• Title/Summary/Keyword: L-모멘트기법

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Development of drought frequency analysis program (가뭄빈도해석 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Jeong Ju;Kang, Shin Uk;Chun, Gun Il;Kim, Hyeon Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2020
  • 일반적으로 수문빈도해석은 치수계획 수립에 이용되는 설계강수량, 계획홍수량 등을 산정하기 위해 연최대치계열 또는 연초과치계열 자료를 이용한 극치빈도해석을 수행하고, 확률분포의 우측꼬리(right tail) 부분을 이용하여 확장된 재현기간에 해당하는 확률수문량을 추정한다. 하지만 가뭄 관련 분석에서는 확률분포의 좌측꼬리(left tail) 부분은 이용해 확장된 재현기간별 확률수문량을 추정해야할 경우가 발생한다. 또한 물관리 실무에서 장 단기 운영계획 수립을 위해 이용하는 갈수빈도 유입량 산정 등에서도 평년보다 작은 수문량에 대한 빈도해석이 필요한 경우가 있다. 국가 가뭄정보분석센터에서는 기존에 K-water연구원에서 개발한 빈도해석 프로그램인 K-FAT의 분석모듈을 이용해 극소치계열 또는 갈수빈도 유입량 분석에 특화된 가뭄빈도해석 프로그램을 개발하였다. 본 프로그램은 GEV, Gumbel, Weibull 등 14개의 확률분포형을 포함하며, 모멘트법, 최우도법 및 L-모멘트법을 사용하여 매개변수를 추정한다. 적합도 검정의 경우 χ2, K-S, CVM, PPCC 및 수정 Anderson-Darling test를 이용하여 다각적인 검정을 할 수 있도록 하였다. 분석을 위한 입력 자료의 경우 사용자가 전처리를 통해 준비한 연최소치계열 등 연도별 시계열자료를 이용할 수 있으며, 일단위 및 월단위의 강수량 또는 댐 유입량 자료를 이용해 사용자가 원하는 기간의 누적강수량, 평균 유입량으로 변환할 수 있는 자료변환 기능을 추가하여 실무 활용성을 높였다. 또한 최적 확률분포 선정을 위해 참고할 수 있도록 AIC(Akaike information criteria)와 BIC(Bayesian information criteria) 분석이 포함되어 있으며, Bootstrap 기법 등을 이용한 불확실성 산정을 통해 추정 값의 신뢰구간을 표시하도록 하였다. 개발된 프로그램은 베타버전 시험배포를 거쳐 가뭄정보포털을 통해 배포할 예정이다.

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Analysis and Design of Mat Foundation for High -Ribe Buildings (초고층 건물의 전면기초(MAT 기초) 해석 및 설계)

  • Hong, Won-Gi;Hwang, Dae-Jin;Gwon, Jang-Hyeok
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.51-70
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    • 1995
  • Types of foundation of high rise buildings are primarily determined by loads transmitted from super structure, soil bearing capacity and available construction technology, The use of deep foundation of the buildings considered in this study due to the fact that rock of enough bearing capacity is not found down until 90~l00m. When a concentration of high soil pressure must be distributed over the entire building area, when small soft soil areas must be bridged, and when compressible strata are located at a shallow depth, mat foundation may be useful in order to have settlement and differential settlement of variable soils be minimized. The concept of mat foundation will also demonstrate some difficulties of applications if the load bearing demand directly carried down to the load -bearing strata exceeds the load -bearing capacity. This paper introduces both the analysis and design of mat type foundation for high rise buildings as well as the method-ology of modelling of the soil foundation, especially, engineered to redistribute the stress exceeding the soil bearing capacity. This process will result in the wide spread of stresses over the entire building foundation.

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Position and Attitude Control System Design of Magnetic Suspension and Balance System for Wind Tunnel Test using Iterative Feedback Tuning and L1 Adaptive Control Scheme (IFT와 L1 적응제어기법을 이용한 풍동실험용 자기부상 비접촉식 밸런스의 제어시스템 설계)

  • Lee, Dong-Kyu
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2017
  • Magnetic Suspension and Balance System (MSBS) demonstrates the capacity to levitate an experimental model absent any mechanical contact using magnetic forces and moments. It allows precise control of position and attitude of the model, and measures external forces and moments acting on the model. For the purpose of acquisition of reliable experimental results under stable and safe conditions, the performance and robustness of the position and attitude control system of MSBS needs to be improved. To this end, Iterative Feedback Tuning (IFT) and L1 adaptive output feedback algorithm were employed to automatically increase command following performance and to ensure robust operation of MSBS with failure of electric power supply. The applicability was validated using computational simulation.

