• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.689-718
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• 2014

This study analyzes the ripple effects on the national economy of the flood damage using a perfect foresight dynamic CGE model for 2010 as the base year in case that the flood damage reduces the capital of the relevant industrial sectors. The analysis is limited to the items of physical damage such as agricultural land, ships and public facilities, for which statistical data can be obtained. As flood damage scenarios we adopt the minimum, maximum and average value of flood damage's historical data over the period 1991~2010 for each item. The results show that the largest production decline happens to the industry of fishing and transport and the next largest to the agricultural and forestry industry. The GDP reduction in the base year turns out to be from 0.001 to 0.057 percent compared to the benchmark and 11 percent compared to the exogenous shock to capital stock. Dynamically, the GDP gradually decreases until the year of 2030, which shows the long-lasting impact on the national economy of flood damage via the chanel of the capital damage.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.681-687
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• 2013

Free Trade Agreement(FTA) aims at abolishing tariffs on trade among nations or regions resulting in having a significant impact on maritime transportation and port. Korea made the first FTA with Chile in 2004 and the trade volume between two countries has seen significant increase. The literature on such impact, however, seems to be very limited. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to analyze the impact of Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement on the imported container throughput from Chile at the Busan Port. For this both cross-sectional and time series data are collected that comprise container throughput, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), import tariff, and maritime freight rate, from 2000 to 2011, and the gravity model is applied. The main result of the study shows that the dependent variables, GDP and import tariff are statistically significant, but the maritime freight rate is not consistent with regarding to statistical significance and parameter sign.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.485-494
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• 2016

The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the impact and determinants of bilateral Free Trade Agreements on international total bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea using the Panel Gravity Model. The model estimates the aggregated panel data of exports and imports (excluding transshipment) as a dependent variable during the period from 1996 to 2015. GDP, GDP per capita, distances between bilateral countries, and FTA dummies are included as independent variables. And the economic integration of FTAs including ASEAN+3 and NAFTA3 countries were used as dummy variables. Study results show that GDP and GDP per capita have positive impacts on bulk shipment trade volume at the port of Korea. In addition, Korea's bilateral FTAs with Singapore, India and the United States have positive effects on total bulk trade volume in Korea. This is the so called trade creation effect. On the other hand, ASEAN+3 and NAFTA have negative effects on the total bulk trade. This is the so called trade diversion effect. Also, the distance between Korea and its trade partners has a negative impact. These findings provide insights for: further academic research, site operators who work in related trade and maritime sectors, and policy makers engaged in port and maritime operations. The results can be used to develop strategies for maximizing bulk port throughput.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.119-138
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• 2024

Text indicators are increasingly valuable in economic forecasting, but are often hindered by noise and high dimensionality. This study aims to explore post-processing techniques, specifically noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, to normalize text indicators and enhance their utility through empirical analysis. Predictive target variables for the empirical analysis include monthly leading index cyclical variations, BSI (business survey index) All industry sales performance, BSI All industry sales outlook, as well as quarterly real GDP SA (seasonally adjusted) growth rate and real GDP YoY (year-on-year) growth rate. This study explores the Hodrick and Prescott filter, which is widely used in econometrics for noise filtering, and employs sufficient dimension reduction, a nonparametric dimensionality reduction methodology, in conjunction with unstructured text data. The analysis results reveal that noise filtering of text indicators significantly improves predictive accuracy for both monthly and quarterly variables, particularly when the dataset is large. Moreover, this study demonstrated that applying dimensionality reduction further enhances predictive performance. These findings imply that post-processing techniques, such as noise filtering and dimensionality reduction, are crucial for enhancing the utility of text indicators and can contribute to improving the accuracy of economic forecasts.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.41-63
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• 2017

