• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2021.06a
• /
• pp.331-331
• /
• 2021

수문학적 가뭄의 판단은 유출량과 저수지 수위 등을 비롯한 다양한 수문자료를 활용하여 가능하다. 가뭄판단을 위한 유량 자료로는 수위관측소 관측 유량, 유출모형을 통한 모의 유량 자료가 주로 활용된다. 최근에는 관측 유량 기반의 수문학적 가뭄 판단은 인위적인 용수 배분이 고려된 것이기 때문에 인간이 만든 수문학적 가뭄(Human-modified hydrological drought, 인위적 수문학적 가뭄)으로, 모의 유량 기반의 수문학적 가뭄 판단은 자연적인 수문과정이 반영된 자연유량을 활용한 것이기 때문에 기후영향 수문학적 가뭄(Climate-induced hydrological drought)이란 정의된다. 우리나라의 경우, 홍수기에 저류된 저수량을 비홍수기 동안, 특히 용수사용량이 많은 봄철 농번기에 활용하는 것이 수자원 관리의 기본방향이다. 따라서 우리가 직면하는 수문학적 가뭄은 대부분 댐 및 저류지에서의 용수 사용량 조절에 따라 영향을 받기 때문에, 기상인자가 직접적인 원인으로 작용되는 가뭄과는 다르다. 본 연구에서는 관측 유량과 자연유량 자료를 활용하여 위에서 정의된 두 종류의 수문학적 가뭄에 대하여 비교하고, 실제 발생되었던 가뭄 피해 정보와의 일치정도를 검토하였다. 가뭄의 판단은 각각의 가뭄지수를 표준유출량지수(Standardized Runoff Index, SRI)에 적용하며, 수정 Mann-Kendall 검증으로 두 지수들의 경향성을 비교하였다. 장기간의 관측 자료를 보유하고 있는 한강유역 일부지역에 적용한 결과 두 종류의 가뭄지수 모두 뚜렷한 경향성은 없으며, 댐 상류지역에서의 두 종류의 가뭄특성은 유사하게 나왔다. 하지만, 댐 하류지역에서는 인위적 수문학적 가뭄이 기후영향 수문학적 가뭄보다 발생빈도는 적으나, 지속기간은 약 한달 정도 짧고, 가뭄심도는 약 5~20 % 정도 증가하는 강도가 센가뭄이 발생되는 경향이 있음이 확인되었다. 이는 인위적인 용수 관리로, 약한 규모의 가뭄은 감소되고 있으나 큰 규모의 가뭄은 그 영향이 더 큰 것으로 예상할 수 있다. 해당 결과를 바탕으로 효율적인 용수 관리에 통하여 약한 가뭄 뿐만 아니라 대형 가뭄을 대비하기 위한 지속적인 노력이 필요함을 확인 할 수 있었다. 장기간의 관측 유량의 자료의 한계로 많은 지역에는 적용이 어려우나 해당 연구를 통하여 국내에서도 수문학적 가뭄의 개념을 재정립하고, 용수 공급 개념을 기반으로 하는 수문학적 가뭄 지수의 개발에 활용 가능할 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.93-109
• /
• 2007

Gamma distributions are some of the most popular models for hydrological processes. In this paper, a very flexible family which contains the gamma distribution as a particular case is introduced. Evidence of flexibility is shown by examining the shape of its pdf and the associated hazard rate function. A comprehensive treatment of the mathematical properties is provided by deriving expressions for the nth moment, moment generating function, characteristic function, Renyi entropy and the asymptotic distribution of the extreme order statistics. Estimation and simulation issues are also considered. Finally, a detailed application to drought data from the State of Nebraska is illustrated.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2009.05a
• /
• pp.1452-1456
• /
• 2009

Water related disasters frequently occur in these days due to global warming and climatic change. This give us that the trend of mal-distribution of available water resources would be increased and the environment of water resources management getting much worse. Therefore the establishment of the effective strategy should be required for water resources management urgently. In this paper the hydrological characteristics and corresponding social phenomena of the drought events in Geum river basin are inspected in depth. The word, social phenomena, means not the quantitative damage but the qualitative social influences and its main characters are analyzed by the collections of the mass media articles. This study will be helpful in prognosticating the future drought occurrence and the establishment of counterplan to them.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.113-121
• /
• 2013

