• Title/Summary/Keyword: Large deviations

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Combining Judgments for Better Decisions: A Study for Investigating Effective Combining Schemes

  • Lee, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 1996
  • Facing decision-making tasks, managers frequently make judgments, However, since managers are human beings, the fficiency of their judgments is limited. Two major sources of inefficiency in their judgments have been recognized : one is systematic deviations from normatively preferred decisions, so called bias or incorrect intuition, and the other is inconsistency in their judgments, i. e. erratic decision making variance. Rather than bias, variance is really expensive or damaging. Thus, if the inconsistency inmanagers judgments is removed, performance could be by far improved by virtue of the reduced random variance. One of the approaches to improve managerial judgment is to simply bring managers together by effectively moderating the random variance due to inconsistency. Focusing on combining judgments, this paper addresses many relevant issues such as why combining and how to combine judgments, and suggests methods and models to effectively aggregate subjective judgments, We conduct an experiment to validata the effectiveness of combining jugements over individual judgments. Various combining schemes are also evaluated in terms of their prective accuracy. Among them, mean bias based wighting scheme turns out the best. However, when available information is not enough to estimate the expertise of judges, simple and robust equal weighting might be more efficient and productive. This urges an imperative future research on the issue of how many and which ones to combine from a large set of experts.

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Radiation Characteristics of a Circular Loop Antenna in Moving Media. (운동매질내에서의 Circula Loop Antenna의 방사특성(II))

  • 최병하
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 1972
  • In this paper, the radiation characteristics of a large circular loop antenna with sinusoidal current distribution is studded in a moving media with a constant velocity much less than the speed of light. The diameter of the circular loop antenna is comparable with or larger than wave length. In studing the radiation characteristics, vector potential for the antenna is derived and relative field pattern is plotted from the vector potentials. Finally the field patterns are compared with those of stationary media. It is found that maximum directivities are shifted to the direction of the velocity of the media, and the field intensities are decreased in that direction and increased in opposite direction by the velocity component paralell to the loop plane. It is also found that the deviations for the pattern are proportional to the velocity of the media, the frequency of the distributed current, the diameter of the loop antenna, and the daviation depends only upon the parallel component of the velocity to the loop plane.

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Quality analysis of Reconstituted tobacco ( I ) - On the Physical and Structural properties - (판상엽 품질 특성 분석 (제1보) - 물리적ㆍ구조적 특성에 관하여 -)

  • 한영림;나도영;김삼곤;김근수;강영희
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Tobacco Science
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2004
  • A comparative analysis of characteristics of domestic and foreign reconstituted tobacco based on papermaking was conducted to evaluate the quality of reconstituted tobacco and to utilize as basic data for improvement of domestic reconstituted tobacco. In the formation, which is key factor to quality and physical properties of product, foreign reconstituted tobacco has better uniform formation than those of domestic one. These result was attributed to distribution of large floc size in the domestic one unevenly. In the fiber morphology, domestic reconstituted tobacco has larger average fiber length and width than those of foreign one. They indicated that fiber morphology of domestic one will exert structural properties of paper such as formation and permeability. Tensile strength of domestic one has lower than those of foreign one by basis weight. In the air permeability, domestic one was remarkably reduced because base web was over sized. It also will affect the combustibility of reconstituted tobacco. In summary, we conclude that the physical and structural properties of domestic reconstituted tobacco result in quality deviations compared with foreign reconstituted tobacco.

Bayesian estimation of the Korea professional baseball players' hitting ability based on the batting average (한국프로야구 선수들의 타율에 기반된 타격 능력의 베이지안 추정)

  • Cho, Yong Ju;Lee, Kwang Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2015
  • In baseball game, the hitting ability of batter is frequently assessed by a batting average, a run batted in, a home run, a run scored, an on-base percentage, etc. Recently, more comprehensive indicators such as OPS, ISO, SECA, TA, RC and XR are often used. But, these measures generally shows large deviations since they are calculated from the data for a certain period of time, and they are not an estimate of a population parameter, either. In this paper, we will presume the pure hitting ability of the korea professional baseball players as a parameter which is depend upon at bat. We will estimate the parameter by using the Bayesian method.

Fault Identification Matrix in Linear Networks (선형회로에 있어서의 결함식별 매트릭스)

  • 임광호
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 1972
  • A method utilizing vector representation is investigated for determining a faulty elenlent in passive and active networks by simple external measurements. A large system may be considered as an interconnection of a number of subnetlvorks. By utilizing the relationships between the magintudes of a transfer function at various frequencies and the deviations of a circuit element, the fault simulation curves can be drawn. The fault identification regions are defined from the fault simulation curves. A fault identlfication matrix is constructed corresponding the defined fault identification regions. The fault identification matrix, when premultiplied by a vector whose components are measured from a network, yieldg another vector whose components identify a network element which is faulty. A test procedure for the fault identification method is presented and verified by experiments.

