Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Derivation & Evaluation of Drought Threshold Level Considering Hydro-meteorological Data on South Korea

수문기상 정보에 따른 국내 가뭄판단기준 제시 및 평가

  • Bae, Deg Hyo (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Son, Kyung Hwan (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engrg., Sejong Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Heon Ae (Climate Prediction Division, Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 물자원연구소.건설환경공학과) ;
  • 손경환 (세종대학교 토목환경공학과) ;
  • 김헌애 (기상청, 기후예측과)
  • Received : 2012.09.24
  • Accepted : 2012.11.21
  • Published : 2013.03.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to derive and evaluate the drought threshold level based on hydro-meteorological data using historical drought events. After collecting the drought events during 1991 to 2009 year, the observed meteorological data and estimated hydrological component from LSM are used as input for the percentile analysis that is drought analysis data. The drought threshold level that precipitation and runoff of 3 month duration are less than 35%, soil moisture of 2 month duration is less than 35% and evapotranspiration of 3 month duration is more than 65% is derived using ROC analysis that are objective test method. ROC analysis with SPI (3) is performed to evaluate the applicability of threshold level in the domestic. As a result, it can be concluded that the derived drought threshold level show better performance to reflect the historical drought events than SPI (3) and it reasonably explain the spatial drought situation through the spatial analysis.

본 연구의 목적은 기록된 관측가뭄자료를 이용하여 수문기상 기반의 국내 가뭄판단기준을 제시하는데 있다. 과거 1991년에서 2009년까지 기록된 가뭄사례를 수집한 후, 관측기상정보와 LSM(Land Surface Model)으로부터 생산된 수문정보를 이용하여 백분위 해석을 수행하였다. 기간별 가뭄판단기준을 도출하기 위해 객관적 가뭄평가 기법인 ROC(Relative Operating Characteristics) 분석을 이용하였다. 국내 가뭄기준은 대표적으로 강수 및 유출이 지속기간 3개월에 평년대비 35% 이하, 토양수분이 지속기간 2개월의 35% 이하 그리고 증발산량이 지속기간 3개월에 65% 이상으로 나타났다. 가뭄판단기준의 적용성 평가를 위해 SPI (3)와의 ROC 분석을 수행한 결과 SPI (3)에 비해 적용성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 가뭄판단기준에 대한 지역별 분석을 수행한 결과 공간적으로 가뭄상황을 적절히 반영하는 것을 확인하였다.

Keywords

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