• Title/Summary/Keyword: Improvement of prediction performance

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Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting using Neuro-Fuzzy Models (뉴로-퍼지 모델을 이용한 단기 전력 수요 예측시스템)

  • Park, Yeong-Jin;Sim, Hyeon-Jeong;Wang, Bo-Hyeon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.107-117
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    • 2000
  • This paper proposes a systematic method to develop short-term electrical load forecasting systems using neuro-fuzzy models. The primary goal of the proposed method is to improve the performance of the prediction model in terms of accuracy and reliability. For this, the proposed method explores the advantages of the structure learning of the neuro-fuzzy model. The proposed load forecasting system first builds an initial structure off-line for each hour of four day types and then stores the resultant initial structures in the initial structure bank. Whenever a prediction needs to be made, the proposed system initializes the neuro-fuzzy model with the appropriate initial structure stored and trains the initialized model. In order to demonstrate the viability of the proposed method, we develop an one hour ahead load forecasting system by using the real load data collected during 1993 and 1994 at KEPCO. Simulation results reveal that the prediction system developed in this paper can achieve a remarkable improvement on both accuracy and reliability compared with the prediction systems based on multilayer perceptrons, radial basis function networks, and neuro-fuzzy models without the structure learning.

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Measurement and Analysis of Power Dissipation of Value Speculation in Superscalar Processors (슈퍼스칼라 프로세서에서 값 예측을 이용한 모험적 실행의 전력소모 측정 및 분석)

  • 이상정;이명근;신화정
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.30 no.12
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    • pp.724-735
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    • 2003
  • In recent high-performance superscalar processors, the result value of an instruction is predicted to improve instruction-level parallelism by breaking data dependencies. Using those predicted values, instructions are speculatively executed and substantial performance can be gained. It, however, requires additional power consumption due to the frequent access and update of the value prediction table. In this paper, first, the trade-off between the performance improvement and the increased power consumption for value prediction is measured and analyzed. And, in order to reduce additional power consumption without performance loss, the technique of controlling speculative execution with confidence counter and predicting useful instructions is developed. Also, in order to prove the validity, a tool is developed that can simulate processor behavior at cycle-level and measure total energy consumption and power consumption per cycle.

Performance Improvements of SCAM Climate Model using LAPACK BLAS Library (SCAM 기상모델의 성능향상을 위한 LAPACK BLAS 라이브러리의 활용)

  • Dae-Yeong Shin;Ye-Rin Cho;Sung-Wook Chung
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2023
  • With the development of supercomputing technology and hardware technology, numerical computation methods are also being advanced. Accordingly, improved weather prediction becomes possible. In this paper, we propose to apply the LAPACK(Linear Algebra PACKage) BLAS(Basic Linear Algebra Subprograms) library to the linear algebraic numerical computation part within the source code to improve the performance of the cumulative parametric code, Unicon(A Unified Convection Scheme), which is included in SCAM(Single-Columns Atmospheric Model, simplified version of CESM(Community Earth System Model)) and performs standby operations. In order to analyze this, an overall execution structure diagram of SCAM was presented and a test was conducted in the relevant execution environment. Compared to the existing source code, the SCOPY function achieved 0.4053% performance improvement, the DSCAL function 0.7812%, and the DDOT function 0.0469%, and all of them showed a 0.8537% performance improvement. This means that the LAPACK BLAS application method, a library for high-density linear algebra operations proposed in this paper, can improve performance without additional hardware intervention in the same CPU environment.

A Study on the Performance Improvement of GMDH Algorithm by Feedback (피드백에 의한 GMDH 알고리듬 성능 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Yeon-Chan
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.559-564
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    • 2010
  • The GMDH(Group Method of Data Handling) algorithm can be used to predict the complex nonlinear systems. The traditional GMDH algorithm produces the prdicted output of the system model in the output layer through the input layer and the intermediate layers as the prescribed process. The outputs of each layer are produced only by the outputs of the former layer. However, in the traditional GMDH algorithm, though the optimal structure of each layer is derived, the overall structure may not be derived optimally. To overcome this problem, GMDH prediction model which has the overall optimal structure is constructed by feeding back the error between the predicted output and the real output. This can make the prediction more precise. The capability improvement of the proposed algorithm compared to the traditional algorithm is verified through computer simulation.

SPEECH ENHANCEMENT BY FREQUENCY-WEIGHTED BLOCK LMS ALGORITHM

  • Cho, D.H.
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1985.10a
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 1985
  • In this paper, enhancement of speech corrupted by additive white or colored noise is stuided. The nuconstrained frequency-domain block least-mean-square (UFBLMS) adaptation algorithm and its frequency-weighted version are newly applied to speech enhancement. For enhancement of speech degraded by white noise, the performance of the UFBLMS algorithm is superior to the spectral subtraction method or Wiener filtering technique by more than 3 dB in segmented frequency-weighted signal-to-noise ratio(FWSNERSEG) when SNR of speech is in the range of 0 to 10 dB. As for enhancement of noisy speech corrupted by colored noise, the UFBLMS algorithm is superior to that of the spectral subtraction method by about 3 to 5 dB in FWSNRSEG. Also, it yields better performance by about 2 dB in FWSNR and FWSNRSEG than that of time-domain least-mean-square (TLMS) adaptive prediction filter(APF). In view of the computational complexity and performance improvement in speech quality and intelligibility, the frequency-weighted UFBLMS algorithm appears to yield the best performance among various algorithms in enhancing noisy speech corrupted by white or colored noise.

