• Title/Summary/Keyword: Latent Mean

Search Result 159, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Bayesian Outlier Detection in Regression Model

  • Younshik Chung;Kim, Hyungsoon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.3
    • /
    • pp.311-324
    • /
    • 1999
  • The problem of 'outliers', observations which look suspicious in some way, has long been one of the most concern in the statistical structure to experimenters and data analysts. We propose a model for an outlier problem and also analyze it in linear regression model using a Bayesian approach. Then we use the mean-shift model and SSVS(George and McCulloch, 1993)'s idea which is based on the data augmentation method. The advantage of proposed method is to find a subset of data which is most suspicious in the given model by the posterior probability. The MCMC method(Gibbs sampler) can be used to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation. Finally, a proposed method is applied to a simulated data and a real data.

  • PDF

Experiences of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Treatment for the North Korean Refugees

  • Kim, Beong Ki;Kim, Hee Jin;Kim, Ho Jin;Cha, Jae Hyung;Lee, Jin Beom;Jeon, Jeonghe;Kim, Chi Young;Kim, Young;Kim, Je Hyeong;Shin, Chol;Lee, Seung Heon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.82 no.4
    • /
    • pp.306-310
    • /
    • 2019
  • Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is increasing in immigrants. We aimed to investigate the current status of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) treatment for North Korean Refugees (NKR) compared to South Koreans Contacts (SKC). Methods: TB close contacts in a closed facility of SKC and NKR who underwent LTBI screening in a settlement support center for NKR were analyzed retrospectively. Results: Among tuberculin skin test (TST) ${\geq}10mm$ (n=298) reactors, the males accounted for 72.2% in SKC (n=126) and 19.5% in NKR (n=172) (p<0.01). The mean age was higher in South Korea ($42.8{\pm}9.9years$ vs. $35.4{\pm}10.0years$, p<0.01). Additionally, the mean TST size was significantly bigger in NKR ($17.39{\pm}3.9mm$ vs. $16.57{\pm}4.2mm$, p=0.03). The LTBI treatments were initiated for all screened NKR, and LTBI completion rate was only 68.0%. However, in NKR, LTBI treatment completion rate was significantly increased by shorter 4R regimen (odds ratio [OR], 9.296; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.159-20.774; p<0.01) and male (OR, 3.447; 95% CI, 1.191-9.974; p=0.02). Conclusion: LTBI treatment compliance must be improved in NKR with a shorter regimen. In addition, a larger study regarding a focus on LTBI with easy access to related data for NKR should be conducted.

A Study on the Estimation of Air-Sea Heat Fluxes and the Wave Characteristics using Chilbaldo Buoy Data (칠발도 Buoy자료를 이용한 해양-대기 열교환량 산출 및 파랑 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Youn, Yong-Hoon;Hong, Sung-Gil;Hong, Yoon;Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.3 no.1
    • /
    • pp.9-15
    • /
    • 1998
  • Hourly meteorological data from a marine buoy ($34^{\circ}49'00"N$, $125^{\circ}46'00"E$) operated by the Korean Meteorological Agency were obtained from July, 1996 to February, 1997. From the data air-sea heat fluxes and marine meteorological characteristics around the area are estimated. The maximum outflux of sensible heat from the sea surface occurred in January (monthly mean value, 12.6 $Wm^{-2}$ and the maximum influx to the sea occurred in July (monthly mean value, 5.5 $Wm^{-2}$). This means that the sea is heated in summer while it loses its heat in winter, and that there is inequality between the absolute values of the two seasons. The outflux of the maximum latent heat occurred in November (monthly mean value, 86.5 $Wm^{-2}$) and reach a value of 300 $Wm^{-2}$, and the maximum influx occurred in July (monthly mean value, 4.6 $Wm^{-2}$). Big difference is shown in their absolute values when the wind becomes strong. The outgoing latent heat flux reaches its maximum in autumn, and it maintains the high value through the whole winter. According to the wave data analysis, the significant wave heights are larger in winter than in summer. The periods of the significant waves are 4~6 sec. In winter, waves propagated from north and northeast are dominant because of the winter monsoon, while in summer waves from south, southwest, and west are relatively frequent.

  • PDF

Comparison of the Korean and US Stock Markets Using Continuous-time Stochastic Volatility Models

  • CHOI, SEUNGMOON
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-22
    • /
    • 2018
  • We estimate three continuous-time stochastic volatility models following the approach by Aït-Sahalia and Kimmel (2007) to compare the Korean and US stock markets. To do this, the Heston, GARCH, and CEV models are applied to the KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Index. For the latent volatility variable, we generate and use the integrated volatility proxy using the implied volatility of short-dated at-the-money option prices. We conduct MLE in order to estimate the parameters of the stochastic volatility models. To do this we need the transition probability density function (TPDF), but the true TPDF is not available for any of the models in this paper. Therefore, the TPDFs are approximated using the irreducible method introduced in Aït-Sahalia (2008). Among three stochastic volatility models, the Heston model and the CEV model are found to be best for the Korean and US stock markets, respectively. There exist relatively strong leverage effects in both countries. Despite the fact that the long-run mean level of the integrated volatility proxy (IV) was not statistically significant in either market, the speeds of the mean reversion parameters are statistically significant and meaningful in both markets. The IV is found to return to its long-run mean value more rapidly in Korea than in the US. All parameters related to the volatility function of the IV are statistically significant. Although the volatility of the IV is more elastic in the US stock market, the volatility itself is greater in Korea than in the US over the range of the observed IV.

