• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fuzzy Prediction System

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Development of Traffic Accidents Prediction Model With Fuzzy and Neural Network Theory (퍼지 및 신경망 이론을 이용한 교통사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jang-Uk;Nam, Gung-Mun;Kim, Jeong-Hyeon;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.7 s.93
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2006
  • It is important to clarify the relationship between traffic accidents and various influencing factors in order to reduce the number of traffic accidents. This study developed a traffic accident frequency prediction model using by multi-linear regression and qualification theories which are commonly applied in the field of traffic safety to verify the influences of various factors into the traffic accident frequency The data were collected on the Korean National Highway 17 which shows the highest accident frequencies and fatality rates in Chonbuk province. In order to minimize the uncertainty of the data, the fuzzy theory and neural network theory were applied. The neural network theory can provide fair learning performance by modeling the human neural system mathematically. Tn conclusion, this study focused on the practicability of the fuzzy reasoning theory and the neural network theory for traffic safety analysis.

A Study on the Diagnosis of the Centrifugal Pump by the Intelligent Diagnostic Method (지능진단기법에 의한 원심펌프의 고장진단에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Joon;Lee, Tae-Yeon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2003
  • The rotating machineries always generate harmonic frequencies of their own rotating speed, and increment of vibration amplitude affects to the equipments which connected to the vibrational source and causes industrial calamities. The life cycle of equipments can be extended and damages to the human beings could be prevented by identifying the cause of malfunctions through prediction of the increment of vibration and records of vibrational history. In this study, therefore, diagnostic expert algorithm for the centrifugal pump is developed by integrating fuzzy inference method and signal processing techniques. And the validity of the developed diagnostic system is examined via various computer simulations.

Design of a Geometric Adaptive Straightness Controller for Shaft Straightening Process (축교정을 위한 기하학적 진직도 적응제어기 설계)

  • Kim, Seung-Cheol;Jeong, Seong-Jong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.24 no.10 s.181
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    • pp.2451-2460
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    • 2000
  • In order to minimize straightness error of deflected shaft, a geometric adaptive straightness controller system is studied. A multi-step straightening and a three-point bending process have been developed for the geometric adaptive straightness controller. Load-deflection relationship, on-line identification of variations of material properties, on-line springback prediction, and real-time hydraulic control methodology are studied for the three-point bending process. By deflection pattern analysis and fuzzy self-learning method in the multi-step straightening process, a straightening point and direction, desired permanent deflection and supporting condition are determined. An automatic straightening machine has been fabricated for rack bars by using the developed ideas. Validity of the proposed system is verified through experiments.

An Improved Algorithm of the Daily Peak Load Forecasting fair the Holidays (특수일의 최대 전력수요예측 알고리즘 개선)

  • Song, Gyeong-Bin;Gu, Bon-Seok;Baek, Yeong-Sik
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2002
  • High accuracy of the load forecasting for power systems improves the security of the power system and generation cost. However, the forecasting problem is difficult to handle due to the nonlinear and the random-like behavior of system loads as well as weather conditions and variation of economical environments. So far. many studies on the problem have been made to improve the prediction accuracy using deterministic, stochastic, knowledge based and artificial neural net(ANN) method. In the conventional load forecasting method, the load forecasting maximum error occurred for the holidays on Saturday and Monday. In order to reduce the load forecasting error of the daily peak load for the holidays on Saturday and Monday, fuzzy concept and linear regression theory have been adopted into the load forecasting problem. The proposed algorithm shows its good accuracy that the average percentage errors are 2.11% in 1996 and 2.84% in 1997.

Statistical RBF Network with Applications to an Expert System for Characterizing Diabetes Mellitus

  • Om, Kyong-Sik;Kim, Hee-Chan;Min, Byoung-Goo;Shin, Chan-So;Lee, Hong-Kyu
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and information Science
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.355-365
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    • 1998
  • The purposes of this study are to propose a network for the characterizing of the input data and to show how to design predictive neural net재가 expert system which doesn't need previous knowledge base. We derived this network from the radial basis function networks(RBFN), and named it as a statistical EBFN. The proposed network can replace the statistical methods for analyzing dynamic relations between target disease and other parameters in medical studies. We compared statistical RBFN with the probabilistic neural network(PNN) and fuzzy logic(FL). And we testified our method in the diabetes prediction and compared our method with the well-known multilayer perceptron(MLP) neural network one, and showed good performance of our network. At last, we developed the diabetes prediction expert system based on the proposed statistical RBFN without previous knowledge base. Not only the applicability of the characterizing of parameters related to diabetes and construction of the diabetes prediction expert system but also wide applicabilities has the proposed statistical RBFN to other similar problems.

