• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard function

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Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis (확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안)

  • Park, So-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • Recently, damage scale of human-induced disaster is sharply increased but its occurrences and damages are so uncertain that it is hard to construct a resonable response & mitigation plan for infrastructures. Therefore, the needs for a advanced risk management technique based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory is increased. In this study, these evaluation methods were investigated and a advanced disaster risk evaluation method, which is based on the probabilistic or stochastic risk assessment theory and also is a quantitative evaluation technique, was suggested. With this method, the safety changes as the result of fire damage management for recent 40 years was analyzed. And the result was compared with that of Japan. Through the consilience of the traditional risk assessment method and this method, a stochastical estimation technique for the uncertainty of future disaster's damage could support a cost-effective information for a resonable decision making on disaster mitigation.

A Study on Proposals for Improving the Fire Protection Regulations for Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 화재방호 규제 개선 방향에 관한 연구)

  • Ma, Jin-Soo;Kwon, Kyung-Ok
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2010
  • The fire protection system of nuclear power plants shall be designed, constructed and operated, through a defense-in depth criterion to suppress the leakage of radioactivity to the outside and to allow the safety shutdown function when a fire occurs. In order to achieve these purposes, most of countries abroad operating the nuclear power plants keep up the integrated regulations, however we have two guidelines, the fire protection service act and the nuclear energy act, as mandatory requirements to apply to the fire protection systems in nuclear power plants. It has shown that USA, Canada and Japan which have long experience in operating nuclear power plants have regulations integrated technically for fire protection system of nuclear power plants. It is proposed that the things once verified the risk analysis of the fire hazard by the nuclear law in the design for fire suppression system in plants should be authorized by the fire protection service act as an exception.

Variation of Hydraulic Characteristics around a Cylindrical Bridge Pier with Circular Collar (원환 설치에 의한 원형교각 주위의 수리특성변화)

  • Jin, Byoung-Ho;Sim, Ou-Bae;Song, Jai-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.3 no.2 s.9
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    • pp.147-154
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    • 2003
  • In this study, hydraulic characteristics around bridge piers were analyzed with and without collar through a hydraulic model experiment. The analysis of stage variation in front and back side of pier showed that collar installation did not function as obstacle to the stream flow. Little variation of water level between front and back sides of pier was observed before and after collar installation(0.2cm in front side and 0.1cm in back side of pier). Also, result that analyze velocity variation in front and back side of pier, lateral velocity(u) and transverse(v) before and after collar installation exhibited no alteration in the front and back side of pier. About 16.72% and 15.83% of vertical velocities(w) were reduced for the condition of y/d=0.33 in the front side of pier and y/d=0.67 in the back side of pier, respectively. This experimental results suggest that the collar installation around pier can minimize the local scouring depth by preventing the downflow that cause the pier scour.

Improvement for Gutter Design Method in Sloping Area (비탈면 배수로 설계기술 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Dai;Kim, Jong-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2008
  • Malfunction of gutter systems in the slope area accelerate to percolate surface flow into underground and to cause the decrease of soil strength, Overflowing from gutter causes soil erosion from slope surface, secondary it is one of the main reasons to cause disaster in the hillside area. Much researches were reported and are undergoing about flood disaster in the down stream area, but rare in the upper reach(hillside). It is considered that improving function of gutter in the hillside is very important to prevent the disaster caused by rainfall. In this paper, After analyzing relationship between rainfall and disaster on the hillside in Busan, researches about having surface flow run into gutter effectively and preventing from overflowing outside of gutter on the hillside in Busan were carried out. Improved design methods of gutter are suggested to mitigate disaster in the sloping area by analysis of collected data and hydraulic model test.

Analysis of Flood Reduction Effect of Washlands based on Variation of Rollway Characteristic (월류부특성변화에 따른 천변저류지군의 홍수저감효과분석)

  • Baek, Chun-Woo;Kim, Bok-Cheon;Ahn, Tae-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.145-150
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    • 2009
  • Because it is difficult to install new large hydraulic structure, washland is considered as alternatives of hydraulic facility. As flood reduction effect of washland is dependent on flood, hydrograph, capacity of washland and spillway height, applying adequate spillway height is very important to maximize flood reduction effect of washland. In this study, effect of variation of spillway height on flood reduction effect of washlands is analyzed. The existing model developed to make decision for optimal location of washland using flood reduction effect as evaluation function and location of washland as decision variable was revised for this purpose. The spillway height of washland is added as decision variable and revised model finally give optimal location and spillway height of washland as result. The developed model has been applied to the Ansung River basin and application result was compared with that of existing model. The application result shows that developed model can give more efficient result than existing model.

Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment for the Use of Passenger Portable Electronic Devices (승객 휴대 전자기기 사용에 대한 위해요인 식별 및 리스크 평가)

  • Lim, In-Kyu;Kim, Mu-Geun;Kang, Ja-Young
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.288-294
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    • 2018
  • The entertainment system of the aircraft has changed its paradigm in the form of using passenger electronic devices instead of using a fixed monitor. This has simplified the on-board equipment while the risk of safety has increased with the electric charging of portable electronic devices. Unlike personal portable electronic devices that do not have a transmission function, the use of Wi-Fi enabled electronic devices(T-PED) is allowed and the battery is required to be charged in the cabin. In this study, we used the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System to investigate the effects of changes in wireless environment and entertainment service. Based on this, we analyzed the risks of personal electronic devices by sharing event occurrence cases caused by in-flight electronic equipment or passenger portable electronic devices(especially smart phones) from the viewpoint of aircraft safety management. This analysis includes identification of potential hazards and risk assessment, and finally the strategies for risk mitigation for safe use of portable electronic devices are suggested.

