• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.241-254
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• 2011

Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

• The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.87-94
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• 2005

Purpose : Heavy metal use when producing the block from the workshop. At this time, production of heavy metal dust and fume gives risk in human. This like heavy metal to improve seriousness through measurement and analysis. And by the quest in solution is purpose of this thesis. Materials and Methods : Organization is Inductively Coupled Plasma Atomic Emission Spectrometer, and the object is Deajeon city 4 workshops in university hospital radiation oncology (Bismuth, Lead, Tin and cadmium). Method is the ppb the pumping it does at unit, comparison analysis. And the Calculation heavy metal standard level in air through heavy metal standard level in body and blood, so Heavy metal temporary standard set. Results : Subterranean existence room air quality the administration laws appointed Lead and Cadmium's exposure recommend that it is $3{\mu}g/m^3\;and\;2{\mu}g/m^3$. And Bismuth and Tin decides $7{\mu}g/m^3\;and\;6{\mu}g/m^3$ through standard level in air heavy metal and standard level in body and blood. Heavy metal measurement level of workshops in 4 university hospital Daejeon city compares with work existence and nonexistence. On work nonexistence almost measurement level is below the recommend level. But work existence case express high level. Also consequently in composition ratio of the block is continuous with the detection ratio. Conclusion : Worker's heavy metal contamination imbrued serious for solution founds basic part. In hospital may operation on local air exhauster and periodical efficiency check, protector offer, et al. And worker have a correct understanding part of heavy metal contamination, and have continuous interest, health control. Finally, learned society sphere administer to establishment standard level and periodical measurement. And it founds basic solution plan of periodical special health checkup.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.22
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• pp.15-35
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• 2010

A larceny means stealing others' properties, as one of crime types most closely connected with common people. Along with fraud, it is the mostly common property crime; in particular, the largest number of people are exposed to a burglary. This study aims to find the schemes to utilize private guards according to the characteristics of burglary. To do so, a questionnaire survey was conducted into an actual condition of official statistics of burglary and into the criminals of burglary, with a view to understanding the behavioral characteristics of burglary and suggesting defense mechanisms to prevent the crime. Burglary is not just a major crime to be dealt with by public guards like the police but also one to be handled increasingly more by private guards. It is why this study intends to identify how to utilize private guards in preventing the crime. Investigations were made into 208 burglars, who were inmates of 10 correctional institutions (prisons or detention houses) across the country. It is found that only about 24% of burglars committed the crime through rational choice, about 60.7% were feared of their arrest at the time of their crime, and a very high percentage (69.9%) of them were assured of their successful crime. Burglaries usually happened at night, mostly in a summer day when everybody goes away from home for vacation. Primarily, the crimes took place in a private house of urban residential quarters. What burglars considered mostly for target selection includes 'profitability,' followed by 'surveillance' and 'risk.' Most (42%) of them committed the crime for the first time ever. Generally, they were not inclined to commit the crime while under the influence of alcohol or drug, which might prevent them from making reasonable decisions. 73.9% of the criminals said that they committed the crime singly without any accomplices.

• Journal of dental hygiene science
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.13-20
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• 2007

This study is aimed at providing basic data for measures to prevent dental hygienists who are highly exposed to hepatitis-B virus due to their characteristic working conditions from being infected of it. In order to determine their perception and the extent of their exposure to the risk of infection with hepatitis-B virus, a survey was conducted with questionnaires distributed to 354 dental hygienists who are working at dental offices in Seoul. Gyeongi and Jeolla provincial areas. From the survey, following conclusions could be drawn: 1. Sixty three point seven to 100 percent of them are found to have been vaccinated against hepatitis-B virus as is generally expected from their working environment. 2. Their general characters are found to be statistically significant in terms of vaccinating point of time among those who have been vaccinated. Most respondents are either vaccinated one year or 5 years ago. The completion of 3 requested vaccinations lies in the level of 64.3%~100% depending on the general characters. By age, the best result comes from the age group of 25~29, followed by the groups older than 30 and 20-24 in order (p < 0.05). Formation of antibody belongs to the level of 45%~100% generally. But statistically significant of them is the extremely unhealthy state with 100%, followed by normal, generally healthy, very healthy and not healthy in sequence (p < 0.05). 3. In terms of family's clinical history, it is known that the older (p < 0.01), the more unhealthy (p < 0.01) and the married (p < 0.01), the more possibility of having anamnesis of hepatitis-B virus infection. 4. The level of knowledge about Hepatitis-B virus is shown to be in the extent of 4.39~5.01 out of maximum 8 points in general terms. 5. It is revealed that there are high chances for dental hygienists to get spattered with body matters of patients like blood or sputum on their faces in general characters (87.%~100%). 6. A high rate (75%~100%) of respondents has experienced being shot by needles. The older(p < 0.05) and the longer(p < 0.05) their career, the higher the rate becomes.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.322-331
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• 2017

