• Title/Summary/Keyword: Integration method

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Clinical Usefulness of PET-MRI in Lymph Node Metastasis Evaluation of Head and Neck Cancer (두경부암 림프절 전이 평가에서 PET-MRI의 임상적 유용성)

  • Kim, Jung-Soo;Lee, Hong-Jae;Kim, Jin-Eui
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.26-32
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: As PET-MRI which has excellent soft tissue contrast is developed as integration system, many researches about clinical application are being conducted by comparing with existing display equipments. Because PET-MRI is actively used for head and neck cancer diagnosis in our hospital, lymph node metastasis before the patient's surgery was diagnosed and clinical usefulness of head and neck cancer PET-MRI scan was evaluated using pathological opinions and idiopathy surrounding tissue metastasis evaluation method. Materials and Methods: Targeting 100 head and neck cancer patients in SNUH from January to August in 2013. $^{18}F-FDG$ (5.18 MBq/kg) was intravenous injected and after 60 min of rest, torso (body TIM coil, Vibe-Dixon) and dedication (head-neck TIM coil, UTE, Dotarem injection) scans were conducted using $Bio-graph^{TM}$ mMR 3T (SIEMENS, Munich). Data were reorganized using iterative reconstruction and lymph node metastasis was read with Syngo.Via workstation. Subsequently, pathological observations and diagnosis before-and-after surgery were examined with integrated medical information system (EMR, best-care) in SNUH. Patient's diagnostic information was entered in each category of $2{\times}2$ decision matrix and was classified into true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN). Based on these classified test results, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, false negative and false positive rate were calculated. Results: In PET-MRI scan results of head and neck cancer patients, positive and negative cases of lymph node metastasis were 49 and 51 cases respectively and positive and negative lymph node metastasis through before-and-after surgery pathological results were 46 and 54 cases respectively. In both tests, TP which received positive lymph node metastasis were analyzed as 34 cases, FP which received positive lymph node metastasis in PET-MRI scan but received negative lymph node metastasis in pathological test were 4 cases, FN which received negative lymph node metastasis but received positive lymph node metastasis in pathological test was 1 case, and TN which received negative lymph node metastasis in both two tests were 50 cases. Based on these data, sensitivity in PET-MRI scan of head and neck cancer patient was identified to be 97.8%, specificity was 92.5%, accuracy was 95%, FN rate was 2.1% and FP rate was 7.00% respectively. Conclusion: PET-MRI which can apply the acquired functional information using high tissue contrast and various sequences was considered to be useful in determining the weapons before-and-after surgery in head and neck cancer diagnosis or in the evaluation of recurrence and remote detection of metastasis and uncertain idiopathy cervical lymph node metastasis. Additionally, clinical usefulness of PET-MRI through pathological test and integrated diagnosis and follow-up scan was considered to be sufficient as a standard diagnosis scan of head and neck cancer, and additional researches about the development of optimum MR sequence and clinical application are required.

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Development of Marker-free TaGlu-Ax1 Transgenic Rice Harboring a Wheat High-molecular-weight Glutenin Subunit (HMW-GS) Protein (벼에서 밀 고분자 글루테닌 단백질(TaGlu-Ax1) 발현을 통하여 쌀가루 가공적성 증진을 위한 마커프리(marker-free) 형질전환 벼의 개발)

