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Statistical Calibration and Validation of Mathematical Model to Predict Motion of Paper Helicopter (종이 헬리콥터 낙하해석모델의 통계적 교정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Gil Young;Yoo, Sung Bum;Kim, Dong Young;Kim, Dong Seong;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.8
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2015
  • Mathematical models are actively used to reduce the experimental expenses required to understand physical phenomena. However, they are different from real phenomena because of assumptions or uncertain parameters. In this study, we present a calibration and validation method using a paper helicopter and statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty. The data from the experiment using three nominally identical paper helicopters consist of different groups, and are used to calibrate the drag coefficient, which is an unknown input parameter in both analytical models. We predict the predicted fall time data using probability distributions. We validate the analysis models by comparing the predicted distribution and the experimental data distribution. Moreover, we quantify the uncertainty using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, we compare the manufacturing error and experimental error obtained from the fall-time data using Analysis of Variance. As a result, all of the paper helicopters are treated as one identical model.

Estimation and Assessment of Bivariate Joint Drought Index based on Copula Functions (Copula 함수 기반의 이변량 결합가뭄지수 산정 및 평가)

  • So, Jae Min;Sohn, Kyung Hwan;Bae, Deg Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.2
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    • pp.171-182
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the utilization of bivariate joint drought index in South Korea. In order to develop the bivariate joint drought index, in this study, Clayton copula was used to estimate the joint distribution function and the calibration method was employed for parameter estimation. Precipitation and soil moisture data were selected as input data of bivariate joint drought index for period of 1977~2012. The time series analysis, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, spatial analysis were used to evaluate the bivariate joint drought index with SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SSI (Standardized Soil moisture Index). As a result, SPI performed better for drought onset and SSI for drought demise. On the other hand the bivariate joint drought index captured both drought onset and demise very well. The ROC score of bivariate joint drought index was higher than that of SPI and SSI, and it also reflected the local drought situations. The bivariate joint drought index overcomes the limitations of existing drought indices and is useful for drought analysis.

Hydrogeological characteristics of the LILW disposal site (처분부지의 수리지질 특성)

  • Kim, Kyung-Su;Kim, Chun-Soo;Bae, Dae-Seok;Ji, Sung-Hoon;Yoon, Si-Tae
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2008
  • Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company(KHNP) conducted site investigations for a low and intermediate-level nuclear waste repository in the Gyeong Ju site. The site characterization work constitutes a description of the site, its regional setting and the current state of the geosphere and biosphere. The main objectives of hydogeological investigation aimed to understand the hydrogeological setting and conditions of the site, and to provide the input parameters for safety evaluation. The hydogeological characterization of the site was performed from the results of surface based investigations, i.e geological mapping and analysis, drilling works and hydraulic testing, and geophysical survey and interpretation. The hydro-structural model based on the hydrogeological characterization consists of one-Hydraulic Soil Domain, three-Hydraulic Rock Domains and five-Hydraulic Conductor Domains. The hydrogeological framework and the hydraulic values provided for each hydraulic unit over a relevant scale were used as the baseline for the conceptualization and interpretation of flow modeling. The current hydrogeological characteristics based on the surface based investigation include some uncertainties resulted from the basic assumption of investigation methods and field data. Therefore, the reassessment of hydrostructure model and hydraulic properties based on the field data obtained during the construction is necessitated for a final hydrogeological characterization.

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Phosphorus Cycle in a Deep Reservoir in Asian Monsoon Are3 (Lake Soyang, Korea) and the Modeling with a 2-D Hydrodynamic Water Quality Model [CE-QUAL-W2] (아시아 몬순지역의 대형댐(소양호)에서의 인순환과 2차원모델의 적용)

  • Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kim, Bom-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.37 no.2 s.107
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    • pp.205-212
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    • 2004
  • Phosphorus cycle was studied in a deep stratified reservoir in summer monsoon area (Lake Soyang, Korea) by surveying phosphorus input from the watershed and the movement of phosphorus within the reservoir. And the spatial and temporal distribution of phosphorus was modeled with a 2-dimensional water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2), Phosphorus loading was calculated by measuring TP in the main inflowing river (the Soyang River) accounting for 90% of watershed discharge. TP of the Soyang River showed a large daily variation with the flow rate. High phosphorus loading occurred during a few episodic storm runoff laden with suspended sediments and phosphorus. Because storm runoff water on rainy days have lower temperature, it plunges into a depth of same temperature (usually below 20m depth), forming an intermediate turbidity layer with a thickness of 20 ${\sim}$ 30 m. Because of stable thermal stratification in summer the intermediate layer water of high phosphorus content was discharged from the dam through a mid-depth outlet without diffusing into epilimnion. The movement of runoff water within the reservoir, and the subsequent distribution of phosphorus were well simulated by the water quality model showing a good accuracy. The major parameter for the calibration of phosphorus cycle was a settling velocity of detritus, which was calibrated to be 0.75 m ${\cdot}$ $day^{-1}$. It is concluded that the model can be a good simulator of limnological phenomena in reservoirs of summer monsoon area.

