• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generalized extreme value distribution

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The Likelihood for a Two-Dimensional Poisson Exceedance Point Process Model

  • Yun, Seok-Hoon
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.793-798
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    • 2008
  • Extreme value inference deals with fitting the generalized extreme value distribution model and the generalized Pareto distribution model, which are recently combined to give a single model, namely a two-dimensional non-homogeneous Poisson exceedance point process model. In this paper, we extend the two-dimensional non-homogeneous Poisson process model to include non-stationary effect or dependence on covariates and then derive the likelihood for the extended model.

Estimation for the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Based on Multiply Type-II Censored Samples

  • Han, Jun-Tae;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.817-826
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we derive the approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the scale parameter and the location parameter in a generalized extreme value distribution under multiply Type-II censoring by the approximate maximum likelihood estimation method. We compare the proposed estimators in the sense of the mean squared error for various censored samples.

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Extreme Value Analysis of Statistically Independent Stochastic Variables

  • Choi, Yongho;Yeon, Seong Mo;Kim, Hyunjoe;Lee, Dongyeon
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.222-228
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    • 2019
  • An extreme value analysis (EVA) is essential to obtain a design value for highly nonlinear variables such as long-term environmental data for wind and waves, and slamming or sloshing impact pressures. According to the extreme value theory (EVT), the extreme value distribution is derived by multiplying the initial cumulative distribution functions for independent and identically distributed (IID) random variables. However, in the position mooring of DNVGL, the sampled global maxima of the mooring line tension are assumed to be IID stochastic variables without checking their independence. The ITTC Recommended Procedures and Guidelines for Sloshing Model Tests never deal with the independence of the sampling data. Hence, a design value estimated without the IID check would be under- or over-estimated because of considering observations far away from a Weibull or generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as outliers. In this study, the IID sampling data are first checked in an EVA. With no IID random variables, an automatic resampling scheme is recommended using the block maxima approach for a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach for a GPD. A partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is used to check the IID variables. In this study, only one 5 h sample of sloshing test results was used for a feasibility study of the resampling IID variables approach. Based on this study, the resampling IID variables may reduce the number of outliers, and the statistically more appropriate design value could be achieved with independent samples.

Comparison Study of Parameter Estimation Methods for Some Extreme Value Distributions (Focused on the Regression Method) (극단치 분포의 모수 추정방법 비교 연구(회귀 분석법을 기준으로))

  • Woo, Ji-Yong;Kim, Myung-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.463-477
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    • 2009
  • Parameter estimation methods such as maximum likelihood estimation method, probability weighted moments method, regression method have been popularly applied to various extreme value models in numerous literature. Among three methods above, the performance of regression method has not been rigorously investigated yet. In this paper the regression method is compared with the other methods via Monte Carlo simulation studies for estimation of parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and the Generalized Pareto(GP) distribution. Our simulation results indicate that the regression method tends to outperform other methods under small samples by providing smaller biases and root mean square errors for estimation of location parameter of the GEV model. For the scale parameter estimation of the GP model under small samples, the regression method tends to report smaller biases than the other methods. The regression method tends to be superior to other methods for the shape parameter estimation of the GEV model and GP model when the shape parameter is -0.4 under small and moderately large samples.

A Bayesian Analysis of Return Level for Extreme Precipitation in Korea (한국지역 집중호우에 대한 반환주기의 베이지안 모형 분석)

  • Lee, Jeong Jin;Kim, Nam Hee;Kwon, Hye Ji;Kim, Yongku
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.947-958
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    • 2014
  • Understanding extreme precipitation events is very important for flood planning purposes. Especially, the r-year return level is a common measure of extreme events. In this paper, we present a spatial analysis of precipitation return level using hierarchical Bayesian modeling. For intensity, we model annual maximum daily precipitations and daily precipitation above a high threshold at 62 stations in Korea with generalized extreme value(GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution(GPD), respectively. The spatial dependence among return levels is incorporated to the model through a latent Gaussian process of the GEV and GPD model parameters. We apply the proposed model to precipitation data collected at 62 stations in Korea from 1973 to 2011.

Estimating quantiles of extreme wind speed using generalized extreme value distribution fitted based on the order statistics

  • Liu, Y.X.;Hong, H.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.469-482
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    • 2022
  • The generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is frequently used to fit the block maximum of environmental parameters such as the annual maximum wind speed. There are several methods for estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution, including the least-squares method (LSM). However, the application of the LSM with the expected order statistics has not been reported. This study fills this gap by proposing a fitting method based on the expected order statistics. The study also proposes a plotting position to approximate the expected order statistics; the proposed plotting position depends on the distribution shape parameter. The use of this approximation for distribution fitting is carried out. Simulation analysis results indicate that the developed fitting procedure based on the expected order statistics or its approximation for GEVD is effective for estimating the distribution parameters and quantiles. The values of the probability plotting correlation coefficient that may be used to test the distributional hypothesis are calculated and presented. The developed fitting method is applied to extreme thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds for several major cities in Canada. Also, the implication of using the GEVD and Gumbel distribution to model the extreme wind speed on the structural reliability is presented and elaborated.

SECOND ORDER REGULAR VARIATION AND ITS APPLICATIONS TO RATES OF CONVERGENCE IN EXTREME-VALUE DISTRIBUTION

  • Lin, Fuming;Peng, Zuoxiang;Nadarajah, Saralees
    • Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.75-93
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    • 2008
  • The rate of convergence of the distribution of order statistics to the corresponding extreme-value distribution may be characterized by the uniform and total variation metrics. de Haan and Resnick [4] derived the convergence rate when the second order generalized regularly varying function has second order derivatives. In this paper, based on the properties of the generalized regular variation and the second order generalized variation and characterized by uniform and total variation metrics, the convergence rates of the distribution of the largest order statistic are obtained under weaker conditions.

Prediction of extreme rainfall with a generalized extreme value distribution (일반화 극단 분포를 이용한 강우량 예측)

  • Sung, Yong Kyu;Sohn, Joong K.
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.857-865
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    • 2013
  • Extreme rainfall causes heavy losses in human life and properties. Hence many works have been done to predict extreme rainfall by using extreme value distributions. In this study, we use a generalized extreme value distribution to derive the posterior predictive density with hierarchical Bayesian approach based on the data of Seoul area from 1973 to 2010. It becomes clear that the probability of the extreme rainfall is increasing for last 20 years in Seoul area and the model proposed works relatively well for both point prediction and predictive interval approach.