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Development of Wall-Thinning Evaluation Procedure for Nuclear Power Plant Piping-Part 1: Quantification of Thickness Measurement Deviation

  • Yun, Hun;Moon, Seung-Jae;Oh, Young-Jin
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.820-830
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    • 2016
  • Pipe wall thinning by flow-accelerated corrosion and various types of erosion is a significant and costly damage phenomenon in secondary piping systems of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Most NPPs have management programs to ensure pipe integrity due to wall thinning that includes periodic measurements for pipe wall thicknesses using nondestructive evaluation techniques. Numerous measurements using ultrasonic tests (UTs; one of the nondestructive evaluation technologies) have been performed during scheduled outages in NPPs. Using the thickness measurement data, wall thinning rates of each component are determined conservatively according to several evaluation methods developed by the United States Electric Power Research Institute. However, little is known about the conservativeness or reliability of the evaluation methods because of a lack of understanding of the measurement error. In this study, quantitative models for UT thickness measurement deviations of nuclear pipes and fittings were developed as the first step for establishing an optimized thinning evaluation procedure considering measurement error. In order to understand the characteristics of UT thickness measurement errors of nuclear pipes and fittings, round robin test results, which were obtained by previous researchers under laboratory conditions, were analyzed. Then, based on a large dataset of actual plant data from four NPPs, a quantitative model for UT thickness measurement deviation is proposed for plant conditions.

Feature Weighting in Projected Clustering for High Dimensional Data (고차원 데이타에 대한 투영 클러스터링에서 특성 가중치 부여)

  • Park, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.228-242
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    • 2005
  • The projected clustering seeks to find clusters in different subspaces within a high dimensional dataset. We propose an algorithm to discover near optimal projected clusters without user specified parameters such as the number of output clusters and the average cardinality of subspaces of projected clusters. The objective function of the algorithm computes projected energy, quality, and the number of outliers in each process of clustering. In order to minimize the projected energy and to maximize the quality in clustering, we start to find best subspace of each cluster on the density of input points by comparing standard deviations of the full dimension. The weighting factor for each dimension of the subspace is used to get id of probable error in measuring projected distances. Our extensive experiments show that our algorithm discovers projected clusters accurately and it is scalable to large volume of data sets.

Analysis of NOx Emissions in Thrbulent Nonpremixed Hydrogen-Air Jet Flames with Coaxial Air (동축 수소 확산화염에서의 NOx 생성 분석)

  • Park, Y.H.;Kim, S.L.;Moon, H.J.;Yoon, Y.B.;Jeung, I.S.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Combustion
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2000
  • The characteristics of NOx emissions in pure hydrogen nonpremixed flames with coaxial air are analyzed numerically for the three model cases of coaxial air flames classified by varying coaxial air velocity and/or fuel velocity. In coaxial air flames, the flame length is reduced by coaxial air and can be represented as a function of the ratio of coaxial air to fuel velocity. Coaxial air decreases flame reaction zone, resulting in reducing flame residence time significantly. Finally, the large reduction of EINOx is achieved by the decrease of the flame residence time. It is found that because coaxial air can break down the flame self-similarity law, appropriate scaling parameters, which are different from those in the simple jet flames, are recommended. In coaxial air flames, the flame residence time based on the flame volume produces better results than that based on a cube of the flame length. And some portion of deviations from the 1/2 scaling law by coaxial air may be due to the violation of the linear relationship between the flame volume and the flame reaction zone.

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Statistical Design of CV-CUSUM Control Chart Using Fast Initial Response (FIR을 이용한 CV-CUSUM 관리도의 통계적 설계)

  • Lee, Jung-Hoon;Kang, Hae-Woon;Hong, Eui-Pyo;Kang, Chang-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.313-321
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    • 2010
  • The coefficient of variation represents the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean, and it is a useful statistic for comparing the degree of variation from one data series to another, even if the means are drastically different from each other. Recently, the CV control chart is developed for monitoring processes in such situations. However, the CV control chart has low performance in detecting small shift. Due to the development of equipment and technique, currently, small shift of process occurs more frequently than large shift. In this paper, we proposes the CV-CUSUM control chart using CUSUM scheme which is cumulative sum of the deviations between each data point and a target value to detect a small shift in the process. We also found that the FIR(fast initial response) CUSUM control chart is especially valuable at start-up or after a CV-CUSUM control chart has signaled out-of-control.

The Physical Characteristics of Early Adolescent Girls (청소년 전기 여학생의 연령별 인체 특성)

  • Jeong Hwa-Yeon;Suh Mi-A
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.13 no.2 s.55
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    • pp.255-268
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to identify the physical characteristics of early adolescent girls by age. A total of 529 girls aged between 10 and 14 were measured and data were collected from 42 anthropometric and 41 photographic measurements per a person. SAS 8.1 was used in data analysis including means, standard deviations, t-test, Duncan test and frequency analysis. The results of this study are as follows. Most items related to height and length increased significantly at the age of $10\sim11$ and the growth slowed down at the age of $13\sim14$. As for items related to circumference, the growth rate was high at the age of $11\sim12$, and gradually slowed down afterward. Out of circumference items, hip circumference showed the highest growth rate. As for items related to thickness and width, thickness-related items grew quickly at the age of $10\sim12$, and among which bust thickness showed the highest growth rate. As for drop, the difference between hip circumference and waist circumference was most remarkable, but the difference between hip circumference and bust circumference was not large. The largest number of subjects had their menarche during the age of $11\sim12$ and, after menarche, their horizontal growth became active.

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