Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Estimation and Assessment of Bivariate Joint Drought Index based on Copula Functions

Copula 함수 기반의 이변량 결합가뭄지수 산정 및 평가

  • So, Jae Min (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Sohn, Kyung Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Bae, Deg Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.)
  • 소재민 (세종대학교 물자원연구소, 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 손경환 (세종대학교 물자원연구소, 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 물자원연구소, 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2013.11.14
  • Accepted : 2014.01.07
  • Published : 2014.02.28
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate the utilization of bivariate joint drought index in South Korea. In order to develop the bivariate joint drought index, in this study, Clayton copula was used to estimate the joint distribution function and the calibration method was employed for parameter estimation. Precipitation and soil moisture data were selected as input data of bivariate joint drought index for period of 1977~2012. The time series analysis, ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis, spatial analysis were used to evaluate the bivariate joint drought index with SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and SSI (Standardized Soil moisture Index). As a result, SPI performed better for drought onset and SSI for drought demise. On the other hand the bivariate joint drought index captured both drought onset and demise very well. The ROC score of bivariate joint drought index was higher than that of SPI and SSI, and it also reflected the local drought situations. The bivariate joint drought index overcomes the limitations of existing drought indices and is useful for drought analysis.

본 연구에서는 가뭄해석을 위한 이변량 결합가뭄지수를 산정하고 국내 활용성을 평가하였다. 이변량 결합가뭄지수 산정을 위해 결합분포함수는 Clayton copula, 매개변수 추정은 교정방법을 이용하였으며, 입력변수로는 1977~2012년 동안의 강수량 및 토양수분량 자료를 선정하였다. 우리나라에 대한 이변량 결합가뭄지수를 산정한 후, 기존 가뭄지수인 SPI 및 SSI와 같이 시계열 분석, 지역별 분석 및 ROC 분석을 수행하여 활용성을 평가하였다. 분석결과 SPI는 가뭄의 시작, SSI는 가뭄의 해갈을 적절히 고려하였으며, 이변량 결합가뭄지수는 SPI 및 SSI의 거동 특성을 적절히 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 이변량 결합가뭄지수가 SPI 및 SSI에 비해 ROC score가 높게 산정되었으며, 지역별 분석에서도 지역의 가뭄 상황을 적절히 재현하여 활용성이 우수하게 나타났다. 이변량 결합가뭄지수는 기존 가뭄지수의 해석적 한계를 보완하였다는 측면에서 국내 가뭄해석의 활용성이 높다고 판단된다.

Keywords

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