• 제목/요약/키워드: Intervention Model

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ARIMA-Intervention 시계열모형을 활용한 제주 국내선 항공여객수요 추정 (A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using time series ARIMA-Intervention Model)

  • 김민수;김기웅;박성식
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.66-75
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of intervention variables which may affect the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights and to anticipate the air travel demand for Jeju domestic flights. The air travel demand forecasts for Jeju domestic flights are conducted through ARIMA-Intervention Model selecting five intervention variables such as 2002 World Cup games, SARS, novel swine-origin influenza A, Yeonpyeongdo bombardment and Japan big earthquake. The result revealed that the risk factor such as the threat of war that is a negative intervention incident and occurred in Korea has the negative impact on the air travel demand due to the response of risk aversion by users. However, when local natural disasters (earthquakes, etc) occurring in neighboring courtiers and global outbreak of an epidemic gave the negligible impact to Korea, negative intervention incident would have a positive impact on air travel demand as a response to find alternative due to rational expectation of air travel customers. Also we realize that a mega-event such as the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup games reduced the air travel demand in a short-term period unlike the perception in which it will increase the air travel demand and travel demands in the corresponding area.

Clinical Outcomes of Perioperative Geriatric Intervention in the Elderly Undergoing Hip Fracture Surgery

  • Jang, Il-Young;Lee, Young Soo;Jung, Hee-Won;Chang, Jae-Suk;Kim, Jung Jae;Kim, Hye-Jin;Lee, Eunju
    • Annals of Geriatric Medicine and Research
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    • 제20권3호
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    • pp.125-130
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    • 2016
  • Background: Conventionally, elderly hip fracture patients are assessed by orthopedists to decide whether they need geriatric intervention. We aimed to evaluate the effect of perioperative geriatric intervention on healthcare outcomes in patients undergoing surgery for hip fractures. Methods: Our care model for hip fracture surgery resembles a combination of a routine geriatric consultation model and a geriatric ward model. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients aged ${\geq}65years$ undergoing surgery for hip fracture at a single tertiary hospital from January 2010 to December 2013. We assessed comorbidity, indwelling status, fracture type, and mode of anesthesia. We also evaluated in-hospital expenditure, duration of admission, disposition at discharge and 1-year mortality as clinical outcomes. We developed a propensity score model using the variables of age, cholesterol, and creatinine and examined the effect of perioperative geriatric intervention on intergroup differences of clinical variables. Results: Among 639 patients, 138 patients received the geriatric intervention and 501 patients received the usual care. Univariate analysis showed that factors such as age; Charlson comorbidity index; and serum levels of cholesterol, albumin, and creatinine differed significantly between these 2 groups. There was no significant difference between the groups in terms of 1-year mortality, disposition at discharge, and in-hospital expenditure in the propensity matched model. However, the duration of hospitalization was shorter in the intervention group ($8.9{\pm}0.8days$) than in the usual care group ($14.2{\pm}3.7days$, p=0.006). Conclusion: This care model of geriatric intervention for patients with hip fracture is associated with reduced hospitalization duration.

Effects of Sexual Rehabilitation Using the PLISSIT Model on Quality of Sexual Life and Sexual Functioning in Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Survivors

  • Faghani, Safieh;Ghaffari, Fatemeh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권11호
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    • pp.4845-4851
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    • 2016
  • Background and Objectives: As one of the most common treatments for breast cancer, mastectomy has adverse effects on the quality of sexual life and sexual functioning in the impacted women. Various strategies have therefore been proposed to resolve their sexual problems. The present study was conducted to determine the effect of sexual rehabilitation using the PLISSIT model in post-mastectomy breast cancer survivors. Materials and Methods: The present quasi-experimental study was conducted on a population of post-mastectomy breast cancer survivors and their husbands. Sample size was calculated as 50 each for intervention and non-intervention groups. The former received sexual counseling based on the PLISSIT model consisting of four levels of intervention: permission, limited information, specific suggestion and intensive therapy, presented in four 90-minute sessions. Data were collected using the Sexual Quality of Life-Female (SQOL-F) questionnaire and the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). Results: No significant differences were observed in the mean quality of sexual life scores between the intervention and control groups (P>0.05) before the intervention; however, a significant difference emerged between the groups after the intervention (P<0.01). Thus the mean score for sexual functioning in the intervention group was $26.3{\pm}3.76$ before and $30.0{\pm}4.38$ after the intervention (P<0.0001). In the control group, however, the difference between the pre- and post-intervention mean scores was not statistically significant (P=0.713). Conclusion: The present study showed that nurses can use the PLISSIT model in conjunction with chemotherapy and radiotherapy to teach coping and problem-solving skills to women with breast cancer and their husbands and to encourage their participation in group programs for expressing their feelings and attitudes about their current sex life and thus help enhance quality of sexual life and sexual functioning in this group.