District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.106-118
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• 2013

In this paper, we analyzed the Cognition of irradiated food and its relation with self-efficacy. The most important variables described behaviors based on health choices compared with the choice to choose irradiated food items. According to the survey, 33.1% of respondents said that the reason why irradiated food is considered to be a health risk is because "radiation is dangerous". 27.9% of respondents answered that "eating irradiated food is like eating a radioactive substance", 21.1% said radiated food is comparable to a "genetic variation in food" while 10.1% said "food goes bad during the irradiation process". On this basis, it is reasonable to conclude that respondents have a misunderstanding of irradiated food without reference to the general theory of irradiated knowledge. In this respect, it would be helpful to provide education showing that irradiated food is not related to eating harmful or genetically modified food to help high school students create informed opinions of irradiated food. In terms of relevance with health-specific self-efficacy, experience of acquiring information about irradiated food was marked at r=0.148 (p<0.01), experience of purchasing irradiated food was marked at r=0.077 (p<0.05), experience of eating irradiated food was marked at r=0.113 (p<0.01) while knowledge of irradiated food, attitude towards irradiated food and behavior was marked at r=0.103 (p<0.01), r=0.076 (p<0.05) and r=0.105 (p<0.01) respectively. This shows that self-efficacy is high when one has experience of acquiring information about irradiated food, purchasing or eating irradiated food resulting in a high level of knowledge, attitude and behavior. Education which serves to improve the level of self-efficacy needs to be provided along with an educational program which will increase the public's understanding of irradiated food. It is expected that if this education which increases the level of self-efficacy is provided together with correct information of irradiated food, behavior to choose and eat irradiated food will also improve.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.349-355
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• 2014

This study was performed to evaluate influences of tunnel covering materials and seeding dates on the growth and productivity of water spinach (Ipomoea aquatic F.) cultured early in unheated greenhouse. During tunnel installation period, from March 5 to April 30 and from October 11 to November 10, air and soil temperature in tunnel covered with polyethylene film (PEF) had risen $2.0-2.4^{\circ}C$ and $0.9-1.0^{\circ}C$, respectively, compared to those in non-tunnel (NT). Air and soil temperature in tunnel with illite non-fabric (INF) also had risen $1.6-1.8^{\circ}C$ and $0.6-0.8^{\circ}C$, respectively. Especially, it showed greater effects of the rise at low temperature time zones of the day. In plots of seeding on March 15 in tunnel covered with PEF or INF, temperature during emergence period, emergence days and rate were similar to plot seeding on April 5 in NT. There were two more harvesting in plots of seeding on March 5 or March 15 in tunnel, and increasing of total yield by 22.5-25.7% compared to plot of seeding on April 5 in NT. But there was observed no significant differences between PEF and INF. Whereas PEF was necessary to be removed at midday sometimes because it had risk of high temperature injury, INF was not necessary. All above suggest that it was suitable to sow seed on the middle of March in tunnel covered with INF, for early culture of water spinach in unheated greenhouse.

• The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2012

The Baegdusan volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in northeastern Asia, and the 10th century eruption was the most voluminous eruption in the world in recent 2,000 years. During the period from 2002 to 2005, volcanic earthquakes and abnormal surface distortions by suspected subsurface magma intrusion beneath the volcano were observed in the Baegdusan area. Seismic activity has gradually increased with earthquake swarms during 2002-2003 and hundreds of seismic event in a day, especially annual peak of 2,100 in 2003. Then the number of seismic activity has declined since 2006 to the background level in 1999-2001. According to the typical frequency of volcanic earthquakes in the Baegdusan volcano, the frequency distribution of typical volcanic earthquakes between 2002 and 2005 indicates that all the main frequency of the earthquakes basically falls down less than 5 Hz and 5-10 Hz. These events are all the VT-B and LP events caused by the shallow localized fracture and intrusion of magma. The horizontal displacement measurement by GPS during the period from 2000 to 2007 of the Baegdusan stratovolcano area indicates that an inflated process has been centered at the summit caldera since 2002. The displacement between 2002 and 2003 reached at a maximum value of 4 cm. After 2003, the deformation rate of the volcano continued to decrease with unusual variation during the period from 2006 to 2007. After 2003 the vertical displacement uplift rate falls down gradually but still keeps in an uplift trend in northern slope. It is generally believed that when $^3He/^4He(R)$ in a gas sample from a hot spring exceeds $^3He/^4He(R)$ in the atmosphere, it can be concluded that mantle-source. And temperatures of hot springs are rising steadily to $83^{\circ}C$. It is unrest signals at the Baegdusan, which is potentially active. The Baegdusan volcano is now in unrest status, there is eruption threat in the near future. Intensified monitoring and emergency response plan for volcanic risk mitigation are urgent for the volcano.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.441-448
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• 2015

