• Title/Summary/Keyword: Global Couple model

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Assessment of MJO Simulation with Global Coupled Model 2 and 3.1 (Global Coupled 모델 2와 3.1의 MJO 모의성능 평가)

  • Moon, Ja-Yeon;Kim, Ki-Young;Cho, Jeong-A;Yang, Young-Min;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Kim, Baek-Jo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.235-246
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    • 2022
  • A large number of MJO skill metrics and process-oriented MJO simulation metrics have been developed by previous studies including the MJO Working Group and Task Force. To assess models' successes and shortcomings in the MJO simulation, a standardized set of diagnostics with the additional set of dynamics-oriented diagnostics are applied. The Global Coupled (GC) model developed for the operation of the climate prediction system is used with the comparison between the GC2 and GC3.1. Two GC models successfully capture three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic structure as well as coherent eastward propagation from the reference regions of the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The low-level moisture convergence (LLMC) ahead of the MJO deep convection, the low-level westerly and easterly associated with the coupled Rossby-Kelvin wave and the upper-level divergence are simulated successfully. The GC3.1 model simulates a better three-dimensional structure of MJO and thus reproduces more realistic eastward propagation. In GC2, the MJO convection following the LLMC near and east of the Maritime Continent is much weaker than observation and has an asymmetric distribution of both low and upper-level circulation anomalies. The common shortcomings of GC2 and GC3.1 are revealed in the shorter MJO periods and relatively weak LLMC as well as convective activity over the western Indian Ocean.

On the Change of Hydrologic Conditions due to Global Warming : 1. An Analysis on the Change of Temperature in Korea Peninsula using Regional Scale Model (지구온난화에 따른 수문환경의 변화와 관련하여 : 1. 국지규모 모형을 이용한 한반도 기온의 변화 분석)

  • An, Jae-Hyeon;Yun, Yong-Nam;Lee, Jae-Su
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.347-356
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    • 2001
  • Even though the increase of greenhouse gases such as $CO_2$ is thought to be the main cause for global warming, its impact on global climate has not been revealed clearly in rather quantitative manners. However, researches using Genral Circulation Model(GCM) has shown that the accumulation of greenhouse gases increases the global mean temperature, which in turn impacts on the global water circulation pattern. A climate predictive capability is limited by lack of understanding of the different process governing the climate and hydrologic systems. The prediction of the complex responses of the fully coupled climate and hydrologic systems can be achieved only through development of models that adequately describe the relevant process at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. These models must ultimately couple the atmospheres, oceans, and lad and will involve many submodels that properly represent the individual processes at work within the coupled components of systems. So far, there are no climate and related hydrologic models except local rainfall-runoff models in Korea. The purpose of this research is to predict the change of temperature in Korean Peninsula using regional scale model(IRSHAM96 model) and GCM data obtained from the increasing scenarios of $CO_2$ Korean Peninsula increased by $2.5^{\circ}C$ and the duration of Winter in $lxCO_2$ condition would be shorter the $2xCo_2$ condition due to global warming.

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Suicide Attempt Behavior among Secondary School Students in Peru through PRECEDE Model (PRECEDE 모형을 통한 페루 중・고등학교 학생들의 자살시도 경험요인)

  • Kim, Ha Yun;Nam, Eun Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: There is higher rates of experience of suicide ideation and suicide attempt of adolescents in the Lima and Callao region compared with the results of the epidemiological study (2013) conducted by Peru National Institute of Mental Health and the Global School-based Student Health Survey (2010) which is was conducted among adolescents across all regions of Peru. Based on the PRECEDE model, this study analyzed the prevalence and the factor associated with the suicide attempt among the adolescent in a poor urban area in Peru. Methods: A stratified random sampling was used for the survey to select study participants from the 6 secondary schools based in Comas or Callao. The survey was conducted November 25th and December 4th in 2015 and a total of 738 individuals included in the analysis. In order to analyze factors influencing suicide attempt, comparison of predisposing factor, reinforcing factor, enabling factor, behavioral factor, environmental factor, psychological factors by suicide attempt and suicide risk group were identified through the chi-square test and hierarchical logistic regression. Results: Results showed that those who reported having less parental understanding, less time spent with parents, and 'almost none/none' for parental affection had more experience of suicide attempt and were more likely to sort into the high suicide risk group. Also, a greater proportion of those with the experience of suicide attempt had more experience of smoking and alcohol consumption, and experience of physical abuse and feeling insulted and depression in comparison to that of those without experience of suicide attempt. Variables that had a significant effect on suicide attempt included depression, subjective happiness, smoking experience, sexual intercourse, involvement in fight, parental affection, and gender (male). Conclusions: The results of the current study can serve as grounds for the necessity of acknowledging that adolescent suicide does not simply depend on a couple of factors, but arises from situations in which individual, home, school, social factors influence one another, and therefore adolescent suicide should be prevented and addressed through a multi-dimensional and integrated approach.

