• The Southeast Asian review
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.213-261
• /
• 2018

On May 9, 2018, regime change took place in Malaysia. It was the first regime change that took place in 61 years after independence in 1957. The regime change was an unexpected result not only in Malaysian experts but also in political circles. Moreover, the outcome of the election was more shocking because the opposition party was divided in this general election. The regime change in Malaysia was enough to attract worldwide attention because it meant the collapse of the oldest regime in the modern political system that exists, except North Korea and China. How could this have happened? In particular, how could the regime change, which had not been accomplished despite opposition parties' cooperation for almost 20 years, could be achieved with the divided opposition forces? What political implications does the 2018 general election result have for political change and democratization in Malaysia? How will the Malaysian politics be developed in the aftermath of the regime change? It is worth noting that during the process of finding answers, a series of general elections since the start of reformasi in 1998 tended to be likened to a series of "tsunami" in the Malaysian electoral history. This phenomenon of tsunami means that, even though very few predicted the possibility of regime change among academia, civil society and political circles, the regime change was not sudden. In other words, the regime in 2018 was the result of the desire and expectation of political change through a series of elections of Malaysian voters last 20 years. In this context, this study, in analyzing the results of the election in 2018, shows that the activation of electoral politics triggered by the reform movement in 1998, along with the specific situational factors in 2018, could lead to collapse of the ruling government for the first time since independence.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.315-325
• /
• 2016

Thanks to the advantages of low cost and quick results, public opinion polls on election in Korea have been generally conducted by telephone survey, even though it has critical disadvantage of low response rate. In public opinion polls on election in Korea, the general method to handle nonresponses is adjusting the survey weight to estimate parameters. This study first drives mathematical expression of estimator and its bias with variance estimators with/without nonresponses in election polls in Korea. We also investigates the nonresponse rate of telephone survey on 2012 Korea presidential election. The average response rate was barely about 14.4%. In addition, we conducted a survey in April 2014 on the respondents's attitude toward telephone surveys. In the survey, the first reason for which respondents do not answer on public opinion polls on election was "feel bothered". And the aged 20s group, the most low response group, also gave the same answer. We here suggest that survey researchers motivate survey respondents, specially younger group, to participate surveys and find methods boosting response rate such as giving incentive.

• Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.346-350
• /
• 2010

Since sensor nodes have restriction of using resources in Zigbee network, number of study on improving efficiency is currently ongoing[1]. Clustering mechanism based on hierarchy structure provides a prevention of duplicated information and a facility of a network expansion[2]. however overheads can occurs when the cluster header is elected and the election of a incorrect cluster header causes to use resources inefficiently. In this paper, we propose that the cluster header election mechanism using distances between nodes and density of nodes in accordance with the operation of the central processing system in which the sync nodes are having information of location and energy with respect to general nodes based on hierachy clustering mechanism.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.17 no.8
• /
• pp.80-89
• /
• 2017

Television viewing affects viewers' attitudes and opinions on their political issues. Since the beginning of General Programming TV services in 2011, they are criticized of their politically biased programming. In order to investigate the effect of General Programming TV on voters' behavior, we analyzed whether or not there is a change in the voting behavior of the conservative parties among the areas with high and low TV ratings of general programming TV. Based on the result of 18th presidential election in December 2012, we could not find any difference in voting behavior on the Saenuri party among the areas with high and low ratings of general programming TV channels. However, in the 6th provincial election in June 2014, while the voting shares of the Saenuri party were higher in the areas with high ratings of TV Chosun, Channel A, and JTBC than in those areas with low ratings.