FDI can either be absorbed in the production cycle with domestic investment and create an inducement effect or it can remain as an exogenous factor and increase the volatility of GDP. The purpose of this paper is to research these different impacts that FDI could have. For that, the endogenous growth theory was employed. The statistic method used are the panel model for sectoral analysis, and GARCH model and VAR for time series analysis. Myanmar was selected as this paper's research subject because it is one of countries which had a colossal amount of FDI inflow recently. The panel analysis did not confirm the causality between sectoral FDI and sectoral GDP. The reason for this could be in the lack of data, since sectoral data exists yearly only during 2006-2016. Therefore this study conducted the times series analysis. According to the results, during 2006 until 2010, it showed signs of GARCH but the effect of FDI on GDP was nonexistent, which means FDI was not integrated into the domestic production cycle but stayed in residual terms. During 2011 to 2016, FDI seemed to affect the growth of Myanmar's GDP. The estimation confirmed the existence of GARCH and the Granzer causality test confirmed that FDI influenced the GARCH, which signified FDI increased the volatility of GDP. The VAR analysis showed responses of GDP to FDI was small(about 0.0007). This research assumes that FDI can be divided in two parts: one part which can be assimilated in the domestic production cycle and the other where it stays outside of the production cycle. The former creates production inducement effect and the latter only increases the volatility of GDP. According to this study, the latter outweighs the former impact in Myanmar.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2008

This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between vessel export and economic growth using annual data over the period from 1977 to 2006. Tests for ADF unit-roots, the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error correction model and impulse response function are presented. The findings of the Granger test suggest that vessel export Granger-causes economic growth in the short-run and economic growth Granger-causes exports in the short and long-run. The empirical results of impulse-response analysis show that the vessel export to a shock in real GDP responds positively and the real GDP responds positively to the shocks in vessel export. Also, the results indicate that the impact of vessel export shock on the real GDP is short-lived.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.9
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• pp.189-200
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of China's trade relationships with and dependency on the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative and to present some implications. This study collected annual total imports, exports, and GDP data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on 198 countries and the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) on 221 countries from 1995 to 2015. China's imports and exports have expanded considerably from the mid-1990s to the present, and China's dependence on imports and exports with the US and Japan has declined, while its dependence on the Middle East, South Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia has increased. China has a very high level of dependence on imports from and exports to the countries participating in the Belt and Road initiative, and as the Belt and Road project progresses, the mutual trade dependency between China and the other participating countries is expected to strengthen and expand.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.385-391
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• 2022

In this study, a multivariate time series analysis was conducted to identify various variables that impact ocean freight rates in addition to supply and demand factors. First, we used the ClarkSea Index, Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, and Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings provided by the Shipping Intelligence as substitute variables for the dependent variable, ocean freight. The following ndependent variables were selected: World Seaborne Trade, World Fleet, Brent Crude Oil Price, World GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (IP OECD) Growth Rate, Interest Rate (US$ LIBOR 6 Months), and Inflation (CP I OECD) through previous studies. The time series data comprise annual data (1992-2020), and a regression analysis was conducted. Results of the regression analysis show that the World Seaborne Trade and Brent Crude Oil P rice impacted the ClarkSea Index. Only the World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade impacted the Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, World Seaborne Oil Trade, Brent Crude Oil Price, IP, and CP I on the Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.131-152
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• 2018

This study evaluates the potential by Chines region for entry of Korean logistics companies and retailers. The variables affecting e-commerce business and retail sales concerning the Chinese omni-channel market were extracted from a thorough literature review. Empirical analyses for variables based on 31 regions in China were performed. Results show that e-commerce is affected by disposable income and internet traffic and that retail sales are affected by urban and rural population, GRDP and urbanization. In addition, we performed variance decomposition analysis in order to estimate responses of logistics GDP(transport, storage and communication) and the number of Chinese mobile users. Exogenous shocks to logistics GDP and the number of mobile phone users play a strong role in explaining the forecast error of express service variance over time. Based on our results, we suggest 7 potential regions(Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Liaoning and Shandong) as well as managerial implications for entry into China for logistics companies and retailers.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.758-771
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• 2010

Korea is characterized by a high R&D expenditure rate to the GDP. The performance of R&D in Korea, however, hardly seems to be satisfied. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of strategic resources and community engineering on R&D performance in bio-tech industry in Korea. The results of the study show strategic resources and community engineering are determinants of technological outcome. The strategic resources have a Significant positive effect on economic impact whereas community engineering has no Significant effect. In addition, the study results reveal that there is no moderating effect of strategic resources on the relation between community engineering and R&D performance. The major limitations of the study are on the measure of the variables.