• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.19-38
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

• Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2024

Many abnormal climate events are occurring around the world. The cause of abnormal climate is related to temperature. Factors that affect temperature include excessive emissions of carbon and greenhouse gases from a global perspective, and air circulation from a local perspective. Due to the air circulation, many abnormal climate phenomena such as abnormally high temperature and abnormally low temperature are occurring in certain areas, which can cause very serious human damage. Therefore, the problem of abnormal temperature should not be approached only as a case of climate change, but should be studied as a new category of climate crisis. In this study, we proposed a model for the classification of abnormal temperature using random forests based on various meteorological data such as longitudinal observations, yellow dust, ultraviolet radiation from 2018 to 2022 for each region in Korea. Here, the meteorological data had an imbalance problem, so the imbalance problem was solved by oversampling. As a result, we found that the variables affecting abnormal temperature are different in different regions. In particular, the central and southern regions are influenced by high pressure (Mainland China, Siberian high pressure, and North Pacific high pressure) due to their regional characteristics, so pressure-related variables had a significant impact on the classification of abnormal temperature. This suggests that a regional approach can be taken to predict abnormal temperatures from the surrounding meteorological environment. In addition, in the event of an abnormal temperature, it seems that it is possible to take preventive measures in advance according to regional characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2011

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of exchange rate and economic business activity on the passengers' demand for international transportation. The demand pattern depends upon the transport vehicles that the global passengers take. The global passengers' demand for transportation is modelled as exchange rate, industrial production and seasonal dummy variables. The seasonality is found in both water and air, but the former is far greater than the latter. All series span the period January 1990 to December 2008. The empirical results of this paper reveal that the income elasticity of sea transport is greater than that of air one, all of which are positive. The study also shows that the exchange rate has an significant impact on the demand for air transport, whereas it is insignificant in water transport. The impulse response function indicates that passengers increase steadily before peaking seven to eight months after the shocks to economic business activity and decline very slowly to its pre-shock level. The air passengers also respond negatively to the shocks in exchange rate and the impacts of exchange rate shock seem to decrease relatively slowly, while the water passengers respond positively after six months. The industrial production shocks remain above equilibrium for more than twenty four months, while the exchange rate shocks remain below equilibrium for more than twenty four months. Boosted by improved economic conditions worldwide, international tourism has recovered faster than expected from the impacts of the global financial crisis and economic recession of late 2008 and 2009. These facts suggest that the demand of global water transport has the high possibility of growing steadily and continuously.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.453-466
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• 2011

The main aim of this paper is to explore the Korean development strategy in the context of trajectories of the economic development from 1961 to 2010. The fast and high growth in the period of 1961 and 2010 resulted from the 'export-oriented industrialization' through a combination of 'mass production-mass exports' and '(relatively) high productivity-low wages' up to the late 1980s, a mixture of 'mass production-mass exports' and '(relatively) high productivity-high wages' to the late 1990s, and a combination of the reformation of public and private sectors for overcoming the Korean financial crisis and the gradual improvement of the marketization and social safety net since 2000. With respect to this model of development, the global and national modes of regulation were established. Along with the formation of endogenous forces (as the national mode of regulation), that of exogenous forces (as the global mode of regulation) are the important rules of the game at the global level, which lead and stabilize the process of accumulation by the export-led industrialization in Korea. In this respect, the establishment of global modes of regulation is led by exogenous forces such as trade regulations, exchange rates, global-Korean industrial relations, and global regulations of loans to developing countries. On the other hand, the national modes of regulation are formed by endogenous forces such as the triangular relationship of the state, capital and labor.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.341-366
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• 2013

The term, Mittelstand, has no exact english translation for the definition, but, today, Mittelstand refers to small and medium-sized enterprises(SME), mostly family-owned firms in Germany. The Mittelstand is called the backbone of the German economy because it drove the economic miracle after World War II. During the global recession and the euro zone's debt crisis in recent years, in which european businesses have faced the near-collapse of competitiveness particularly in manufacturing, the German exports are booming and exceeded exports of China in 2012. Most importantly, the Germany economic performance has been widely attributed to the strength of the Mittelstand. Many of countries, even some leading public companies are seeking to emulate the success of the Mittelstand. Investors evaluate that many of Germany's investable "hidden champions" are Mittelstand companies. The purpose of this study is to present some of answers to the following questions: Firstly, what makes the German Mittelstand so successful? Secondly, what does the success of the German Mittelstand mean for the Korean SMEs in global competitiveness? Thirdly, what Korean government has to do improve the global competitiveness of the Korean SMEs? Some discussions in this study mention the managerial implications for Korean exporting SMEs particularly in manufacturing. Several factors that account for the success of the German Mittelstand are technological excellence and the tradition of family-owned management, concentration on niche market and globalization, and institutional supports. There are some of important lessons to be learned from the German Mittelstand. If the purposes of Korean SMEs want to remain in the sustainable competitive advantage and withstand unforeseen economic turbulences in the future, they must be able to meet the followings: 1) Technology that meets the global standard or exceeding it 2) Competitiveness in price in the global market 3) Active involvement in the globalization process, utilizing various entry modes Innovative products at globally competitive price are a crucial point for Korean exporting SMEs to achieve their competitive edge over others in the target markets abroad. It is time for Korean SMEs to cultivate a core competence in manufacturing in order to position Korea as a global manufacturing hub with SMEs leading.

• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.181-188
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• 2024

Amid global geopolitical crises that are heightening tensions worldwide, the importance of national security is being reevaluated. Consequently, South Korea is gaining attention in the global defense market due to its superior technology, competitive pricing, and rapid delivery capabilities. The increasing international demand for defense materials offers opportunities for the development of the domestic defense industry and has the potential to lead to long-term defense strategies and an expansion of exports. In particular, the development of future advanced weapons systems and the expansion of defense exports are likely to be possible through a deep understanding of the international political and economic situation and proactive defense diplomacy. This study analyzes the impact of current global geopolitical crises on Korea's defense industry and presents effective strategies based on these findings, including innovative improvements to defense acquisition systems and the discovery of overseas defense cooperation partners to strengthen defense exports. This strategic approach aims to balance domestic consumption with exports, enhance military strength, and improve the country's standing in the international community. Therefore, efforts are needed to ensure the sustainable growth of the defense industry, enabling South Korea to achieve economies of scale and play a pivotal role in the global defense industry.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.153-195
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• 2010

The recent global financial crisis has been the outcome of, among other things, the mismatch between institutions and the reality of the market in the current global financial system. The International financial institutions (IFIs) that were designed more than 60 years ago can no longer effectively meet the challenges posed by the current global economy. While the global financial market has become integrated like a single market, there is no international lender of last resort or global regulatory body. There also has been a rapid shift in the weight of economic power. The share of the Group of 7 (G7) countries in global gross domestic product (GDP) fell and the share of emerging market economies increased rapidly. Therefore, the tasks facing us today are: (i) to reform the IFIs -mandate, resources, management, and governance structure; (ii) to reform the system such as the international monetary system (IMS), and regulatory framework of the global financial system; and (iii) to reform global economic governance. The main focus of this paper will be the IMS reform and the role of the Group of Twenty (G20) summit meetings. The current IMS problems can be summarized as follows. First, the demand for foreign reserve accumulation has been increasing despite the movement from fixed exchange rate regimes to floating rate regimes some 40 years ago. Second, this increasing demand for foreign reserves has been concentrated in US dollar assets, especially public securities. Third, as the IMS relies too heavily on the supply of currency issued by a center country (the US), it gives an exorbitant privilege to this country, which can issue Treasury bills at the lowest possible interest rate in the international capital market. Fourth, as a related problem, the global financial system depends too heavily on the center country's ability to maintain the stability of the value of its currency and strength of its own financial system. Fifth, international capital flows have been distorted in the current IMS, from EMEs and developing countries where the productivity of capital investment is higher, to advanced economies, especially the US, where the return to capital investment is lower. Given these problems, there have been various proposals to reform the current IMS. They can be grouped into two: demand-side and supply-side reform. The key in the former is how to reduce the widespread strong demand for foreign reserve holdings among EMEs. There have been several proposals to reduce the self-insurance motivation. They include third-party insurance and the expansion of the opportunity to borrow from a global and regional reserve pool, or access to global lender of last resort (or something similar). However, the first option would be too costly. That leads us to the second option - building a stronger globalfinancial safety net. Discussions on supply-side reform of the IMS focus on how to diversify the supply of international reserve currency. The proposals include moving to a multiple currency system; increased allocation and wider use of special drawing rights (SDR); and creating a new global reserve currency. A key question is whether diversification should be encouraged among suitable existing currencies, or if it should be sought more with global reserve assets, acting as a complement or even substitute to existing ones. Each proposal has its pros and cons; they also face trade-offs between desirability and political feasibility. The transition would require close collaboration among the major players. This should include efforts at the least to strengthen policy coordination and collaboration among the major economies, and to reform the IMF to make it a more effective institution for bilateral and multilateral surveillance and as an international lender of last resort. The success on both fronts depends heavily on global economic governance reform and the role of the G20. The challenge is how to make the G20 effective. Without institutional innovations within the G20, there is a high risk that its summits will follow the path of previous summit meetings, such as G7/G8.

• The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.295-303
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• 2017

In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.147-167
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• 2009

As global climate changes, the interest in environmental crisis is increasing and a number of international agreements and regulations against this crisis are being established. Global information technology(IT) corporations are building their own pro-environmental green IT strategies to cope with the regulatory measures. Green IT broadly refers to pro-environmental technologies designed to replace hazardous materials, maximize energy effectivity, and find alternative energies. In the current stage of the IT industry development, Green IT specifically refers to the technologies that deal with the server heat generation and the energy reduction in data center. This study defines the concept of Green IT and reviews its origin and necessity. Then, it examines the issues regarding Green IT industry in Korea as well as other countries and compares the Green IT strategies developed in each country. Reviewing the recent development of IT and data center market enables us to see that overall Green IT strategies focus on the establishment of Green Internet Data Centers. Therefore, this study analyzes the cases in which some domestic and foreign corporations introduced Green Data Centers in order to examine the protocol and legal requirements for building Green IT, the aspects of environmental evaluation and design, and specific strategies for launching Green IT strategies and its future assignments. The conclusions of this study are as follows. First, to introduce Green Data Center as a strategy to build Green IT, the government and corporations should cooperate with each other. Partial introduction at the initial stage is desirable because, through the process, mutual trust between the two parties can be built more smoothly. Second, CEO's determination to build Green IT and continue its operation is indispensable. CEO's are required to have clear understanding as to why Green IT needs to be built and how it should be constructed. Those who initiate the construction of Green Data Center for Green IT need to know the definition and necessity of Green IT while at the same time understanding the implicit meanings of Green IT. They also need to be aware of future-oriented values of Green Data Center and readjust their corporate business activities in the pro-environmental direction. Finally, not only the CEOs' pro-environmental activities but also the change of mind on the part of all corporate employees is required to realize Green IT. It should be remembered that pro-environmental Green IT starts with minor activities.