The objective of this study is to develop and evaluate the system to produce the real-time ensemble drought prediction data. Ensemble drought prediction consists of 3 processes (meteorological outlook using the multi-initial conditions, hydrological analysis and drought index calculation) therefore, more processing time and data is required than that of single member. For ensemble drought prediction, data process time is optimized and hardware of existing system is upgraded. Ensemble drought data is estimated for year 2012 and to evaluate the accuracy of drought prediction data by using ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) analysis. We obtained 5 ensembles as optimal number and predicted drought condition for every tenth day i.e. 5th, 15th and 25th of each month. The drought indices used are SPI (Standard Precipitation Index), SRI (Standard Runoff Index), SSI (Standard Soil moisture Index). Drought conditions were determined based on results obtained for each ensemble member. Overall the results showed higher accuracy using ensemble members as compared to single. The ROC score of SRI and SSI showed significant improvement in drought period however SPI was higher in the demise period. The proposed ensemble drought prediction system can be contributed to drought forecasting techniques in Korea.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.14-26
• /
• 2021

Increase of climate variability due to climate change has paved the way for regional drought monitoring and outlook. In particular, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, is suffering from frequent and periodic drought damage as the frequency and magnitude of drought are increasing due to climate change. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze drought characteristics for sub-districts based on water district and calculate the basic low-flow considering climate change. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought outlook were carried out for 8 sub-districts considering the water supply system and regional characteristics of Gimcheon-si according to various climate change scenarios. In addition, the low-flow frequency analysis for the near future was also performed using the total amount of runoff and the low-flow. The overall results indicated that, meteorological droughts were found to be dangerous in the S0(1974~2019) period and hydrological droughts would be dangerous in the S2(2041~2070) period for RCP 4.5 and in S3(2071~2099) period for RCP 8.5. The results of low-flow frequency analysis indicated that future runoff would increase but drought magnitude and frequency would increase further. The results and methodology may be useful for preparing local governments' drought measures and design standards for local water resources facilities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.50 no.12
• /
• pp.889-896
• /
• 2017

In the present study, an integrated SWAT-MODFLOW model was implemented to analyze the method of supplying groundwater abstraction contributing to Musimcheon stream. Various simulations of supply of groundwater to streamflow with current and maximum groundwater abstraction have been explored for 5 years (2011-2015). In 2015, when the severe drought happened, the monthly discharge change rate due to groundwater supply was ranged from 23% in current abstraction to 68% in maximum abstraction. In terms of annual groundwater recharge, these quantities could be applicable recharges ranged from 75 mm (6.2% of annual mean precipitation) to 290 mm (24% of annual mean precipitation) which could be stable annual supply. Since surface water is vulnerable to drought, the water supply using groundwater could be an effective alternative for stream deficiency.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.63 no.5
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2021

Soil moisture plays a critical role in hydrological processes, land-atmosphere interactions and climate variability. It can limit vegetation growth as well as infiltration of rainfall and therefore very important for agriculture sector and food protection. Recently, due to the increased damage from drought caused by climate change, there is a frequent occurrence of shortage of agricultural water, making it difficult to supply and manage stable agricultural water. Efficient water management is necessary to reduce drought damage, and soil moisture management is important in case of upland crops. In this study, soil moisture was calculated based on the water balance model, and the suitability of soil moisture data was verified through the application. The regional soil moisture was calculated based on the meteorological data collected by the meteorological station, and applied the Runs theory. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture and drought impacts, and analyzed the correlation between actual drought impacts and drought damage through correlation analysis of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The soil moisture steadily decreased and increased until the rainy season, while the drought size steadily increased and decreased until the rainy season. The regional magnitude of the drought was large in Gyeonggi-do and Gyeongsang-do, and in winter, severe drought occurred in areas of Gangwon-do. As a result of comparative analysis with actual drought events, it was confirmed that there is a high correlation with SPI by each time scale drought events with a correlation coefficient.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.46 no.3
• /
• pp.287-299
• /
• 2013

The objective of this study is to derive and evaluate the drought threshold level based on hydro-meteorological data using historical drought events. After collecting the drought events during 1991 to 2009 year, the observed meteorological data and estimated hydrological component from LSM are used as input for the percentile analysis that is drought analysis data. The drought threshold level that precipitation and runoff of 3 month duration are less than 35%, soil moisture of 2 month duration is less than 35% and evapotranspiration of 3 month duration is more than 65% is derived using ROC analysis that are objective test method. ROC analysis with SPI (3) is performed to evaluate the applicability of threshold level in the domestic. As a result, it can be concluded that the derived drought threshold level show better performance to reflect the historical drought events than SPI (3) and it reasonably explain the spatial drought situation through the spatial analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2005.09b
• /
• pp.1079-1080
• /
• 2005

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
• /
• 2004.11a
• /
• pp.5-5
• /
• 2004