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Multivariable Integrated Evaluation of GloSea5 Ocean Hindcasting

  • Lee, Hyomee;Moon, Byung-Kwon;Kim, Han-Kyoung;Wie, Jieun;Park, Hyo Jin;Chang, Pil-Hun;Lee, Johan;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.605-622
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    • 2021
  • Seasonal forecasting has numerous socioeconomic benefits because it can be used for disaster mitigation. Therefore, it is necessary to diagnose and improve the seasonal forecast model. Moreover, the model performance is partly related to the ocean model. This study evaluated the hindcast performance in the upper ocean of the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5-Global Couple Configuration 2 (GloSea5-GC2) using a multivariable integrated evaluation method. The normalized potential temperature, salinity, zonal and meridional currents, and sea surface height anomalies were evaluated. Model performance was affected by the target month and was found to be better in the Pacific than in the Atlantic. An increase in lead time led to a decrease in overall model performance, along with decreases in interannual variability, pattern similarity, and root mean square vector deviation. Improving the performance for ocean currents is a more critical than enhancing the performance for other evaluated variables. The tropical Pacific showed the best accuracy in the surface layer, but a spring predictability barrier was present. At the depth of 301 m, the north Pacific and tropical Atlantic exhibited the best and worst accuracies, respectively. These findings provide fundamental evidence for the ocean forecasting performance of GloSea5.

Tolerance Factor Analysis of Flexible Pedestrian Legform Impactor Test (신형 하부다리 모형 시험 결과에 영향을 미치는 오차 인자 분석)

  • Lee, Yonghoon;Kim, Hanseung;Jang, Sungjae
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2014
  • The flexible pedestrian legform impactor(Flex-PLI) consisting of a flexible femur and tibia will be tested for pedestrian protection by global technical regulation(GTR) within the next couple of years as a replacement for the existing transport research laboratory(TRL) legform impactor. In this study, a computer aided engineering(CAE) model was used to perform the effect analysis of each injury with regard to the changes in tolerance factors with the baseline results without tolerance. The tolerance factors were the height of impactor from ground reference line, initial velocity of impactor and rotation of impactor.

Effect of dynamic absorber on the nonlinear vibration of SFG cylindrical shell

  • Foroutan, Kamran;Ahmadi, Habib
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.291-308
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, a numerical method is utilized to study the effect of a new vibration absorber on vibration response of the stiffened functionally graded (SFG) cylindrical shell under a couple of axial and transverse compressions. The material composition of the stiffeners and shell is continuously changed through the thickness. The vibration absorber consists of a mass-spring-damper system which is connected to the ground utilizing a linear local damper. To simplify, the spring element of the vibration absorber is called global potential. The von Kármán strain-displacement kinematic nonlinearity is employed in the constitutive laws of the shell and stiffeners. To consider the stiffeners in the model, the smeared stiffener technique is used. After obtaining the governing equations, the Galerkin method is applied to discretize the nonlinear dynamic equation of system. In order to find the nonlinear vibration responses, the fourth order Runge-Kutta method is utilized. The influence of the stiffeners, the dynamic absorber parameters on the vibration behavior of the SFG cylindrical shell is investigated. Also, the influences of material parameters of the system on the vibration response are examined.

Response of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle: Climate Variability in CarbonTracker and CMIP5 Earth System Models (기후 인자와 관련된 육상 탄소 순환 변동: 탄소추적시스템과 CMIP5 모델 결과 비교)

  • Sun, Minah;Kim, Youngmi;Lee, Johan;Boo, Kyoung-On;Byun, Young-Hwa;Cho, Chun-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.301-316
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzes the spatio-temporal variability of terrestrial carbon flux and the response of land carbon sink with climate factors to improve of understanding of the variability of land-atmosphere carbon exchanges accurately. The coupled carbon-climate models of CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and CT (CarbonTracker) are used. The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean overestimated the NEP (Net Ecosystem Production) compares to CT and GCP (Global Carbon Project) estimates over the period 2001~2012. Variation of NEP in the CMIP5 ensemble mean is similar to CT, but a couple of models which have fire module without nitrogen cycle module strongly simulate carbon sink in the Africa, Southeast Asia, South America, and some areas of the United States. Result in comparison with climate factor, the NEP is highly affected by temperature and solar radiation in both of CT and CMIP5. Partial correlation between temperature and NEP indicates that the temperature is affecting NEP positively at higher than mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but opposite correlation represents at other latitudes in CT and most CMIP5 models. The CMIP5 models except for few models show positive correlation with precipitation at $30^{\circ}N{\sim}90^{\circ}N$, but higher percentage of negative correlation represented at $60^{\circ}S{\sim}30^{\circ}N$ compare to CT. For each season, the correlation between temperature (solar radiation) and NEP in the CMIP5 ensemble mean is similar to that of CT, but overestimated.