Tuberculin Skin Test and QuantiFERON-TB Gold Assay before and after Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection among Health Care Workers in Local Tertiary Hospital (일개 병원의 의료인에서 투베르쿨린 검사와 QuantiFERON-TB Gold 검사를 이용한 잠복결핵의 진단과 치료 전후의 변화)

  • Lee, Seung Jun;Kim, Hyeon Sik;Ma, Jung Eun;Lee, Sang Min;Ham, HyunSeok;Cho, Yu Ji;Jeong, Yi Yeong;Kim, Ho Cheol;Lee, Jong Deok;Kim, Sun-Joo;Hwang, Young Sil
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
    • /
    • v.62 no.4
    • /
    • pp.270-275
    • /
    • 2007
  • The QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay and tuberculin skin test (TST) have been useful test for diagnosing latent tuberculosis infections (LTBI). However, there are few reports on the efficacy of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay and TST in evaluating the response after the treatment of LTBI. This study examined the changes in the TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay before and after a treatment for latent tuberculosis in health care workers (HCWs) at a local tertiary hospital. Methods: A cohort of volunteers working as nurses and doctors who underwent a TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay was established. The volunteers positive for the QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay had been treated with 3 months of isoniazid (INH) and rifampin (RFP). After completing treatment, the TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay were repeated. Results: Of the 48 participants (14 doctors, 34 nurses, M: F=11:37, mean $age=29.9{\pm}5.5$ years, mean employment $period=74.9{\pm}64.3$ months), 19 (39.6%) tested positive to the TST (mean induration=$19.1{\pm}9.7mm$) and 8 (16.7%) were QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay. Among them, one had active pulmonary tuberculosis. Seven volunteers were consistently positive to both the TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay after being medicated with INH and RFP for 3 months. Conclusion: TST and QuantiFERON-TB Gold assay are unsuitable for evaluating the treatment response of LTBI because they were consistently positive both before and after the anti-tuberculosis medication.

Re-validation of the Revised Systems Thinking Measuring Instrument for Vietnamese High School Students and Comparison of Latent Means between Korean and Vietnamese High School Students (베트남 고등학생을 대상으로 한 개정 시스템 사고 검사 도구 재타당화 및 한국과 베트남 고등학생의 잠재 평균 비교)

  • Hyonyong Lee;Nguyen Thi Thuy;Byung-Yeol Park;Jaedon Jeon;Hyundong Lee
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.45 no.2
    • /
    • pp.157-171
    • /
    • 2024
  • The purposes of this study were: (1) to revalidate the revised Systems Thinking Measuring Instrument (Re_STMI) reported by Lee et al. (2024) among Vietnamese high school students and (2) to investigate the differences in systems thinking abilities between Korean and Vietnamese high school students. To achieve this, data from 234 Vietnamese high school students who responded to translated Re_STMI consisting of 20 items and an Scale consisting of 20 items were used. Validity analysis was conducted through item response analysis (Item Reliability, Item Map, Infit and Outfit MNSQ, DIF between male and female) and exploratory factor analysis (principal axis factor analysis using Promax). Furthermore, structural equation modeling was employed with data from 475 Korean high school students to verify the latent mean analysis. The results were as follows: First, in the item response analysis of the 20 translated Re_STMI items in Vietnamese, the Item Reliability was .97, and the Infit MNSQ ranged from .67 to 1.38. The results from the Item Map and DIF analysis align with previous findings. In the exploratory factor analysis, all items were loaded onto intended sub-factors, with sub-factor reliabilities ranging from .662 to .833 and total reliability at .876. Confirmatory factor analysis for latent mean analysis between Korean and Vietnamese students yielded acceptable model fit indices (χ2/df: 2.830, CFI: .931, TLI: .918, SRMR: .043, RMSEA: .051). Lastly, the latent mean analysis between Korean and Vietnamese students revealed a small effect size in systems analysis, mental models, team learning, and shared vision factors, whereas a medium effect size was observed in personal mastery factors, with Vietnamese high school students showing significantly higher results in systems thinking. This study confirmed the reliability and validity of the Re_STMI items. Furthermore, international comparative studies on systems thinking using Re_STMI translated into Vietnamese, English, and other languages are warranted in the context of students' systems thinking analysis.