An Establishment of Database for Effective Design of Anti-Frost Heave Layer using Field Data (도로포장의 효율적 동상방지층 설계를 위한 현장 계측자료의 데이터베이스(DB) 구축)

  • Kim, Nak-Seok;Nam, Young-Kug;Cho, Gyu-Tae;Lee, Bum-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.43-47
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    • 2011
  • Korea has seasonal weathers which result in the frosting of soil in winter times, and the thawing of soil in spring. These climate characteristics result in the damaging of pavements, due to the repeated freezing and thawing of road pavements during winter and spring. In order to reduce these pavement damages, anti-frost heave layers are being specially installed, however it is being applied based on foreign researches, and therefore result in the waste of national budget. With this study, a database system was constructed for effective management and monitoring of measured temperatures and function data of 2 meters below the embankment, cut slope, and the cutting-embankment boundary, which are 15 regions picked by the frost index diagram. As the study result, an effective storage and management-purpose database was established for easy data searching and downloading for the pavement design engineers.

Work Hours and Cognitive Function: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

  • Charles, Luenda E.;Fekedulegn, Desta;Burchfiel, Cecil M.;Fujishiro, Kaori;Hazzouri, Adina Zeki Al;Fitzpatrick, Annette L.;Rapp, Stephen R.
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.178-186
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    • 2020
  • Background: Cognitive impairment is a public health burden. Our objective was to investigate associations between work hours and cognitive function. Methods: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants (n = 2,497; 50.7% men; age range 44-84 years) reported hours per week worked in all jobs in Exams 1 (2000-2002), 2 (2002-2004), 3 (2004-2005), and 5 (2010-2011). Cognitive function was assessed (Exam 5) using the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (version 2), a measure of global cognitive functioning; the Digit Symbol Coding, a measure of processing speed; and the Digit Span test, a measure of attention and working memory. We used a prospective approach and linear regression to assess associations for every 10 hours of work. Results: Among all participants, associations of hours worked with cognitive function of any type were not statistically significant. In occupation-stratified analyses (interaction p = 0.051), longer work hours were associated with poorer global cognitive function among Sales/Office and blue-collar workers, after adjustment for age, sex, physical activity, body mass index, race/ethnicity, educational level, annual income, history of heart attack, diabetes, apolipoprotein E-epsilon 4 allele (ApoE4) status, birth-place, number of years in the United States, language spoken at MESA Exam 1, and work hours at Exam 5 (β = -0.55, 95% CI = -0.99, -0.09) and (β = -0.80, -1.51, -0.09), respectively. In occupation-stratified analyses (interaction p = 0.040), we also observed an inverse association with processing speed among blue-collar workers (adjusted β = -0.80, -1.52, -0.07). Sex, race/ethnicity, and ApoE4 did not significantly modify associations between work hours and cognitive function. Conclusion: Weak inverse associations were observed between work hours and cognitive function among Sales/Office and blue-collar workers.

Assessment of Extreme Wind Risk for Window Systems in Apartment Buildings Based on Probabilistic Model (확률 모형 기반의 아파트 창호 시스템 강풍 위험도 평가)

  • Ham, Hee Jung;Yun, Woo-Seok;Choi, Seung Hun;Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ho-Jeong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.625-633
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a coupled probabilistic framework is developed to assess wind risk on apartment buildings by using the convolution of wind hazard and fragility functions. In this framework, typhoon induced extreme wind is estimated by applying the developed Monte Carlo simulation model to the climatological data of typhoons affecting Korean peninsular from 1951 to 2013. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to assess wind fragility function for 4 different damage states by comparing the probability distributions of the window system's resistance performance and wind load. Wind hazard and fragility functions are modeled by the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions based on simulated wind speeds and failure probabilities. The modeled functions are convoluted to obtain the wind risk for the different damage levels. The developed probabilistic framework clearly shows that wind risk are influenced by various important characteristics of terrain and apartment building such as location of building, exposure category, topographic condition, roof angle, height of building, etc. The risk model presented in this paper can be used as tools to predict economic loss estimation and to establish wind risk mitigation plan for the existing building inventory.

Development of a Hydrograph Triggered by Earth-Dam-Break for Compiling a Flood Hazard Map (홍수위험지도 작성을 위한 댐 붕괴 지점에서의 유량곡선 산정)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Yu, Soonyoung;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Cho, Jinwoo;Kim, Jin-Man
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2013
  • In compiling flood hazard maps for the case of dam-failure, a scenario-based numerical modeling approach is commonly used, involving the modeling of important parameters that capture peak discharge, such as breach formation and progress. In this study, an earth-dam-break model is constructed assuming an identical mechanism and hydraulic process for all dam-break processes. A focus of the analysis is estimation of the hydrograph at the outlet as a function of time. The constructed hydrograph then serves as an upper boundary condition in running the flood routing model downstream, although flood routing is not considered here. Validation was performed using the record of the Tangjishan dam-break in China. The results were satisfactory, with a coefficient of determination of 0.974, Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSC) of 0.94, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of $610m^3/sec$. The proposed model will contribute to assessments of potential flood hazards caused by dam-break.