Drought Forecasting Using the Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Network Model (다층 퍼셉트론 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 가뭄예측)

  • Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Jong-Suk;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Jang-Choon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1249-1263
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    • 2013
  • In order to minimize the damages caused by long-term drought, appropriate drought management plans of the basin should be established with the drought forecasting technology. Further, in order to build reasonable adaptive measurement for future drought, the duration and severity of drought must be predicted quantitatively in advance. Thus, this study, attempts to forecast drought in Korea by using an Artificial Neural Network Model, and drought index, which are the representative statistical approach most frequently used for hydrological time series forecasting. SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) for major weather stations in Korea, estimated using observed historical precipitation, was used as input variables to the MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) Neural Network model. Data set from 1976 to 2000 was selected as the training period for the parameter calibration and data from 2001 to 2010 was set as the validation period for the drought forecast. The optimal model for drought forecast determined by training process was applied to drought forecast using SPI (3), SPI (6) and SPI (12) over different forecasting lead time (1 to 6 months). Drought forecast with SPI (3) shows good result only in case of 1 month forecast lead time, SPI (6) shows good accordance with observed data for 1-3 months forecast lead time and SPI (12) shows relatively good results in case of up to 1~5 months forecast lead time. The analysis of this study shows that SPI (3) can be used for only 1-month short-term drought forecast. SPI (6) and SPI (12) have advantage over long-term drought forecast for 3~5 months lead time.

Parameterization and Application of Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) for Integrating the Eco-hydrological Processes in the Gwangneung Headwater Catchment (광릉 원두부 유역 생태수문과정의 통합을 위한 지역 생태수문 모사 시스템(RHESSys)의 모수화와 적용)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Kang, Sin-Kyu;Lee, Bo-Ra;Kim, Kyong-Ha;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2007
  • Despite the close linkage in changes between the ecological and hydrological processes in forest ecosystems, an integrative approach has not been incorporated successfully. In this study, based on the vegetation and hydrologic data of the Gwangneung headwater catchment with the Geographic Information System, we attempted such an integrated approach by employing the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). To accomplish this, we have (1) constructed the input data for RHESSys, (2) developed an integrated calibration system that enables to consider both ecological and hydrological processes simultaneously, and (3) performed sensitivity analysis to estimate the optimum parameters. Our sensitivity analyses on six soil parameters that affect streamflow patterns and peak flow show that the decay parameter of horizontal saturated hydraulic conductivity $(s_1)$ and porosity decay by depth (PD) had the highest sensitivity. The optimization of these two parameters to estimate the optimum streamflow variation resulted in a prediction accuracy of 0.75 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSec). These results provide an important basis for future evaluation and mapping of the watershed-scale soil moisture and evapotranspiration in forest ecosystems of Korea.

The Vector Control with Compensating Unit Angle for the Robust Low Speed Control of Induction Motor (유도전동기의 강건한 저속 제어를 위한 단위각 보상 벡터 제어)

  • 원영진;박진홍
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics T
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    • v.35T no.1
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    • pp.90-98
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    • 1998
  • This paper is to describe the improved vector control which can control the induction motor robustly in low speed. When the induction motor is drived with low speed, below 10 percent of the rated speed, an algorithm which can compensate the error of unit vector angle generated by the harmonics is proposed. Another algorithm which can be tuned to the rotor time constant so that nay be robust to the rotor parameter change in low speed and transient state was proposed. The ripple of flux and torque was reduced by the proposed vector control and then the stable output characteristics was obtained in low speed. When the input and output is sinusoidal, the proposed vector control, the direct vector control and the indirect vector control were analyzed and compared in the low speed characteristics. And each control characteristics is compared and analyzed in state of containing harmonics. The estimation and tunning performance of rotor time constant is confirmed with simulation. The whole control system is implemented by real hardware and experimented to compare the proposed vector control with the direct vector control. As a result of the experiment with two control methods in low speed, the torque ripple of the proposed vector control is improved by 45 percent than the direct vector control. And it is confirmed that the flux current ripple is reduced in 0.2 p.u. and torque current ripple is reduced in 0.6 p.u. It is confirmed that the rotor time constant by the estimation and the tunning algorithm is tunned by the real rotor time constant. Finally, it was confirmed that the validity and robustness for the proposed vector control in low speed existed.