A study on Biz Models Through the T-DMB Total Solution Developed by the Convergence of Communication and Broadcasting Technologies (통신.방송 융합기술 지상파 DMB Total Solution 비즈 모델 연구)

  • Eun, Jong-Won
    • Journal of Satellite, Information and Communications
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2011
  • The T-DMB(Terrestrial Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) which was developed by the convergence of digital broadcasting technology and communication technology provides us with very good quality of music like CD, and provides TV services in a super express train like the KTX whose velocity is over 300 Km per hour. The T-DMB is diffusing toward the world as a technology which is be able to provide the various convergent services of broadcasting and communication through mobile phone, PDA, dedicated terminal, and so on. A business model needed for the diffusion of the T-DMB toward the world was established and utilized to expand the T-DMB into Vietnam in the paper. In addition, this paper describes not only some predicting methods for the technological valuation of the T-DMB Total Solution, but also a case study on the marketing related to establishing the T-DMB system in order to provide the paid services in Vietnam. Finally, A couple of business models needed to globally expand the T-DMB have been provided.

The Analysis of COVID-19 Pooled-Testing Systems with False Negatives Using a Queueing Model (대기행렬을 이용한 위음성률이 있는 코로나 취합검사 시스템의 분석)

  • Kim, Kilhwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.154-168
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    • 2021
  • COVID-19 has been spreading all around the world, and threatening global health. In this situation, identifying and isolating infected individuals rapidly has been one of the most important measures to contain the epidemic. However, the standard diagnosis procedure with RT-PCR (Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction) is costly and time-consuming. For this reason, pooled testing for COVID-19 has been proposed from the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic to reduce the cost and time of identifying the COVID-19 infection. For pooled testing, how many samples are tested in group is the most significant factor to the performance of the test system. When the arrivals of test requirements and the test time are stochastic, batch-service queueing models have been utilized for the analysis of pooled-testing systems. However, most of them do not consider the false-negative test results of pooled testing in their performance analysis. For the COVID-19 RT-PCR test, there is a small but certain possibility of false-negative test results, and the group-test size affects not only the time and cost of pooled testing, but also the false-negative rate of pooled testing, which is a significant concern to public health authorities. In this study, we analyze the performance of COVID-19 pooled-testing systems with false-negative test results. To do this, we first formulate the COVID-19 pooled-testing systems with false negatives as a batch-service queuing model, and then obtain the performance measures such as the expected number of test requirements in the system, the expected number of RP-PCR tests for a test sample, the false-negative group-test rate, and the total cost per unit time, using the queueing analysis. We also present a numerical example to demonstrate the applicability of our analysis, and draw a couple of implications for COVID-19 pooled testing.

Numerical and experimental study of unsteady wind loads on panels of a radar aerial

  • Scarabino, Ana;Sainz, Mariano Garcia;Bacchi, Federico;Delnero, J. Sebastian;Canchero, Andres
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2016
  • This work experimentally and numerically analyzes the flow configurations and the dynamic wind loads on panels of rectangular L/h 5:1 cross section mounted on a structural frame of rectangular bars of L/h 0.5:1, corresponding to a radar structure. The fluid dynamic interaction between panels and frame wakes imposes dynamic loads on the panels, with particular frequencies and Strouhal numbers, different from those of isolated elements. The numerical scheme is validated by comparison with mean forces and velocity spectra of a panel wake obtained by wind tunnel tests. The flow configuration is analyzed through images of the numerical simulations. For a large number of panels, as in the radar array, their wakes couple in either phase or counter-phase configurations, changing the resultant forces on each panel. Instantaneous normal and tangential force coefficients are reported; their spectra show two distinct peaks, caused by the interaction of the wakes. Finally, a scaled model of a rectangular structure comprised of panels and frame elements is tested in the boundary layer wind tunnel in order to determine the influence of the velocity variation with height and the three-dimensionality of the bulk flow around the structure. Results show that the unsteady aerodynamic loads, being strongly influenced by the vortex shedding of the supporting elements and by the global 3-D geometry of the array, differ considerably on a panel in this array from loads acting on an isolated panel, not only in magnitude, but also in frequency.