대사증후군 상태 개선을 위한 생활습관 중재프로그램의 프로그램 이론 평가 (Program Theory Evaluation of a Lifestyle Intervention Program for the Prevention and Treatment of Metabolic Syndrome)

  • 유승현;김혜경
    • 보건교육건강증진학회지
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the program theory of a lifestyle intervention program for the prevention and treatment of metabolic syndrome. Methods: The program evaluated is a tailored intervention for multiple health behavior associated with metabolic syndrome which is informed by theoretical constructs from the Intervention Mapping and Transtheoretical model. The program components include one-to-one health counseling, a self-management handbook, and a health diary. To evaluate program impact theory we examined the logic of program goals and objectives, intervention methods and strategies, and the theoretical constructs of program materials through document review and matrix building. Results: This evaluation has found that the intervention program applied social cognitive theory constructs to design intervention methods and strategies in addition to the Transtheoretical model: self-monitoring for goal setting and monitoring skill, outcome expectation for the benefits of health behavior change, and interaction with environment for observational learning through modeling. While the intervention addresses multiple determinants and behaviors, it is limited to an individual level and lacks social and environmental approaches. Following the Transtheoretical framework, the contents of the intervention materials were developed utilizing consciousness raising as a main strategy for earlier stages of change, and counterconditioning and stimulus control for later stages of change. Conclusion: Program theory evaluation can be a process of enhancing program validity. It would also be necessary for providing basis for efficient program implementation. When comparisons of program theory between similar programs are possible, program theory and validity will be strengthened when comparisons of program theories between similar programs are possible.

Health Blief Model-based intervention to improve nutritional behavior among elderly women

  • Iranagh, Jamileh Amirzadeh;Rahman, Hejar Abdul;Motalebi, Seyedeh Ameneh
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.352-358
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    • 2016
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Nutrition is a determinant factor of health in elderly people. Independent living in elderly people can be maintained or enhanced by improvement of nutritional behavior. Hence, the present study was conducted to determine the impact of Health Belief Model (HBM)-based intervention on the nutritional behavior of elderly women. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Cluster-random sampling was used to assess the sample of this clinical trial study. The participants of this study attended a 12-week nutrition education program consisting of two (2) sessions per week. There was also a follow-up for another three (3) months. Smart PLS 3.5 and SPSS 19 were used for structural equation modeling, determination of model fitness, and hypotheses testing. RESULTS: The findings indicate that intervention had a significant effect on knowledge improvement as well as the behavior of elderly women. The model explained 5 to 70% of the variance in nutritional behavior. In addition, nutritional behavior was positively affected by the HBM constructs comprised of perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, perceived benefits, and barriers after the intervention program. CONCLUSION: The results of this study show that HBM-based educational intervention has a significant effect in improving nutritional knowledge and behavior among elderly women.

계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측 (Optimal Forecasting for Sales at Convenience Stores in Korea Using a Seasonal ARIMA-Intervention Model)

  • 정동빈
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제14권11호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - During the last two years, convenient stores (CS) are emerging as one of the most fast-growing retail trades in Korea. The goal of this work is to forecast and to analyze sales at CS using ARIMA-Intervention model (IM) and exponential smoothing method (ESM), together with sales at supermarkets in South Korea. Considering that two retail trades above are homogeneous and comparable in size and purchasing items on off-line distribution channel, individual behavior and characteristic can be detected and also relative superiority of future growth can be forecasted. In particular, the rapid growth of sales at CS is regarded as an everlasting external event, or step intervention, so that IM with season variation can be examined. At the same time, Winters ESM can be investigated as an alternative to seasonal ARIMA-IM, on the assumption that the underlying series shows exponentially decreasing weights over time. In case of sales at supermarkets, the marked intervention could not be found over the underlying periods, so that only Winters ESM is considered. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The dataset of this research is obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (1/2010~7/2016) and Survey of Service Trend of Korea Statistics Administration. This work is exploited time series analyses such as IM, ESM and model-fitting statistics by using TSPLOT, TSMODEL, EXSMOOTH, ARIMA and MODELFIT procedures in SPSS 23.0. Results - By applying seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to sales at CS, the steep and persisting increase can be expected over the next one year. On the other hand, we expect the rate of sales growth of supermarkets to be lagging and tied up constantly in the next 2016 year. Conclusions - Based on 2017 one-year sales forecasts for CS and supermarkets, we can yield the useful information for the development of CS and also for all retail trades. Future study is needed to analyze sales of popular items individually such as tobacco, banana milk, soju and so on and to get segmented results. Furthermore, we can expand sales forecasts to other retail trades such as department stores, hypermarkets, non-store retailing, so that comprehensive diagnostics can be delivered in the future.