A Study of EM Wave Penetration and Scattering of Open Cylindrical Cavity (2차원 Open Cylindrical Cavity의 전자파 투과 및 산란특성연구)

  • Kim, Young-Joo;Cho, Young-Ki
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2001
  • Field penetration and scattering characteristics of two dimensional open cylindrical cavity is studied. Exact analysis for this sort of structure is not achieved even if there are unusual phenomena of field penetration and scattering with cavity and aperture size. In this paper, we calculate a wide range of open cavity characteristics by using of FMM method, which is extended method of MOM. We find external mode of open cylindrical cavity corresponding to internal mode of closed cavity. The characteristics of resonance and scattering of this region is different compare with non resonant area. The result of study will apply to the EM wave shielding and RCS control.

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Estimation of Flood Damage Using Bayesian Approach (Bayesian 기법을 이용한 홍수피해액 산정)

  • You, Jong Hyun;Yi, Choong Sung;Kim, Hung Soo;Shim, Myung Pil
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.742-747
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    • 2004
  • 최근 들어 지구온난화에 따른 이상기후 및 집중호우 빈발 그리고 급격한 도시화와 산업화는 예측하기 어려운 수문현상의 변화를 유발시키고 있다. 이에 따른 유출양상의 변화는 수문분석에 의한 기존의 설계기준에도 변화를 요구하고 있다. 즉, 설계빈도의 무조건적인 상향조정에 따른 확정론적인 방법에 의존하기보다는 수문량의 변화를 통계학적으로 반영한 수 있도록 불확실성 분석이 필요하게 되었다. 따라서 설계홍수량에 따른 범람면적별 홍수피해액을 산정할 때 설계홍수량에 대한 불확실성 분석을 수행함으로써 안전율을 고려 할 범람과 홍수피해액을 추정할 수 있는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 Bayesian에 의해 불확실성을 고려한 빈도별 설계홍수량을 산정하였으며, HEC-GeoRAS와 HEC-RAS 및 ArcView GIS 3.2a를 이용해 홍수범람면적을 수치지형도에 도시하고, 범람면적별 홍수피해액을 산정하였다. 또한, 불확실성을 고려하지 않은 경우에 대해서는 L-모멘트법을 이용해 설계홍수량을 구하고 홍수범람면적파 홍수피해액을 산정하였다. 불확실성의 고려 여부에 따른 설계홍수량과 예상 홍수피해액을 비교${\cdot}$분석한 결과 불확실성을 고려한 경우가 불확실성을 고려하지 않은 경우에 비해 설계홍수량은 $7\~33\%$, 예상 홍수피해액은 $1\~4\%$정도 차이를 보였다.

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Development of a nonstationary regional frequency analysis model (비정상성 지역빈도해석 모형 개발)

  • Jung, Min-Kyu;Moon, Jangwon;Kim, Yun-Sung;Park, Sungsu;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.433-433
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    • 2022
  • 수자원 관리를 위한 설계수문량의 산정은 수문자료의 통계적 특성을 고려한 빈도해석을 통해 이루어지며, 대상 관측지점에 대해 개별적으로 수행되는 지점빈도해석과 수문학적으로 동질하다고 판단되는 지점들의 자료를 동시에 고려하는 지역빈도해석으로 분류된다. 기후변화에 의한 미래 수문량의 변동성을 고려하기 위해 비정상성 빈도해석이 요구되나 짧은 기록을 갖는 수문자료로부터 정확한 변화 추세를 평가하기 어렵다. 이에 따라 지역빈도해석을 통해 자료를 확충함으로써 자료에 대한 신뢰성을 확보하고 지역 전체에 대해 대표성을 갖는 확률수문량을 산정하는 것이 합리적이다. 본 연구에서는 극치강수량의 지역빈도해석에서 비정상성을 고려하기 위해 단순선형회귀 모형을 통해 시간항에 대한 강수량의 경향성을 탐지하였다. 계층적 Bayesian 모형을 통해 Partial Pooling 기법을 적용함으로써 기존 L-모멘트 방법(complete pooling)에서 고려하지 못하는 개별지역의 강수 특성을 고려하였으며 불확실성을 정량화하였다. 한강 유역 18개 지점의 극치강수량에 대해 비정상성 평가 결과 대부분 지점에서 양의 기울기를 확인하였으며 미래 빈도별 확률강수량의 증가율을 제시한다.