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Prediction Table for Marine Traffic for Vessel Traffic Service Based on Cognitive Work Analysis

  • Kim, Joo-Sung;Jeong, Jung Sik;Park, Gyei-Kark
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.315-323
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    • 2013
  • Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) is being used at ports and in coastal areas of the world for preventing accidents and improving efficiency of the vessels at sea on the basis of "IMO RESOLUTION A.857 (20) on Guidelines for Vessel Traffic Services". Currently, VTS plays an important role in the prevention of maritime accidents, as ships are required to participate in the system. Ships are diversified and traffic situations in ports and coastal areas have become more complicated than before. The role of VTS operator (VTSO) has been enlarged because of these reasons, and VTSO is required to be clearly aware of maritime situations and take decisions in emergency situations. In this paper, we propose a prediction table to improve the work of VTSO through the Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA), which analyzes the VTS work very systematically. The required data were collected through interviews and observations of 14 VTSOs. The prediction tool supports decision-making in terms of a proactive measure for the prevention of maritime accidents.

A New Similarity Measure using Fuzzy Logic for User-based Collaborative Filtering (사용자 기반의 협력필터링을 위한 퍼지 논리를 이용한 새로운 유사도 척도)

  • Lee, Soojung
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2018
  • Collaborative filtering is a fundamental technique implemented in many commercial recommender systems and provides a successful service to online users. This technique recommends items by referring to other users who have similar rating records to the current user. Hence, similarity measures critically affect the system performance. This study addresses problems of previous similarity measures and suggests a new similarity measure. The proposed measure reflects the subjectivity or vagueness of user ratings and the users' rating behavior by using fuzzy logic. We conduct experimental studies for performance evaluation, whose results show that the proposed measure demonstrates outstanding performance improvements in terms of prediction accuracy and recommendation accuracy.

On-line Prediction Model of Oil Content in Oil Discharge Monitoring Equipment Using Parallel TSK Fuzzy Modeling (병렬구조 TSK 퍼지 모델을 이용한 선박용 기름배출 감시장치의 실시간 기름농도 예측모델)

  • Baek, Gyeong-Dong;Cho, Jae-Woo;Choi, Moon-Ho;Kim, Sung-Shin
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2010
  • The oil tanker ship over 150GRT must equip oil content meter which satisfy requirements of revised MARPOL 73/78. Online measurement of oil content in complex samples is required to have fast response, continuous measurement, and satisfaction of ${\pm}10ppm$ or ${\pm}10%$ error in this field. The research of this paper is to develop oil content measurement system using analysis of light transmission and scattering among turbidity measurement methods. Light transmission and scattering are analytical methods commonly used in instrumentation for online turbidity measurement of oil in water. Gasoline is experimented as a sample and the oil content approximately ranged from 14ppm to 600ppm. TSK Fuzzy Model may be suitable to associate variously derived spectral signals with specific content of oil having various interfering factors. Proposed Parallel TSK Fuzzy Model is reasonably used to classify oil content in comparison with other models. Those measurement methods would be effectively applied and commercialized to oil content meter that is key components of oil discharge monitoring control equipment.

A Study of Prediction of Daily Water Supply Usion ANFIS (ANFIS를 이용한 상수도 1일 급수량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, Kyoung-Hoon;Moon, Byoung-Seok;Kang, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.821-832
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    • 1998
  • This study investigates the prediction of daily water supply, which is a necessary for the efficient management of water distribution system. Fuzzy neuron, namely artificial intelligence, is a neural network into which fuzzy information is inputted and then processed. In this study, daily water supply was predicted through an adaptive learning method by which a membership function and fuzzy rules were adapted for daily water supply prediction. This study was investigated methods for predicting water supply based on data about the amount of water supplied to the city of Kwangju. For variables choice, four analyses of input data were conducted: correlation analysis, autocorrelation analysis, partial autocorrelation analysis, and cross-correlation analysis. Input variables were (a) the amount of water supplied (b) the mean temperature, and (c)the population of the area supplied with water. Variables were combined in an integrated model. Data of the amount of daily water supply only was modelled and its validity was verified in the case that the meteorological office of weather forecast is not always reliable. Proposed models include accidental cases such as a suspension of water supply. The maximum error rate between the estimation of the model and the actual measurement was 18.35% and the average error was lower than 2.36%. The model is expected to be a real-time estimation of the operational control of water works and water/drain pipes.

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A Chaos Control Method by DFC Using State Prediction

  • Miyazaki, Michio;Lee, Sang-Gu;Lee, Seong-Hoon;Akizuki, Kageo
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2003
  • The Delayed Feedback Control method (DFC) proposed by Pyragas applies an input based on the difference between the current state of the system, which is generating chaos orbits, and the $\tau$-time delayed state, and stabilizes the chaos orbit into a target. In DFC, the information about a position in the state space is unnecessary if the period of the unstable periodic orbit to stabilize is known. There exists the fault that DFC cannot stabilize the unstable periodic orbit when a linearlized system around the periodic point has an odd number property. There is the chaos control method using the prediction of the $\tau$-time future state (PDFC) proposed by Ushio et al. as the method to compensate this fault. Then, we propose a method such as improving the fault of the DFC. Namely, we combine DFC and PDFC with parameter W, which indicates the balance of both methods, not to lose each advantage. Therefore, we stabilize the state into the $\tau$ periodic orbit, and ask for the ranges of Wand gain K using Jury' method, and determine the quasi-optimum pair of (W, K) using a genetic algorithm. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a discrete-time chaotic system, and show the efficiency through some examples of numerical experiments.