  • Jeong, Namhee;Jeon, Seung-Ho;Kim, Dool-Yi;Lee, Choonseok;Ok, Hyun-Choong;Park, Ki-Do;Hong, Ha-Cheol;Lee, Seung-Sik;Moon, Jung-Kyung;Park, Soo-Kwon
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.26 no.10
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    • pp.1121-1129
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    • 2016
  • High-molecular-weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GSs) are extremely important determinants of the functional properties of wheat dough. Transgenic rice plants containing a wheat TaGlu-Ax1 gene encoding a HMG-GS were produced from the Korean wheat cultivar ‘Jokyeong’ and used to enhance the bread-making quality of rice dough using the Agrobacterium-mediated co-transformation method. Two expression cassettes with separate DNA fragments containing only TaGlu-Ax1 and hygromycin phosphotransferase II (HPTII) resistance genes were introduced separately into the Agrobacterium tumefaciens EHA105 strain for co-infection. Rice calli were infected with each EHA105 strain harboring TaGlu-Ax1 or HPTII at a 3:1 ratio of TaGlu-Ax1 and HPTII. Among 210 hygromycin-resistant T0 plants, 20 transgenic lines harboring both the TaGlu-Ax1 and HPTII genes in the rice genome were obtained. The integration of the TaGlu-Ax1 gene into the rice genome was reconfirmed by Southern blot analysis. The transcripts and proteins of the wheat TaGlu-Ax1 were stably expressed in rice T1 seeds. Finally, the marker-free plants harboring only the TaGlu-Ax1 gene were successfully screened in the T1 generation. There were no morphological differences between the wild-type and marker-free transgenic plants. The quality of only one HMW-GS (TaGlu-Ax1) was unsuitable for bread making using transgenic rice dough. Greater numbers and combinations of HMW and LMW-GSs and gliadins of wheat are required to further improve the processing qualities of rice dough. TaGlu-Ax1 marker-free transgenic plants could provide good materials to make transgenic rice with improved bread-making qualities.

An Empirical Study on the Effect of CRM System on the Performance of Pharmaceutical Companies (고객관계관리 시스템의 수준이 BSC 관점에서의 기업성과에 미치는 영향 : 제약회사를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun-Jung;Park, Jong-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.43-65
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    • 2010
  • Facing a complex environment driven by a decade, many companies are adopting new strategic frameworks such as Customer Relationship Management system to achieve sustainable profitability as well as overcome serious competition for survival. In many business areas, CRM system advanced a great deal in a matter of continuous compensating the defect and overall integration. However, pharmaceutical companies in Korea were slow to accept them for usesince they still have a tendency of holding fast to traditional way of sales and marketing based on individual networks of sales representatives. In the circumstance, this article tried to empirically address current status of CRM system as well as the effects of the system on the performance of pharmaceutical companies by applying BSC method's four perspectives, from financial, customer, learning and growth and internal process. Survey by e-mail and post to employers and employees who were working in pharma firms were undergone for the purpose. Total 113 cases among collected 140 ones were used for the statistical analysis by SPSS ver. 15 package. Reliability, Factor analysis, regression were done. This study revealed that CRM system had a significant effect on improving financial and non-financial performance of pharmaceutical companies as expected. Proposed regression model fits well and among them, CRM marketing information system shed the light on substantial impact on companies' outcome given profitability, growth and investment. Useful analytical information by CRM marketing information system appears to enable pharmaceutical firms to set up effective marketing and sales strategies, these result in favorable financial performance by enhancing values for stakeholderseventually, not to mention short-term profit and/or mid-term potential to growth. CRM system depicted its influence on not only financial performance, but also non-financial fruit of pharmaceutical companies. Further analysis for each component showed that CRM marketing information system were able to demonstrate statistically significant effect on the performance like the result of financial outcome. CRM system is believed to provide the companies with efficient way of customers managing by valuable standardized business process prompt coping with specific customers' needs. It consequently induces customer satisfaction and retentionto improve performance for long period. That is, there is a virtuous circle for creating value as the cornerstone for sustainable growth. However, the research failed to put forward to evidence to support hypothesis regarding favorable influence of CRM sales representative's records assessment system and CRM customer analysis system on the management performance. The analysis is regarded to reflect the lack of understanding of sales people and respondents between actual work duties and far-sighted goal in strategic analysis framework. Ordinary salesmen seem to dedicate short-term goal for the purpose of meeting sales target, receiving incentive bonus in a manner-of-fact style, as such, they tend to avail themselves of personal network and sales and promotional expense rather than CRM system. The study finding proposed a link between CRM information system and performance. It empirically indicated that pharmaceutical companies had been implementing CRM system as an effective strategic business framework in order for more balanced achievements based on the grounded understanding of both CRM system and integrated performance. It suggests a positive impact of supportive CRM system on firm performance, especially for pharmaceutical industry through the initial empirical evidence. Also, it brings out unmet needs for more practical system design, improvement of employees' awareness, increase of system utilization in the field. On the basis of the insight from this exploratory study, confirmatory research by more appropriate measurement tool and increased sample size should be further examined.

