Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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Analysing the Economic Effects of Flood Damage by Dynamic CGE Model

동태CGE모형을 이용한 홍수피해의 경제파급효과 분석

  • Jeong, Kiho (School of Economics and Trade, Kyungpook National University) ;
  • Whang, Sungyoon (Department of International Trade on FTA, Kyungpook National University)
  • 정기호 (경북대학교 경제통상학부) ;
  • 황성윤 (경북대학교 FTA통상학과 대학원)
  • Received : 2014.08.18
  • Accepted : 2014.12.12
  • Published : 2014.12.31
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Abstract

This study analyzes the ripple effects on the national economy of the flood damage using a perfect foresight dynamic CGE model for 2010 as the base year in case that the flood damage reduces the capital of the relevant industrial sectors. The analysis is limited to the items of physical damage such as agricultural land, ships and public facilities, for which statistical data can be obtained. As flood damage scenarios we adopt the minimum, maximum and average value of flood damage's historical data over the period 1991~2010 for each item. The results show that the largest production decline happens to the industry of fishing and transport and the next largest to the agricultural and forestry industry. The GDP reduction in the base year turns out to be from 0.001 to 0.057 percent compared to the benchmark and 11 percent compared to the exogenous shock to capital stock. Dynamically, the GDP gradually decreases until the year of 2030, which shows the long-lasting impact on the national economy of flood damage via the chanel of the capital damage.

본 연구는 홍수피해가 관련 산업부문의 자본을 감소시킬 경우 국가경제에 미치는 파급효과를 완전예측형 동태CGE모형을 이용하여 2010년을 기준연도로 분석하였다. 여러 홍수피해 항목들 중에서 통계자료가 확보될 수 있는 농경지, 선박, 공공시설의 물적 피해 항목에 분석을 한정하였다. 홍수피해의 시나리오는 1991년~2010년 기간 홍수피해를 2010년 기준으로 불 변화하여 항목별 홍수피해의 평균과 최대로 각각 채택하였다. 분석 결과, 산업별 생산의 경우에는 자본스톡이 직접적으로 감소하는 수산업+운송업의 생산 감소율이 가장 크고 다음으로 농임 업의 생산감소율이 큰 것으로 나타났다. GDP는 충격 기준연도에 벤치마크 해 대비로는 0.001%~0.057% 그리고 초기 자본감소 대비로는 약 11% 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 동태적으로는 GDP는 말기로 가정된 2030년까지 서서히 감소하는 것으로 분석되어서 홍수피해가 자본을 감소시킬 경우 국가경제에 미치는 영향력은 오래 지속되는 것으로 나타났다.

Keywords

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