Public Safety Comparative Analysis for Night Park Users (1994/2008) (야간공원 이용자 공공안전성평가(1994/2008) 비교분석)

  • Lee, Jong-Sung;Lee, Duck-Jae
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.551-559
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study aims to find out negative factors against public safety in urban parks. Longitudinal data between 1994 and 2008 were analyzed to suggest management implication for high quality security and safety in urban park. Results are summarized as follows. Firstly, investigation of visitor to the park at night reveals that visitors who were elderly, walking out, and family group increased, and that most visitors took a stroll for one hour around 8:00pm. Olympic park (e.g. leisure facility 66.7%), Hyo-won park (e.g. vacant lot 23.8%), Jang-an park (e.g. near hedge 30.1%), and Mae-tan park (e.g. leisure facility 20.8%) were revealed as latent places of serious criminals. Secondly, both in 1994 and in 2008, principal factors of public safety were summarized as fear for violence(X1) and fear for closed space(X3). These factors took 3.22 followed by 3.07 respectively in the overall mean of public safety of parks. Thirdly, overall mean of public safety takes 2.22 in 1994 and 2.96 in 2008, which shows uncertainty of effective management of facilities with a viewpoint of visitors. All parks shows negative trend in public safety, in short.

Estimation of the air temperature over the sea using the satellite data

  • Kwon B. H.;Hong G. M.;Kim Y. S.
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 2005.10a
    • /
    • pp.392-393
    • /
    • 2005
  • Due to the temporal and spatial simultaneity and the high-frequency repetition, the data set retrieved from the satellite observation is considered to be the most desirable ones for the study of air-sea interaction. With rapidly developing sensor technology, satellite-retrieved data has experienced improvement in the accuracy and the number of parameters. Nevertheless, since it is still impossible to directly measure the heat fluxes between air and sea, the bulk method is an exclusive way for the evaluation of the heat fluxes at the sea surface. It was noted that the large deviation of air temperature in the winter season by the linear regression despite good correlation coefficients. We propose a new algorithm based on the Fourier series with which the SST and the air temperature. We found that the mean of air temperature is a function of the mean of SST with the monthly gradient of SST inferred from the latitudinal variation of SST and the spectral energy of air temperature is related linearly to that of SST. An algorithm to obtain the air temperature over the sea was completed with a proper analysis on the relation between of air temperature and of SST. This algorithm was examined by buoy data and therefore the air temperature over the sea can be retrieved based on just satellite data.

  • PDF

Analysis of Environmental Change after Planting for Prevention of Stone Hazarding Guizhou, China (중국 귀주성 석막화 방지 조림 후 환경변화 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
    • /
    • v.13 no.5
    • /
    • pp.180-188
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study was carried out to evaluate the analysis of environmental change (forest resources and soil water conservation by land types) after planting for prevention of between 2003 and 2006 from the stone hazarding areas in Guizhou province, China. Mean diameter growth of the trees was highest for Melia azedarach, followed by Robinia pseudoacacia, Lonicera fulvotomentosa, Choerospondias axillaris, Cupressus duclouxiana, and Eucommia uimoides Oliv. Mean height growth of the trees was greatest for R. pseudoacacia, followed by Ilex kudincha, M. azedarach, C. duclouxiana, C. axillaris, E. uimoides Oliv, Zanthoxylum bungeanum, and L. fulvotomentosa. Tree biomass was greater at the afforestation sites by 1.22-1.71 ton/ha compared to that of severely eroded mountain areas. The capacities of soil water conservation by land types were 2,790 ton/ha at latent rock desertification farmland, 2,655 ton/ha at rock desertification farmland, 1,680 ton/ha at dolomite sandstone hilly country, 1,650 ton/ha at halfstony hilly country, and 1,590 ton/ha at karst physiognomy site. Soil erosion was estimated to be 1,285 ton/$km^2$ which had been 2,178 ton/$km^2$ before afforestation. Also, we should be continuative manage after planting for prevention of the stone hazarding areas in Guizhou province, China.

Development of Algerian Weighted Mean Temperature Model for High Accurate Precipitable Water Vapor (고정확도 가강수량 획득을 위한 알제리 가중평균기온 모델 개발)

  • Sim, SeungHye;Song, DongSeob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.33 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-62
    • /
    • 2015
  • The water vapor including latent heat is the important component in an atmospheric circulation and in a monitoring of the Earth's climate changes, as well as in the weather forecast improvement. In this study, to establish the Algerian weighted mean temperature model, a linear regression method had been developed under 5 radiosonde observations for a total 24,694 profiles from 2004 to 2013. An weighted mean temperature is a key parameter in the processing of PWV from GNSS tropospheric delays. The result from the study has expected to provide an useful model to demonstrate the realization and utility of using the ground-based GNSS meteorology technique that will bring improvements in weather forecasting, climate monitoring in Algeria.