• Title/Summary/Keyword: Incomplete decision-making

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Optimistic vs Pessimistic Use of Incomplete Weights in Multiple Criteria Decision Making

  • Park, K. Sam;Lee, Pyoungsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.9-11
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    • 2015
  • This note is concerned with the use of incomplete weights in multiple criteria decision making. In an earlier study, an optimistic use of incomplete weights is developed to prioritize decision alternatives, which applies the most favorable set of weights to the alternative to be evaluated. In this note, we develop a method for a pessimistic use, thereby applying the least favorable weight set to the evaluated alternative. This development makes possible a more detailed prioritization of competing alternatives, and hence enhances decision-making powers.

Incomplete Decisions on Reward-Based Crowdfunding Platforms: Exploring Motivations from Temporal and Social Perspectives

  • KwangWook Gang;Hoon S. Cha;Ilyoo B. Hong
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2024
  • This study explores incomplete decision-making dynamics on reward-based crowdfunding platforms, focusing on temporal and social factors influencing backers' decisions. Utilizing the temporal aspect (i.e., pledging campaign phase) and social aspect (i.e., current pledged amount ratio) as stimuli within the stimulus-organism-response framework, our findings reveal that nearly 50.9% of respondents change their initial decisions, highlighting widespread incomplete information processing. Backers are more prone to altering decisions under heightened time pressure and display herding behaviors. Furthermore, backers exhibit an increased likelihood of changing decisions under heightened time pressure, coupled with a greater chance that the pledged goal amount will not be achieved. The study discusses theoretical and practical implications.

Dominance, Potential Optimality, and Strict Preference Information in Multiple Criteria Decision Making

  • Park, Kyung-Sam;Shin, Dong-Eun
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.63-84
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    • 2011
  • The ordinary multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) approach requires two types of input, alternative values and criterion weights, and employs two schemes of alternative prioritization, dominance and potential optimality. This paper allows for incomplete information on both types of input and gives rise to the dominance relationships and potential optimality of alternatives. Unlike the earlier studies, we emphasize that incomplete information frequently takes the form of strict inequalities, such as strict orders and strict bounds, rather than weak inequalities. Then the issues of rising importance include: (1) The standard mathematical programming approach to prioritize alternatives cannot be used directly, because the feasible region for the permissible decision parameters becomes an open set. (2) We show that the earlier methods replacing the strict inequalities with weak ones, by employing a small positive number or zeroes, which closes the feasible set, may cause a serious problem and yield unacceptable prioritization results. Therefore, we address these important issues and develop a useful and simple method, without selecting any small value for the strict preference information. Given strict information on both types of decision parameters, we first construct a nonlinear program, transform it into a linear programming equivalent, and finally solve it via a two-stage method. An application is also demonstrated herein.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making Procedure under Incompletely Identified Preference Information

  • Ahn, Byeong-Seok;Kim, Jae-Kyeong;Kim, Soung-Hie
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 1998
  • The paper deals with interactive multiple criteria decision making procedure when decision maker (DM) specifies her or his preference in incomplete ways. Usually DM is willing or able to provide only incomplete information, because of time pressure and lack of knowledge or data. Under incomplete information on utility and attribute weight, the pairwise dominance checks result in strict or weak dominance values. Considering only strict dominance values sometimes fails to Prioritize alternatives because of fuzziness of preference information. Further there exists some information loss useful if used, otherwise. In this paper, we consider the outranking concept which implies the willingness of DM's taking some risk under the least favorable situation because she has enough reasons to admit the results. By comparing the magnitude of net preference degree of alternatives which is defined by difference between outrankings and outranked degree of each alternative, we can prioritize alternatives.

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Multiattribute Stochastic Statistical Dominance in Decision Making with Incomplete Information (불완전한 정보하의 의사결정하에서의 아중요인 추계적-통계적 우세법칙)

  • 이대주
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 1993
  • In multiattribute decision making a decision maker (DM) can choose the best alternative if his/her multiattribute utility function and the joint probability distribution of outcomes are exactly known. This paper develops multiattribute stochastic-statistical dominance rules which can be applied to the situation when neither of them is known exactly, that is, when the DM cannot calculate the expected utility for each alternative. First, the notion of relative risk aversion is used dominance rules are developed to screen out dominated alternatives so that hi/she choose the best one among the remaining nondominated alternatives.

