The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Intervention Analysis of Korea Tourism Data

개입모형을 이용한 한국의 입출국자 수의 분석

  • 김수용 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과) ;
  • 성병찬 (중앙대학교 응용통계학과)
  • Received : 20110300
  • Accepted : 20110300
  • Published : 2011.10.31
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Abstract

This study analyzes inbound and outbound Korea tourism data through an intervention model. For the analysis, we adopt three intervention factors: (1) IMF bailout crisis in December 1997, (2) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) outbreak in March 2003, and (3) Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. The empirical results show that only the SARS factor lowered inbound tourism from April 2003 with a drastic decline in May 2003 and gradually decaying since then. However, all three factors significantly lowered tourism in the case of outbound tourism. Especially, the effect of the IMF is shown to be permanent from December 1997 and the effects of SARS and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy abrupt and temporary with a gradual decay.

본 논문에서는 개입모형(intervention model)을 이용하여 한국의 입출국자 시계열 자료를 분석한다. 개입분석을 위하여 1997년 12월의 IMF 구제금융사건, 2003년의 3월의 SARS 발생, 그리고 2008년의 9월의 리먼브라더스 사태를 개입변수로 고려하였다. 그 결과, 한국의 총 입국자 수에는 SARS 개입변수만이 2003년 4월부터 영향을 미치기 시작하여 2003년 5월부터 급격하게 감소하는 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 한국의 총 출국자 수에는 모든 3가지 개입의 효과가 유의하게 나타났으며 특히 IMF 개입변수는 1997년 12월부터 영구적인 영향을 미친 것으로 보이며 SARS 및 리먼브라더스 개입변수는 점차로 감소하는 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

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