Generation of Transgenic Rice without Antibiotic Selection Marker through Agrobacterium-mediated Co-transformation System (아그로박테리움 동시 형질전환 시스템을 통한 항생제 선발 마커가 없는 형질전환벼의 생산)

  • Park, Soo-Kwon;Kwon, Tack-Min;Lee, Jong-Hee;Shin, Dong-Jin;Hwang, Woon-Ha;Song, You-Chun;Cho, Jun-Hyun;Nam, Min-Hee;Jeon, Seung-Ho;Lee, Sang-Yeol;Park, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.1152-1158
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    • 2012
  • Development of transgenic plant increasing crop yield or disease resistance is good way to solve the world food shortage. However, the persistence of marker genes in crops leads to serious public concerns about the safety of transgenic crops. In the present paper, we developed marker-free transgenic rice inserted high molecular-weight glutenin subunit (HMW-GS) gene ($D{\times}5$) from the Korean wheat cultivar 'Jokyeong' using Agrobacterium-mediated co-transformation method. Two expression cassettes comprised of separate DNA fragments containing only the $D{\times}5$ and hygromycin resistance (HPTII) genes were introduced separately into Agrobacterium tumefaciens EHA105 strain for co-infection. Each EHA105 strain harboring $D{\times}5$ or HPTII was infected into rice calli at a 3: 1 ratio of EHA105 with $D{\times}5$ gene and EHA105 with HPTII gene expressing cassette. Then, among 66 hygromycin-resistant transformants, we obtained two transgenic lines inserted with both the $D{\times}5$ and HPTII genes into the rice genome. We reconfirmed integration of the $D{\times}5$ and HPTII genes into the rice genome by Southern blot analysis. Wheat $D{\times}5$ transcripts in $T_1$ rice seeds were examined with semi-quantitative RT-PCR. Finally, the marker-free plants containing only the $D{\times}5$ gene were successfully screened at the $T_1$ generation. These results show that a co-infection system with two expression cassettes could be an efficient strategy to generate marker-free transgenic rice plants.

An Integrated Model based on Genetic Algorithms for Implementing Cost-Effective Intelligent Intrusion Detection Systems (비용효율적 지능형 침입탐지시스템 구현을 위한 유전자 알고리즘 기반 통합 모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Kim, Ji-Hun;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.125-141
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    • 2012
  • These days, the malicious attacks and hacks on the networked systems are dramatically increasing, and the patterns of them are changing rapidly. Consequently, it becomes more important to appropriately handle these malicious attacks and hacks, and there exist sufficient interests and demand in effective network security systems just like intrusion detection systems. Intrusion detection systems are the network security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. Conventional intrusion detection systems have generally been designed using the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. However, they cannot handle new or unknown patterns of the network attacks, although they perform very well under the normal situation. As a result, recent studies on intrusion detection systems use artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. For a long time, researchers have adopted and tested various kinds of artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, decision trees, and support vector machines to detect intrusions on the network. However, most of them have just applied these techniques singularly, even though combining the techniques may lead to better detection. With this reason, we propose a new integrated model for intrusion detection. Our model is designed to combine prediction results of four different binary classification models-logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and support vector machines (SVM), which may be complementary to each other. As a tool for finding optimal combining weights, genetic algorithms (GA) are used. Our proposed model is designed to be built in two steps. At the first step, the optimal integration model whose prediction error (i.e. erroneous classification rate) is the least is generated. After that, in the second step, it explores the optimal classification threshold for determining intrusions, which minimizes the total misclassification cost. To calculate the total misclassification cost of intrusion detection system, we need to understand its asymmetric error cost scheme. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, total misclassification cost is more affected by FNE rather than FPE. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 10,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. Also, we compared the results from our model with the results from single techniques to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell R4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on GA outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that the proposed model outperformed all the other comparative models in the total misclassification cost perspective. Consequently, it is expected that our study may contribute to build cost-effective intelligent intrusion detection systems.

