary that the life time of the on-line PD measurement sensor is assessed. Therefore, the electrical life time assessment method of ceramic element was reviewed in order to estimate the life time of the on-line PD measurement sensor. The samples were prepared according to the reviewed method and were tested at 8kV, 9kV and 10kV. Based on the obtained results, the life time constant is shown above 59. Also, it is assumed that the estimated life time constant can be used to anticipate the life time and to assess the conformity of the on-line PD measurement sensor.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2012

PURPOSES: The new methodology is proposed for estimation of long-term performance and pavement life based on the national highway database in Daejeon area. Furthermore, this study tried to verify the applicability of performance estimation using NHPCI (National Highway Pavement Condition Index) on tendency of pavement deterioration as time goes by under Korean road environments. METHODS: Reliability theories are applied to estimate the mean life and to determine the appropriate distribution using 3 levels of traffic loads (high, medium, low) based on maintenance and rehabilitation history data for 15 years. RESULTS: As a result, Lognormal distribution is suitable for explanation of pavement lifetime in Daejeon area regardless of traffic loads. In addition, we found that the results of mean life and maintenance timing based on NHPCI for the pavement sections of 3 levels of traffic loads are available. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this study, it was found that mean life of high, medium and low levels of traffic loads are about 8.1 years, 12.2 years and 12.7 years, respectively. Higher level of traffic loads shorten the pavement mean life.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제12권2호통권28호
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• pp.65-70
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• 1998

In this report, the creep properties and creep life estimation by Larson-Miller Parameter(LMP) Method for 2.25Cr1Mo steel to be used as power plant tubes or other components were presented at the high temperatures of 500, 550, and $600^{\circ}C$. It was confirmed experimentally and quantitatively that a creep life estimation equation at such various high temperatures was well derived by LMP and could be used very effectively within the creep life of 10$^3$ hours, but very unreliable and even dangerous for design in a long term of creep life such as 10$^4$ or $10^5$ hours.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제19권8호
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• pp.77-84
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• 2005

수명예측을 하기 위한 기초 자료로 ACSR의 기계적 시험의 일종인 인장시험이 필요하다. 이 인장시험의 결과들이 경년 변화에 대해 어떤 상관관계가 있는가를 파악하여 통계적으로 처리함으로써 수명예측을 해 볼 수 있다. 통계적 처리기법으로는 회귀분석 방법이 일반적이다. 본 연구에서는 ACSR의 인장시험을 건전 전선과 인공화염으로 열화시킨 전선과, 산불 화염 의해 수거된 열화된 전선에 대해 실시하였다. 수명예측의 한계는 캐나다 Ontario Hydro Research의 기준인 정격 인장강도의 20[%] 손실점을 택하였다. 본 연구에 이용된 ACSR의 규격은 ACSR $480[mm^2]$을 대상으로 하여 비선형 회귀분석을 실시하여 예측수명을 제시하였다.