운동행위변화단계에 근거한 노인 운동 동기화 중재프로그램의 효과에 관한 연구 (The Study on the Effect of Stage Based Exercise Motivational Intervention Program for the Elderly)

  • 이평숙;장성옥
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제31권5호
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    • pp.818-834
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    • 2001
  • This study aims at confirming exercise effects on obesity, mobility, self-efficacy, process of change, and decisional component by stage based exercise motivational intervention program for the elderly. The stage based exercise intervention program was constructed based on Transtheoretical Model. Methods: The design of this study is nonequivalent control group with repeated measuring by quasi-experimental study. The subjects of this study, composing of experimental group of 32 and control group of 28 were selected at one institution for the aged in Seoul. Results: 1) The body fat (weight, BMI and circumference of waist), of the intervention group was significantly decreased than the control group. 2) The mobility of the intervention group was not significantly increased than control group. 3) The self-efficacy, Pros, Process of Change for exercise of the intervention group was not significantly increased than the control group. 4) The Cons for exercise of intervention group was not significantly decreased than the control group. Conclusion: The above result have informed us that a stage-based exercise motivational intervention program for the elderly has the effect of decreasing old persons' body fat and has value as an effective means of nursing for the elderly.

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The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • DING, Xingong;WANG, Mengzhen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2022
  • This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.

Behavioral Interventions for Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Brief Review and Guidelines With a Specific Focus on Applied Behavior Analysis

  • Kyong-Mee Chung;Eunsun Chung;Hoomyung Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2024
  • We conducted a comprehensive review of behavioral and educational interventions for individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The most prominent type of intervention, Comprehensive Early Intervention, often referred to as Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention (EIBI), has been found to be particularly effective in improving intelligence and adaptive behaviors. The naturalistic developmental behavioral intervention, designed to enhance social and communication abilities, showed effectiveness in improving language, cognitive function, and social initiation. However, more studies are needed to examine its effectiveness. Intensive individualized intervention, which provides a tailored intervention for a specific target behavior, was effective in improving social skills and communication, as well as reducing sleep, eating, and toileting problems. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) is the most effective method for dealing with emotional difficulties, but it has not been widely used because of the shortage of trained experts. Parent-mediated intervention (PMI) involves parents acquiring knowledge and specific skills to improve their child's functioning or reduce challenging behaviors. Speech and language therapy, sensory integration, Treatment and Education of Autistic and related Communications Handicapped Children, developmental approaches, and social stories are frequently used interventions. However, evidence of their effectiveness has yet to be well established. Based on these findings, intervention recommendations for autism include EIBI, Early Start Denver Model, intensive individualized intervention, CBT, and PMI. The choice of intervention should be tailored to the individual's needs and delivered by qualified professionals with expertise in the specific intervention.

개입모형을 이용한 한국의 입출국자 수의 분석 (Intervention Analysis of Korea Tourism Data)

  • 김수용;성병찬
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제24권5호
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    • pp.735-743
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    • 2011
  • 본 논문에서는 개입모형(intervention model)을 이용하여 한국의 입출국자 시계열 자료를 분석한다. 개입분석을 위하여 1997년 12월의 IMF 구제금융사건, 2003년의 3월의 SARS 발생, 그리고 2008년의 9월의 리먼브라더스 사태를 개입변수로 고려하였다. 그 결과, 한국의 총 입국자 수에는 SARS 개입변수만이 2003년 4월부터 영향을 미치기 시작하여 2003년 5월부터 급격하게 감소하는 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 한국의 총 출국자 수에는 모든 3가지 개입의 효과가 유의하게 나타났으며 특히 IMF 개입변수는 1997년 12월부터 영구적인 영향을 미친 것으로 보이며 SARS 및 리먼브라더스 개입변수는 점차로 감소하는 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다.