• Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.221-227
• /
• 2003

The characteristics of Japanese housing stock is as follows. 1. It is predicted that population from 2010 and general household from 2015 will decrease. The aging speed in Japan is faster than several advanced nations. 2. Housing shortage has resolved from 1973. In 1998, dwelling number per household is 1.13 houses and vacant dwelling rate is 11.5 percents. 3. Dwelling level of rented dwelling is lower than owner occupied houses; for instance, floor area of the former is one third of the latter. As for a household of thirties, family type household lived in rented houses reached 60 percents, it reveals that the demand exceeds the supply. 4. Houses constructed before the new earthquake resistant standard enforced from 1981 year is the half of the whole, housing improvement is needed in the future. Future housing market is changed to practical use of housing stock. Consequently, expansion of multi-habitation used a vacant housing of city dwellers, activation of the used houses distribution, growth of dwelling reform market, and activation of the rented houses are expected.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
• /
• v.8 no.1
• /
• pp.57-69
• /
• 2020

Purpose - This study examines what are the asset market fluctuations in Europe and how each economic variable affects major variables, and explore the dynamics of housing and stock market through Greece. The variables under consideration are balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), M3, real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). We investigate the functional and causal relationships between housing and stock market. Research design, data, and methodology - Vector error correction model (VECM) is used to figure out the dynamic relationships among variables. This study also contains the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis by EViews 11.0. Results - The statistical tests show that all variables under consideration have one unit root and there is a longterm equilibrium relationship among variables for Greece. GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN can be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market, while GDP, LOAN, M3, BCA and HOUSING can bring direct effects to stock market in Greece. Conclusions - It can be judged that the policy that affects the lending policy of financial institutions may be more effective than the indirect variable such as monetary interest rate.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.59-66
• /
• 2020

This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.

• Land and Housing Review
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.27-37
• /
• 2021

This paper empirically examined the relationship between the housing market and the stock market to investigate the price and the asymmetric volatility spillover effects. The monthly housing price index and the monthly KOSPI were used for analysis. This research employed the EGARCH model. The analysis period was from January 1986 until June 2021 with periodization centered on the Asian Financial Crisis: before and after the crisis - the end of December 1997. The EGARCH model allows analysis of 'good news' and 'bad news' in understanding volatility. The price spillover effect was observed one way from the stock market to the housing market. On the contrary, the spillover effect was not found from the housing market to the stock market. The empirical evidence suggests that there are price and asymmetric volatility effects in the entire period of analysis in both housing and the stock markets. In the housing market, the negative effects of information were found pre-financial crisis while the positive effects, in other periods. However, in the stock market, the negative effects of information were found in the pre- and post-financial crisis periods. This means that the housing market is more affected by 'good news' than 'bad news' when information spreads to the markets while the stock market is more affected by 'bad news' than 'good news'. It is of significance to discover the variable returns by different information.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2012

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the supply plan of public rental housing under the Lee Myung-bak government. According to the supply plan, the government will supply public rental housings by 80,000 unit every year from 2009 to 2018, and achieve 12% as stock ratio in 2018. To evaluate the supply plan, this study analyzed housing needs of tenants in private rental housing by using the raw data of Korea Welfare Panel Survey (2008). The results are as follows: (1) It is difficult for the supply plan to meet the housing needs of tenants in private rental housing. (2) The link between supply plan and stock ratio target is weak. (3) To meet the housing needs, it is necessary to supply public rental housings by 107,000 unit every year for 10 years, and, in this case, the stock ratio will be 10% in 2018. In conclusion, this study proposed that the supply plan of public rental housing should be redesigned.

• Proceeding of Spring/Autumn Annual Conference of KHA
• /
• 2011.04a
• /
• pp.187-192
• /
• 2011

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the supply plan of public rental housing under the Lee Myung-bak government. According to the supply plan, the government will supply public rental housings by 80,000 unit every year from 2009 to 2018, and achieve 12% as stock ratio in 2018. To evaluate the supply plan, this study analyzed housing needs of tenants in private rental housing by using the raw data of Korea Welfare Panel Survey(2008). The results are as follows: (1) It is difficult for the supply plan to meet the housing needs of tenants in private rental housing. (2) The link between supply plan and stock ratio target is weak. (3) To meet the housing needs, it is necessary to supply public rental housings by 107,000 unit every year for 10 years, and, in this case, the stock ratio will be 10% in 2018. In conclusion, this study proposed that the supply plan of public rental housing should be redesigned.

• KIEAE Journal
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.87-100
• /
• 2010

The energy efficient design of the multiple stock housing is very important not only to save energy but also to increase sustainability in a whole city because the multiple stock housing type is dominated in the major residential supply markets in Korea. During the early design phase of the multiple stock housing type, the architect need convenient and accurate tools for evaluating energy consumptions based on building types rapidly. Building Information Modeling(BIM) is introduced as useful tool systems providing interoperability between 3rd dimensional modeling tools and environmental engineering analysis tools, and could reduce time and cost for unnecessary modeling works in the analysis. However, it is still hard to apply to building design practice and integrated energy simulation techniques because interoperability using industrial standard file formats such as IFC and bXML is still underdeveloped. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to perform the building energy simulations, to compare the results on typical building types in multiple stock housing based on BIM, and to clear the problems using industrial standard file formats between 3rd dimensional modeling and building energy simulation software. In addition, through comparisons with simulation results according to the typical building types such as building forms, orientations, and building stories, the interrelation ship and characteristics of BIM based building energy simulation software are analysed and evaluated.

• Korea Real Estate Review
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.21-34
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macro-finance variables on the correlation between the housing and stock markets because understanding the nature of time-varying correlations between different assets has important implications on portfolio allocation and risk management. Thus, we adopted the AG-DCC GARCH model to obtain time-varying, conditional correlations. Our sample ranged from January 2004 to November 2017. Our empirical result showed that the coefficients on asymmetric correlation were significantly positive, implying that correlations between the housing and stock markets were significantly higher when changes in the housing price and stock returns were negative. This finding suggested that the housing market has less hedging potential during a stock market downturn, when such a hedging strategy might be necessary. Based on the regression analysis, we found that the term spread had a significantly negative effect on correlations, while the credit spread had a significantly positive effect. This result could be interpreted by the risk premium effect.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
• /
• v.24 no.6
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2013

The purpose of this study is to perform an analysis on the design methods of the "UR Housing Stock Renewal Design Competition" for Hanahata No.27 Housing by the UR Renaissance Agency in Japan. The analysis is done by looking at the aspects of lifestyle, demographics, environment, and community changes. The results are as follows: 1) Since demographic changes are caused by low fertility, aging populations need the support of locally-based social welfare facilities of which the architectural aspect can be examined. 2) Changes in lifestyle, such as diversity of family composition, flexibility of work, and improvement of leisurely activities require residents to have public spaces and facilities 3) Since environmental changes caused by deteriorated housing need the conversion of awareness about housing estates as a social asset. 4) To revitalize the community, houses, public facilities, and communal outdoor spaces must be connected. The results of this study are expected to serve as clues to the future direction of sustainable conversion in Korea.