• Survey Research
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.33-55
• /
• 2010

In this study, we newly define the Total Survey Error(TSE) in exit poll and investigate the TSEs of the exit poll survey for the 18th general election of 2008 to analyse the cause of the exit poll prediction error. To explore the main cause and effect of the total survey error, the total survey error was divided by the sampling error which comes from sampling process of poll stations and the non-sampling error which comes from selecting voter and collecting responses from sampled voters in each electoral district. We consider the relationship between non-response rates and total survey error as well as non-sampling error. Also, we study the representativeness of the exit poll sample by comparing the sex/age distribution of the exit poll data and the National Election Commission poll data.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.14 no.1
• /
• pp.147-165
• /
• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.75-99
• /
• 2010

This paper aims to examine the causes and features of current generational conflicts in Korea and to discuss their implications. The data utilized in the study include collective data on presidential and general elections and secondary data obtained from empirical research. The findings are as follows. First, generational power conflicts express itself by struggles among generations concerning the timing of political power transfer. An average age of assemblymen decreases consistently regardless of changes in overriding ideological atmosphere in general - conservative vs. liberal. Second, ideological conflicts among generations were highly intensified around 2002 presidential election, but gradually moderated since 2004 general election. The conflicts might be re-intensified if a set of conditions were satisfied. Third, cultural conflicts between older and younger generations were contrasted around three cultual axes: economic growth with top priority vs. consumerism, collectivism vs. individualism, and authoritarianism vs. post-authoritarianism. To ease strained relations between generations, intergenerational programs were suggested.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.203-224
• /
• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the budget allocation of Busan-Gwangyang port and political variables such as general election, presidential election, local election and political regimes. To do this, this study did correlation analyses using budget data of all ports in Korea, Busan, and Gwangyang during 1985-2007. The main results of the correlation analyses are as follow: First, there was a positive correlation between budget of Busan and local election. Also, there was a positive correlation between budget of Gwangyang and presidential election. This results suggest that public choice model and political business cycle model seem to apply to the port development policy. Second, there was no correlation between the regionalism of the political regime and budget of Busan-Gwangyang ports. Third, it can be inferred that the national agenda of the hub strategy can be positively related to the implementation of port development budget. Further studies are needed to analyse the relationship between the political variables and establishment of port plan, decision making about port development and ground-breaking of port construction.

• The Southeast Asian review
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.53-82
• /
• 2018

The $14^{th}$ general election which should be held by August 2018 has been a dominant factor for Malaysian politics, economy, social changes and foreign policy in 2017. UMNO, the dominant party within the ruling governmental coalition, has focused on securing Malay support, voters which made them to sought political cooperation with PAS, Malaysia's Islamist opposition party. A consequent event followed by the strategic ties between the two parties is the rise of political Islam in Malaysia though PAS' 'Islamization' or 'desecularization' has never been adopted by UMNO. The rise of political Islam and Malay support have become the most important factor for the next election, which increasingly enhanced the role of 3R of Malaysia politics; Race, Religion, and Royalty. The Pakatan Harapan (PH), the newly formed opposition coalition without PAS, has elected Mahathir Mohamad, the former Prime Minister, as its candidate for prime minister. Malaysian economy and foreign policy seem to be subordinated to politics. Stabilizing ringgit and restoring economic growth enabled the Najib's government to reveal 'election budget' for 2018. Najib has spoken out Islam-related international issues including the Rohingya crisis and Jerusalem issue. It is to some extent the extension of domestic politics. The rise of political Islam will be a highly influential not only in the coming election but in the political and social development in the aftermath of the election.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.12 no.8
• /
• pp.157-166
• /
• 2012

At the recent 19th General Election, Korean papers waged a surrogate war for the parties they share ideology with. All the conventional practices remained the same - the horse race-like presentations, furthering of confrontations, disregarding policy issues, allocating larger space for commentaries and negative issues, and etc. On top of these, papers began to focus on generational conflicts and individuals at the center of widespread attention and controversies, as a new trend. Photo images are largely used in the commentaries and articles dealing with confrontational or controversial situations. Of course, while the visual images seem to reinforce the emotional appeal of the messages papers try to get across, the potential problems need be noticed that could rise when irrelevant images are used.