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Performance Analysis of a Dolphin-tail Rudder

  • Min K. S.;Chung K. N.;Kim Y. L
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.137-139
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    • 2003
  • As a part of numerical and experimental research works for the prediction and improvement of ship's maneuvering performance, a study on the performance analysis of two different rudders has been carried out. While the planform shape and the aspect ratio of the rudders have been fixed, section shape has been changed. Conventional type of HMRI NP section and special type of dolphin-tail section have been employed. Performances of the rudders have been investigated by using CFD and compared with experimental data obtained in a wind tunnel. A commercial CFD program has been used to solve the RANS equations. Two-equation k-ro model has been applied to close the governing equations. Block-structured grids are used in the numerical calculation. Based upon the calculation results, the rudder with dolphin-tail section has shown a possibility of significantly improving rudder performance if utilized as the section of ship rudders.

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Thermal Performance Simulation of Cogeneration Power Plants (열병합 발전플랜트의 열성능 해석)

  • Lee, Dong-Won;O, Myeong-Do;Lee, Jae-Heon;Jo, Yeong-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.451-460
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    • 2001
  • An analysis program for the thermal performance prediction of steam turbine cogeneration systems with multi-extraction, reheat and regeneration has been developed on the basis of the thermodynamic heat balance method. Heat balance analyses were performed for a commercial cogeneration power plant using the program. Its appropriateness was verified by comparing its heat balance results with those of other commercial programs and those provided by the original system designer. Further parametric analyses were carried out and performance improvement measures in designing the plant were suggested.

Effect of input variable characteristics on the performance of an ensemble machine learning model for algal bloom prediction (앙상블 머신러닝 모형을 이용한 하천 녹조발생 예측모형의 입력변수 특성에 따른 성능 영향)

  • Kang, Byeong-Koo;Park, Jungsu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.417-424
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    • 2021
  • Algal bloom is an ongoing issue in the management of freshwater systems for drinking water supply, and the chlorophyll-a concentration is commonly used to represent the status of algal bloom. Thus, the prediction of chlorophyll-a concentration is essential for the proper management of water quality. However, the chlorophyll-a concentration is affected by various water quality and environmental factors, so the prediction of its concentration is not an easy task. In recent years, many advanced machine learning algorithms have increasingly been used for the development of surrogate models to prediction the chlorophyll-a concentration in freshwater systems such as rivers or reservoirs. This study used a light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM), a gradient boosting decision tree algorithm, to develop an ensemble machine learning model to predict chlorophyll-a concentration. The field water quality data observed at Daecheong Lake, obtained from the real-time water information system in Korea, were used for the development of the model. The data include temperature, pH, electric conductivity, dissolved oxygen, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll-a. First, a LightGBM model was developed to predict the chlorophyll-a concentration by using the other seven items as independent input variables. Second, the time-lagged values of all the input variables were added as input variables to understand the effect of time lag of input variables on model performance. The time lag (i) ranges from 1 to 50 days. The model performance was evaluated using three indices, root mean squared error-observation standard deviation ration (RSR), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The model showed the best performance by adding a dataset with a one-day time lag (i=1) where RSR, NSE, and MAE were 0.359, 0.871 and 1.510, respectively. The improvement of model performance was observed when a dataset with a time lag up of about 15 days (i=15) was added.

Validation of the Aerodynamic drag model in the multi-phase flow analysis

  • Morisaki, Masao;Shimada, Toru;Hanzawa, Masahisa;Kat, Takashi;Yoshikawa, Takashi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.03a
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    • pp.365-368
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    • 2004
  • The multi-phase flow analysis in a solid rocket motor is very important when performing the performance of a motor, and prediction of nozzle ablation. However, only in consideration of regular power, it has analyzed as power which a metal particle receives from a flow until now. We conduct analysis and an experiment about the virtual mass clause which will influence at the place where acceleration is big. We aim at the improvement in accuracy of multi-phase flow analysis from the result.

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Performance improvement and Realtime implementation in CELP Coder (CELP 보코더의 성능 개선 및 실시간 구현)

  • 정창경
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1994.06c
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, we researched abut CELP speech coding algorithm using efficlent pseudo-stochastic block codes, adaptive-codebook and improved fixed-gain codebook. The pseudo-stochastic block codes refer to stochastically populated block codes in which the adjacent codewords in an innovation codebook are non-independent. The adaptive-codebook was made with previous prediction speech data by storage-shift register. This CELP coding algorithm enables the coding of toll quality speech at bit rates from 4.8kbits/s to 9.6 kbits/s. This algorithm was realized TMS320C30 microprocessor in realtime.

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