Development of Marker-free Transgenic Rice for Increasing Bread-making Quality using Wheat High Molecular Weight Glutenin Subunits (HMW-GS) Gene (밀 고분자 글루테닌 유전자를 이용하여 빵 가공적성 증진을 위한 마커 프리 형질전환 벼의 개발)

  • Park, Soo-Kwon;Shin, DongJin;Hwang, Woon-Ha;Oh, Se-Yun;Cho, Jun-Hyun;Han, Sang-Ik;Nam, Min-Hee;Park, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.23 no.11
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    • pp.1317-1324
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    • 2013
  • High-molecular weight glutenin subunits (HMW-GS) have been shown to play a crucial role in determining the processing properties of the wheat grain. We have produced marker-free transgenic rice plants containing a wheat Glu-1Bx7 gene encoding the HMG-GS from the Korean wheat cultivar 'Jokyeong' using the Agrobacterium-mediated co-transformation method. The Glu-1Bx7-own promoter was inserted into a binary vector for seed-specific expression of the Glu-1Bx7 gene. Two expression cassettes comprised of separate DNA fragments containing only Glu-1Bx7 and hygromycin phosphotransferase II (HPTII) resistance genes were introduced separately to the Agrobacterium tumefaciens EHA105 strain for co-infection. Each EHA105 strain harboring Glu-1Bx7 or HPTII was infected to rice calli at a 3:1 ratio of Glu-1Bx7 and HPTII, respectively. Then, among 216 hygromycin-resistant $T_0$ plants, we obtained 24 transgenic lines with both Glu-1Bx7 and HPTII genes inserted into the rice genome. We reconfirmed integration of the Glu-1Bx7 gene into the rice genome by Southern blot analysis. Transcripts and proteins of the wheat Glu-1Bx7 were stably expressed in the rice $T_1$ seeds. Finally, the marker-free plants harboring only the Glu-1Bx7 gene were successfully screened at the $T_1$ generation.

The Mediating Role of Perceived Risk in the Relationships Between Enduring Product Involvement and Trust Expectation (지속적 제품관여도와 소비자 요구신뢰수준 간의 영향관계: 인지된 위험의 매개 역할에 대한 실증분석을 중심으로)