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Stochastic Dominance and Distributional Inequality (추계적 우세법칙과 분포의 비상등성)

  • Lee, Dae-Joo
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.151-169
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    • 1993
  • In this research, we proposed "coefficient of inequality" as a measure of distributional inequality for an alternative, which is defined as the area between the diagonal line from 0 to 1 and the Lorenz curve of the given alternative. Next, we showed theoretical relationship between stochastic dominance and the coefficient of inequality as a means to determine the preferred alternative when decision is made with incomplete information about decision maker's utility function. Then, two experiments were performed to test subject‘s attitude toward risk. The results of the experiments support the idea that when a decision maker is risk averse or risk prone, he/she can use the coefficient of inequality as a decision rule to choose the preferred alternative instead of using stochastic dominance. Thus, according to decision maker’s attitude toward risk, the decision rule proposed here can be used as a valuable aid in decision making under uncertainty with incomplete information.

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Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Applying a Novel Correlation Coefficient of Interval-Valued Neutrosophic Hesitant Fuzzy Sets

  • Liu, Chunfang
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.1215-1224
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    • 2018
  • Interval-valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set (IVNHFS) is an extension of neutrosophic set (NS) and hesitant fuzzy set (HFS), each element of which has truth membership hesitant function, indeterminacy membership hesitant function and falsity membership hesitant function and the values of these functions lie in several possible closed intervals in the real unit interval [0,1]. In contrast with NS and HFS, IVNHFS can be more flexibly used to deal with uncertain, incomplete, indeterminate, inconsistent and hesitant information. In this study, I propose the novel correlation coefficient of IVNHFSs and my paper discusses its properties. Then, based on the novel correlation coefficient, I develop an approach to deal with multi-attribute decision-making problems within the framework of IVNHFS. In the end, a practical example is used to show that the approach is reasonable and effective in dealing with decision-making problems.

On the Bayesian Fecision Making Model of 2-Person Coordination Game (2인 조정게임의 베이지안 의사결정모형)

  • 김정훈;정민용
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.113-143
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    • 1997
  • Most of the conflict problems between 2 persons can be represented as a bi-matrix game, because player's utilities, in general, are non-zero sum and change according to the progress of game. In the bi-matrix game the equilibrium point set which satisfies the Pareto optimality can be a good bargaining or coordination solution. Under the condition of incomplete information about the risk attitudes of the players, the bargaining or coordination solution depends on additional elements, namely, the players' methods of making inferences when they reach a node in the extensive form of the game that is off the equilibrium path. So the investigation about the players' inference type and its effects on the solution is essential. In addition to that, the effect of an individual's aversion to risk on various solutions in conflict problems, as expressed in his (her) utility function, must be considered. Those kinds of incomplete information make decision maker Bayesian, since it is often impossible to get correct information for building a decision making model. In Baysian point of view, this paper represents an analytic frame for guessing and learning opponent's attitude to risk for getting better reward. As an example for that analytic frame. 2 persons'bi-matrix game is considered. This example explains that a bi-matrix game can be transformed into a kind of matrix game through the players' implicitly cooperative attitude and the need of arbitration.

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Real Option Decision Tree Models for R&D Project Investment (R&D 프로젝트 투자 의사결정을 위한 실물옵션 의사결정나무 모델)

  • Choi, Gyung-Hyun;Cho, Dae-Myeong;Joung, Young-Ki
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.408-419
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    • 2011
  • R&D is a foundation for new business chance and productivity improvement leading to enormous expense and a long-term multi-step process. During the R&D process, decision-makers are confused due to the various future uncertainties that influence economic and technical success of the R&D projects. For these reasons, several decision-making models for R&D project investment have been suggested; they are based on traditional methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and Real Option Analysis (ROA) or some fusion forms of the traditional methods. However, almost of the models have constraints in practical use owing to limits on application, procedural complexity and incomplete reflection of the uncertainties. In this study, to make the constraints minimized, we propose a new model named Real Option Decision Tree Model which is a conceptual combination form of ROA and DTA. With this model, it is possible for the decision-makers to simulate the project value applying the uncertainties onto the decision making nodes.