This study aims to suggest a reasonable signal operation method for right-turn traffic management. It was found that the right-turn vehicle supplementary signal is currently operated without clear regulations or criteria. It was also analyzed that right-turn supplementary signals are used without consistency, there is a risk of traffic accidents due to the discordance between supplementary signals and traffic signals of forward vehicles, there is a lack of basis for prohibition of a right turn when right-turn vehicle's supplementary signal is red and the flashing red signal is used in a different sense from the law. In order to see the effect of the installed right-turn vehicle supplementary signals on traffic signal violation, a field investigation was conducted. As the result, there was a high proportion of signal violation on the approach lane with right-turn supplementary signals and this means that right-turn supplementary signals hardly influenced the reduction in proportion of signal violation during a right turn. Additionally, a survey was carried out to see if there were differences in driver's interpretation of traffic signals depending on the installation of right-turn supplementary signals. As the result of the survey, there were no differences in interpretation of traffic signals depending on the installation of right-turn supplementary signals or the types of right-turn supplementary signals. A right turn when the signal was red did not lead to serious traffic accidents, so it is thought that there should be a careful consideration of a total ban on a right turn when the signal is red, in order to prevent driver's confusion due to the change of the signal system. Unless there is a disturbance to cars and pedestrians after a temporary stop when the signal is red, there is a need to specify that vehicles must stop temporarily in the Road Traffic Act to facilitate a right turn. What this study finally suggested is to use tri-colored arrow signals for right-turn car supplementary signals to convey a signal to a driver clearly.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.153-195
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• 2010

The recent global financial crisis has been the outcome of, among other things, the mismatch between institutions and the reality of the market in the current global financial system. The International financial institutions (IFIs) that were designed more than 60 years ago can no longer effectively meet the challenges posed by the current global economy. While the global financial market has become integrated like a single market, there is no international lender of last resort or global regulatory body. There also has been a rapid shift in the weight of economic power. The share of the Group of 7 (G7) countries in global gross domestic product (GDP) fell and the share of emerging market economies increased rapidly. Therefore, the tasks facing us today are: (i) to reform the IFIs -mandate, resources, management, and governance structure; (ii) to reform the system such as the international monetary system (IMS), and regulatory framework of the global financial system; and (iii) to reform global economic governance. The main focus of this paper will be the IMS reform and the role of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit meetings. The current IMS problems can be summarized as follows. First, the demand for foreign reserve accumulation has been increasing despite the movement from fixed exchange rate regimes to floating rate regimes some 40 years ago. Second, this increasing demand for foreign reserves has been concentrated in US dollar assets, especially public securities. Third, as the IMS relies too heavily on the supply of currency issued by a center country (the US), it gives an exorbitant privilege to this country, which can issue Treasury bills at the lowest possible interest rate in the international capital market. Fourth, as a related problem, the global financial system depends too heavily on the center country's ability to maintain the stability of the value of its currency and strength of its own financial system. Fifth, international capital flows have been distorted in the current IMS, from EMEs and developing countries where the productivity of capital investment is higher, to advanced economies, especially the US, where the return to capital investment is lower. Given these problems, there have been various proposals to reform the current IMS. They can be grouped into two: demand-side and supply-side reform. The key in the former is how to reduce the widespread strong demand for foreign reserve holdings among EMEs. There have been several proposals to reduce the self-insurance motivation. They include third-party insurance and the expansion of the opportunity to borrow from a global and regional reserve pool, or access to global lender of last resort (or something similar). However, the first option would be too costly. That leads us to the second option - building a stronger globalfinancial safety net. Discussions on supply-side reform of the IMS focus on how to diversify the supply of international reserve currency. The proposals include moving to a multiple currency system; increased allocation and wider use of special drawing rights (SDR); and creating a new global reserve currency. A key question is whether diversification should be encouraged among suitable existing currencies, or if it should be sought more with global reserve assets, acting as a complement or even substitute to existing ones. Each proposal has its pros and cons; they also face trade-offs between desirability and political feasibility. The transition would require close collaboration among the major players. This should include efforts at the least to strengthen policy coordination and collaboration among the major economies, and to reform the IMF to make it a more effective institution for bilateral and multilateral surveillance and as an international lender of last resort. The success on both fronts depends heavily on global economic governance reform and the role of the G20. The challenge is how to make the G20 effective. Without institutional innovations within the G20, there is a high risk that its summits will follow the path of previous summit meetings, such as G7/G8.