  • Hong, Ilyoo B.;Kim, Taeha;Cha, Hoon S.
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.103-128
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    • 2013
  • When a consumer needs a product or service and multiple sellers are available online, the process of selecting a seller to buy online from is complex since the process involves many behavioral dimensions that have to be taken into account. As a part of this selection process, consumers may set minimum trust expectation that can be used to screen out less trustworthy sellers. In the previous research, the level of consumers' trust expectation has been anchored on two important factors: product involvement and perceived risk. Product involvement refers to the extent to which a consumer perceives a specific product important. Thus, the higher product involvement may result in the higher trust expectation in sellers. On the other hand, other related studies found that when consumers perceived a higher level of risk (e.g., credit card fraud risk), they set higher trust expectation as well. While abundant research exists addressing the relationship between product involvement and perceived risk, little attention has been paid to the integrative view of the link between the two constructs and their impacts on the trust expectation. The present paper is a step toward filling this research gap. The purpose of this paper is to understand the process by which a consumer chooses an online merchant by examining the relationships among product involvement, perceived risk, trust expectation, and intention to buy from an e-tailer. We specifically focus on the mediating role of perceived risk in the relationships between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. That is, we question whether product involvement affects the trust expectation directly without mediation or indirectly mediated by perceived risk. The research model with four hypotheses was initially tested using data gathered from 635 respondents through an online survey method. The structural equation modeling technique with partial least square was used to validate the instrument and the proposed model. The results showed that three out of the four hypotheses formulated were supported. First, we found that the intention to buy from a digital storefront is positively and significantly influenced by the trust expectation, providing support for H4 (trust expectation ${\rightarrow}$ purchase intention). Second, perceived risk was found to be a strong predictor of trust expectation, supporting H2 as well (perceived risk ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Third, we did not find any evidence of direct influence of product involvement, which caused H3 to be rejected (product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ trust expectation). Finally, we found significant positive relationship between product involvement and perceived risk (H1: product involvement ${\rightarrow}$ perceived risk), which suggests that the possibility of complete mediation of perceived risk in the relationship between enduring product involvement and the trust expectation. As a result, we conducted an additional test for the mediation effect by comparing the original model with the revised model without the mediator variable of perceived risk. Indeed, we found that there exists a strong influence of product involvement on the trust expectation (by intentionally eliminating the variable of perceived risk) that was suppressed (i.e., mediated) by the perceived risk in the original model. The Sobel test statistically confirmed the complete mediation effect. Results of this study offer the following key findings. First, enduring product involvement is positively related to perceived risk, implying that the higher a consumer is enduringly involved with a given product, the greater risk he or she is likely to perceive with regards to the online purchase of the product. Second, perceived risk is positively related to trust expectation. A consumer with great risk perceptions concerning the online purchase is likely to buy from a highly trustworthy online merchant, thereby mitigating potential risks. Finally, product involvement was found to have no direct influence on trust expectation, but the relationship between the two constructs was indirect and mediated by the perceived risk. This is perhaps an important theoretical integration of two separate streams of literature on product involvement and perceived risk. The present research also provides useful implications for practitioners as well as academicians. First, one implication for practicing managers in online retail stores is that they should invest in reducing the perceived risk of consumers in order to lower down the trust expectation and thus increasing the consumer's intention to purchase products or services. Second, an academic implication is that perceived risk mediates the relationship between enduring product involvement and trust expectation. Further research is needed to elaborate the theoretical relationships among the constructs under consideration.

A reevaluation of the castles and palaces of Goryeo Gangdo (江都) using GIS (고려 강도(江都)의 성곽과 궁궐 재고찰)

  • KANG, Dongseok
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.174-191
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    • 2021
  • Gangdo (江都), a reproduction of Gaegyeong, was the capital of Goryeo for 39 years. However, due to the urgent wartime situation of the Mongol invasion and the geographical features of Ganghwa Island, the castle system and palace layout were somewhat different from those of Gaegyeong. Gangdo's castle can be understood as a triple castle system consisting of outer castle, middle castle, and inner castle. First, the outer castle was the first to be completed, and it was built at the forefront to prevent the Mongol army from invading in the first place. It is presumed that the section was between Huamdon and Hwadodon in the outer castle during the Joseon Dynasty. The middle castle can be seen as the present 'Middle Castle', a castle built of earth on the outskirts of the Ganghwa-mountain Castle. Considering the sophistication and robustness of the construction method confirmed in the archaeological research, this castle is thought to have been built under a meticulous plan. In other words, as the capital city, it was completed 'at last' as recorded in the Koryo History, after a long 18-year construction process to protect palaces, government offices, and private houses. The inner castle was a castle with the character of a palace. This corresponds to the Old Castle of Ganghwabu (江華府) during the Joseon Dynasty, and it almost coincided with the scale of the composition of Gaegyeong's palace castle. It was a complex functional space, featuring the integration of the palace and the imperial castle, where the main government offices and ancillary facilities, including the palace, were located. Based on the documentary record that these palaces were similar to Gaegyeong's palace, the palace map was overlapped with that of Gaegyeong. The central axis of the building from Seungpyeongmun (昇平門) to Seongyeongjeon (宣慶殿) coincided with Kim Sangyongsunjeol Monument in Ganghwa- Goryeo Palace. Therefore, it seems that the palace of Gangdo had the same basic structure as that of Gaegyeong. However, the inner palace and annexed buildings must have been arranged in consideration of the topographical conditions of Ganghwa, and this is estimated to be the Gunggol area in Gwancheong-ri.