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Stability Evaluation Methods of Agricultural Reservoir by Field Monitoring (현장계측에 의한 농업용저수지 제체의 안정관리기법)

  • Lee, Dal-Won;Oh, Beom-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.164-174
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    • 2003
  • This study was performed to suggest a rational method for the stability evaluation of agricultural reservoir in the very soft ground. The stability methods for agricultural reservoir was used to compare and analyze with various condition by limit equilibrium method. The behavior of settlement-displacement obtained by field monitoring system was used to compare and analyze with various stability methods, and to investigate the applicability of the methods for stability evaluation of agricultural reservoir. The horizontal displacement was abruptly increased when physical properties of soft clay reached its maximum values and therefore, the values of these properties could be used to the fundamental data for stability evaluation. The evaluation of the stability of agricultural reservoir was suggested to use the inclination of curve rather than critical line.

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Development of Hierarchical Bayesian Spatial Regional Frequency Analysis Model Considering Geographical Characteristics (지형특성을 활용한 계층적 Bayesian Spatial 지역빈도해석)

  • Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lim, Jeong-Yeul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.469-482
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    • 2014
  • This study developed a Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis, which aimed to analyze spatial patterns of design rainfall by incorporating geographical information (e.g. latitude, longitude and altitude) and climate characteristics (e.g. annual maximum series) within a Bayesian framework. There are disadvantages to considering geographical characteristics and to increasing uncertainties associated with areal rainfall estimation on the existing regional frequency analysis. In this sense, this study estimated the parameters of Gumbel distribution which is a function of geographical and climate characteristics, and the estimated parameters were spatially interpolated to derive design rainfall over the entire Han-river watershed. The proposed Bayesian spatial regional frequency analysis model showed similar results compared to L-moment based regional frequency analysis, and even better performance in terms of quantifying uncertainty of design rainfall and considering geographical information as a predictor.

Efficient Modal Analysis of Prestressed Structures via Model Order Reduction (모델차수축소법을 이용한 프리스트레스 구조물의 효율적인 고유진동해석)

  • Han, Jeong-Sam
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1211-1222
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    • 2011
  • It is necessary to use prestressed modal analysis to calculate the modal frequencies and mode shapes of a prestressed structure such as a spinning blade, a preloaded structure, or a thermally deformed pipe, because the prestress effect sometimes causes significant changes in the frequencies and mode shapes. When the finite element model under consideration has a very large number of degrees of freedom, repeated prestressed modal analyses for investigating the prestress effects might become too computationally expensive to finish within a reasonable design-process time. To alleviate these computational difficulties, a Krylov subspace-based model order reduction, which reduces the number of degrees of freedom of the original finite element model and speeds up the necessary prestressed modal analysis with the reduced order models (ROMs), is presented. The numerical process for the moment-matching model reduction is performed directly on the full order models (FOMs) (modeled in ANSYS) by the Arnoldi process. To demonstrate the advantages of this approach for performing prestressed modal analysis, the prestressed wheel and the compressor impeller under their high-speed rotation are considered as examples.

Regional frequency analysis using spatial data extension method : I. An empirical investigation of regional flood frequency analysis (공간확장자료를 이용한 지역빈도분석 : I. 지역홍수빈도분석의 실증적 검토)

  • Kim, Nam Won;Lee, Jeong Eun;Lee, Jeongwoo;Jung, Yong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.439-450
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    • 2016
  • For the design of infrastructures controlling the flood events at ungauged basins, this study tries to find the regional flood frequencies using peak flow data generated by the spatial extension of flood records. The Chungju Dam watershed is selected to validate the possibility of regional flood frequency analysis using the spatially extended flood data. Firstly, based on the index flood method, the flood event data from the spatial extension method is evaluated for 22 mid/smaller sub-basins at the Chungju Dam watershed. The homogeneity of the Chungju dam watershed was assessed in terms of the different size of watershed conditions such as accumulated and individual sub-basins. Based on the result of homogeneity analysis, this watershed is heterogeneous with respect to individual sub-basins because of the heterogeneity of rainfall distribution. To decide the regional probability distribution, goodness-of fit measure and weighted moving averages method from flood frequency analysis were adopted. Finally, GEV distribution was selected as a representative distribution and regional quantile were estimated. This research is one step further method to estimate regional flood frequency for ungauged basins.