한국항해항만학회지 (Journal of Navigation and Port Research)

  • 제46권4호
  • /
  • Pages.385-391
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  • 2022
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  • 1598-5725(pISSN)
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  • 2093-8470(eISSN)
한국항해항만학회 (Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research)
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해상운임에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인에 관한 연구

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Ocean Freight Rate

  • 김명희 (한국해양대학교 해양경영경제학부)
  • Kim, Myoung-Hee (Division of Maritime Business and Economics, Korea Maritime & Ocean University)
  • 투고 : 2022.08.08
  • 심사 : 2022.08.26
  • 발행 : 2022.08.31
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초록

본 연구에서는 수요 및 공급요인 외 해상운임에 영향을 주는 다양한 변수들을 발굴하고자 다변량 시계열분석을 수행해 보았다. 우선 종속변수에는 해상운임을 대용할 변수로 Shipping Intelligence에서 제공하고 있는 종합운임지수(ClarkSea Index), 벌크선운임(Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings), 탱커선운임(Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings) 등을 활용하였다. 선행연구를 통해 해상운임에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상되는 세계 해상물동량(World Seaborne Trade), 세계 선복량(World Fleet), 유가(Brent Crude Oil Price), 세계 GDP성장률(GDP World), OECD 산업생산성장률(Industrial Production OECD), 금리(US$ LIBOR 6 Months), OECD 인플레이션(CPI OECD) 등을 독립변수로 설정하여 회귀분석을 수행해 보았다. 데이터는 시계열자료로 1992년부터 2020년까지의 연데이터로 구성하였다. 분석결과 종합운임지수에는 해상물동량과 유가가, 벌크선운임에는 해상물동량만이, 탱커선운임에는 해상물동량, 유가, 산업생산성장률, 인플레이션 등이 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

In this study, a multivariate time series analysis was conducted to identify various variables that impact ocean freight rates in addition to supply and demand factors. First, we used the ClarkSea Index, Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, and Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings provided by the Shipping Intelligence as substitute variables for the dependent variable, ocean freight. The following ndependent variables were selected: World Seaborne Trade, World Fleet, Brent Crude Oil Price, World GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (IP OECD) Growth Rate, Interest Rate (US$ LIBOR 6 Months), and Inflation (CP I OECD) through previous studies. The time series data comprise annual data (1992-2020), and a regression analysis was conducted. Results of the regression analysis show that the World Seaborne Trade and Brent Crude Oil P rice impacted the ClarkSea Index. Only the World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade impacted the Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, World Seaborne Oil Trade, Brent Crude Oil Price, IP, and CP I on the Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings.

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과제정보

이 논문은 2016년 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임 (NRF-2016S1A5B5A07918113)

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