A Study on the Faculty Evaluation Model with Considering the Characteristics of Education-Based Colleges (전문대학의 특성을 고려한 교수업적평가 모델 연구)

  • Hwang, Il-Kyu;Kim, Kyeong-Sook;Kwon, O-Young;Ahn, Tae-Won;Park, Young-Tae
    • Journal of vocational education research
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.23-49
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    • 2011
  • Faculty performance evaluation system has been settled down as an uncomfortable but unavoidable system, and it is one of the most important factors to grow the college competitiveness up. In this study, we selected and surveyed faculty evaluation models of several universities and colleges in Korea, and analyzed by comparing each evaluation areas of educational achievement, college-industry collaboration, research, and service. We also identified the properties of the current faculty evaluation models of the junior colleges, and derived several problems from these models such as an imitation of four-year university model, a disorders of job evaluation with respect to the attributes of classified jobs, a large variation of individual item weights, and an insufficient reflection of major characteristics. Based on these surveys and analysis, an improved faculty evaluation model for the junior college is proposed in this study. This model proposed four basic areas-educational achievement, college-industry collaboration, research, and service by considering the importance of the college-industry collaboration in the junior college-as well as the team evaluation area. Weights of the SCI-class paper was selected as a criterion for the arrangement of objective comparison of each evaluation items. We showed the integration method of several different evaluation model with respect to the attributes of classified jobs of each faculties, and evaluation plan of variational characteristics according to the majors of individuals in this model. Finally, we introduced an area fail and rating system to operate efficiently the proposed faculty evaluation model.

Development of a Probabilistic Model for the Estimation of Yearly Workable Wave Condition Period for Offshore Operations - Centering on the Sea off the Ulsan Harbor (해상작업 가능기간 산정을 위한 확률모형 개발 - 울산항 전면 해역을 중심으로)

  • Choi, Se Ho;Cho, Yong Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2019
  • In this study, a probabilistic model for the estimation of yearly workable wave condition period for offshore operations is developed. In doing so, we first hindcast the significant wave heights and peak periods off the Ulsan every hour from 2003.1.1 to 2017.12.31 based on the meteorological data by JMA (Japan Meterological Agency) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and SWAN. Then, we proceed to derive the long term significant wave height distribution from the simulated time series using a least square method. It was shown that the agreements are more remarkable in the distribution in line with the Modified Glukhovskiy Distribution than in the three parameters Weibull distribution which has been preferred in the literature. In an effort to develop a more comprehensive probabilistic model for the estimation of yearly workable wave condition period for offshore operations, wave height distribution over the 15 years with individual waves occurring within the unit simulation period (1 hour) being fully taken into account is also derived based on the Borgman Convolution Integral. It is shown that the coefficients of the Modified Glukhovskiy distribution are $A_p=15.92$, $H_p=4.374m$, ${\kappa}_p=1.824$, and the yearly workable wave condition period for offshore work is estimated to be 319 days when a threshold wave height for offshore work is $H_S=1.5m$. In search of a way to validate the probabilistic model derived in this study, we also carry out the wave by wave analysis of the entire time series of numerically simulated significant wave heights over the 15 years to collect every duration periods of waves the height of which are surpassing the threshold height which has been reported to be $H_S=1.5m$ in the field practice in South Korea. It turns out that the average duration period is 45.5 days from 2003 to 2017, which is very close to 46 days from the probabilistic model derived in this study.