Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5804/LHIJ.2020.11.1.059

The Impact of Stock-to-Flow Price Ratio on Housing Starts  

Ji, Kyu Hyun (한양사이버대학교 디지털건축도시공학과)
Choi, Sung Ho (코리아크레딧뷰로)
Publication Information
Land and Housing Review / v.11, no.1, 2020 , pp. 59-66 More about this Journal
Abstract
This thesis investigates relationship between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in Seoul metropolitan form 2008 year to 2019 year. The paper tests the relationship through two time-series models such as a vector error correction model and Dynamic Panel regression model. The model results show evidence of positive correlation between Stock-to-Flow price and housing starts in the long run. By transforming the regional data into a panel data set and running a fixed effects model, we test the explanatory power of PBR on housing starts. The result of VECM confirms that one unit uprising PBR raises up apartment construction by 7.4%. This result supports that PBR is a major factor in choosing a start of housing construct. Base on the result of empirical model, We also suggest that the market self-regulation function of housing providers is operating in the entire metropolitan area market.
Keywords
Housing Starts; PBR; VECM;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 민인식.최필선(2012), STATA 패널 데이터 분석.
2 지규현.최성호(2010), "수도권 분양-재고주택시장의 시장효율성 분석", 부동산연구, 한국부동산 연구원, 20(2): 51-63.
3 지규현.최성호.주현태.이창무(2017), "수도권 주택건설 착공시기에 대한 생존분석", 주택연구, 한국주택학회, 25(4): 117-132.
4 Berg, L., & Berger, T.(2006), "The Q theory and the Swedish housing market-an empirical test", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 33(4): 329-344.   DOI
5 Christopher, R. C.(2006), "House price uncertainty, timing of development, and vacant land prices: Evidence for real options in Seattle", Journal of Urban Economics, 59(1): 1-31.   DOI
6 Glaeser, E., and Gyourko, J.(2018), "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(1): 3-30.   DOI
7 Jud, G. D. and Winkler, D. T. ,2003, "The Q theory of housing investment", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 27(3): 379-392.   DOI
8 Levin, E. and Pryce, G.(2009), "What Determines the Price Elasticity of House Supply? Real Interest Rate Effects and Cyclical Asymmetries", Housing Studies, 24: 713-736.   DOI
9 Pirounakis, N. G.(2013), "Real Estate Economics:A Point-to-Point Handbook", New York: Routledge.
10 Tobin, J. 1969. "A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory", Journal of money, credit and banking, 1(1): 15-29.   DOI
11 DiPasquale, D. and Wheaton, W.(1996), "Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets", Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.