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Application of QUAL2E Model for Water Quality Management in the Keum River(I) -Estimation of Model input Parameter and Autochthonous BOD- (금강수계의 수질관리를 위한 QUAL2E 모델의 적용(I) -모델입력인자 산정 및 자생BOD 평가-)

  • 김종구;이지연
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.119-127
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    • 2001
  • The Keum river is one of the important river in Korea and has a drainage area of 9,873$\textrm{km}^2$. The Keum river is deepening pollution state due to development of the lower city and construction of a industrial complex. The water quality of the Keum river come to eutrophication state and belong to III grade of water quality standard. The concentration BOD in river is affected by the organic loading from a tributary and the algae biomass that largely happen to under eutrophication state. In the eutrophic water mass such as the Keum river, the autochthonous BOD was very important part for making a decision of water quality management, because it was accounted for majority of the total BOD. The purpose of this study was to survey the chatacteristics of water quality in summer and to estimate reaction coefficient. Also, we studied to correlationship between chlorophyll a and BOD(COD) for estimation of the autochthonous BOD. The correlationship between chlorophyll a and BOD(COD) were obtained through the culture experiment of phytoplankton in the laboratory. The results of this study may be summarized as follows ; The characteristics of water quality in summer were belong to III~IV grade of water quality standard as BOD and nutritive condition is very high. The BOD, ammonia nitrogen and phosphate loadings in Miho stream which inflowing untreated sewage from Chungju city was occupied with 64.07%, 26.36%, 46.08%, respectively. Maximum nutrient uptake (Vmax) was 0.4400$\mu$M/hr as substrate of ammonia nitrogen, 0.1652$\mu$M/hr as substrate of phosphate. Maximum specific growth rate ($\mu$max) was 1.2525$hr^{-1}$ as substrate of ammonia nitrogen, 1.5177$hr^{-1}$ as substrate of phosphate. The correlation coefficient between chlorophyll a and BOD by the culture experiment were found to be 0.911~0.935 and 0.942~0.947 in the case adding nutrient and no adding nutrient, respectively. The correlation coefficient between chlorophyll a and COD through the culture experiment were found to be 0.918~0.977 and 0.880~0.931 in the case adding nutrient and no adding nutrient, respectively. The autochthonous BOD(COD) was estimated to the relationship between BOD(COD) and chlorophyll a. The regression equation were found to be autochthonous BOD=(0.045~0.073)${\times}chlorophyll$ a and autochthonous $COD=(0.137~0.182){\times}chlorophyll$ a.

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Development of Improvement Effect Prediction System of C.G.S Method based on Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 기반으로 한 C.G.S 공법의 개량효과 예측시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Jeonghoon;Hong, Jongouk;Byun, Yoseph;Jung, Euiyoup;Seo, Seokhyun;Chun, Byungsik
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.14 no.9
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2013
  • In this study installation diameter, interval, area replacement ratio and ground hardness of applicable ground in C.G.S method should be mastered through surrounding ground by conducting modeling. Optimum artificial neural network was selected through the study of the parameter of artificial neural network and prediction model was developed by the relationship with numerical analysis and artificial neural network. As this result, C.G.S pile settlement and ground settlement were found to be equal in terms of diameter, interval, area replacement ratio and ground hardness, presented in a single curve, which means that the behavior pattern of applied ground in C.G.S method was presented as some form, and based on such a result, learning the artificial neural network for 3D behavior was found to be possible. As the study results of artificial neural network internal factor, when using the number of neural in hidden layer 10, momentum constant 0.2 and learning rate 0.2, relationship between input and output was expressed properly. As a result of evaluating the ground behavior of C.G.S method which was applied to using such optimum structure of artificial neural network model, is that determination coefficient in case of C.G.S pile settlement was 0.8737, in case of ground settlement was 0.7339 and in case of ground heaving was 0.7212, sufficient reliability was known.

A Study on Efficient Cell Queueing and Scheduling Algorithms for Multimedia Support in ATM Switches (ATM 교환기에서 멀티미디어 트래픽 지원을 위한 효율적인 셀 큐잉 및 스케줄링 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jin-Su;Lee, Sung-Won;Kim, Young-Beom
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.5 no.1 s.8
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    • pp.100-110
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, we investigated several buffer management schemes for the design of shared-memory type ATM switches, which can enhance the utilization of switch resources and can support quality-of-service (QoS) functionalities. Our results show that dynamic threshold (DT) scheme demonstrate a moderate degree of robustness close to pushout(PO) scheme, which is known to be impractical in the perspective of hardware implementation, under various traffic conditions such as traffic loads, burstyness of incoming traffic, and load non-uniformity across output ports. Next, we considered buffer management strategies to support QoS functions, which utilize parameter values obtained via connection admission control (CAC) procedures to set tile threshold values. Through simulations, we showed that the buffer management schemes adopted behave well in the sense that they can protect regulated traffic from unregulated cell traffic in allocating buffer space. In particular, it was observed that dynamic partitioning is superior in terms of QoS support than virtual partitioning.

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