• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권5호
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• pp.69-80
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• 2018

This study investigated climate change influences over crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the wheat-rice cropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) command in Punjab Province, Pakistan. PRECIS simulated delta-change climate projections under the A1B scenario were used to project future climate during two-time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080) against baseline climatology (1980-2010). CROPWAT model was used to simulate future CWRs and IWRs of the crops. Projections suggested that future climate of the study area would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased CWRs and IWRs for both the crops. Wheat CWR was more sensitive to climate-induced temperature variations than rice. However, projected winter/wheat seasonal rainfall increments were satisfactorily higher to compensate for the elevated wheat CWRs; but predicted increments in summer/rice seasonal rainfalls were not enough to complement change rate of the rice CWRs. Thus, predicted wheat IWRs displayed a marginal and rice IWRs displayed a substantial rise. This suggested that future wheat production might withstand the climatic influences by end of the 2030s, but would not sustain the 2060s climatic conditions; whereas, the rice might not be able to bear the future climate-change impacts even by end of the 2030s. In conclusion, the temperature during the winter season and rainfall during the summer season were important climate variables controlling water requirements and crop production in the study area.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.133-142
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• 2015

The purpose of this study was to compare the results of climate change prospect and vulnerability assessment and the awareness of those by public officials and citizens at Yeongwol county, Gangwon province where experiencing the most climate change vulnerability. Data of 12 meteorological categories such as mean temperature at Yeongwol weather station from 1995 to 2013 were analyzed. Climate change vulnerability was assessed with 29 sub-categories in 6 categories (health, emergency/disaster, agriculture, forestry, water management, ecosystem) of National Institute of Environment Research's LCCGIS (2013). The awareness of climate change and its vulnerability was surveyed with 154 citizens and 130 officials at Yeoungwol county. The climate change prospect and its vulnerability was similar to the actual climate change effect. However, the awareness of climate change was different between some officials and citizens. The results of this study would be base data for the Yeoungwol county's future climate change adaptation poicy making.

• 생태와환경
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.42-50
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• 2016

본 연구는 기후변화에 대응하기 위해서 국립공원의 관리방향을 설정하고, 이에 따른 정책을 수립하기 위한 기초 자료를 제공하는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해서 국립환경과학원에서 개발한 기후변화 취약성 평가 도구인 LCCGIS 프로그램의 취약성 대용변수 24개를 이용하여 현재와 미래의 국립공원의 기후변화 취약성을 분석하였다. 국립공원의 기후변화 취약성에 대한 현황과 미래전망을 분석하고 평가하기 위하여 기후노출의 대용변수는 기후변화 시나리오 (RCP 8.5)를 적용하여 $1km{\times}1km$ 격자 단위의 GIS 공간주제도를 제작하여 값을 추출하고, 민감도 및 적응 능력의 대용변수의 값은 국립공원 기본 통계값을 이용하여 추출하였다. 3개의 취약성 평가항목의 값은 현재 (2010년대)와 미래 (2050년대)에 대해서 추출하였으며, 미래 예측 시나리오가 없는 민감도 및 적응 능력과 관련된 대용변수는 현재 상태가 지속된다는 가정 아래 현재의 값을 미래에도 동일하게 적용하였다. 현재 (2010년대) 기후노출은 설악산, 오대산, 지리산, 치악산국립공원이 상대적으로 크고, 미래 (2050년대)에는 지리산, 오대산, 설악산, 한려해상이 클 것으로 예상되었다. 특히, 폭염의 변화가 가장 큰 공원은 월출산국립공원이고 가뭄이 크게 변하는 공원은 계룡산국립공원이며, 월악산국립공원이 폭우의 변화가 가장 클 것으로 나타났다. 국립공원 기후변화 민감도는 지리산국립공원이 가장 민감하고 적응 능력도 가장 높게 평가되었다. 민감도가 가장 낮은 곳은 가야산국립공원이고, 적응 능력은 치악산국립공원이 가장 낮았다. 기후변화 취약성은 설악산, 오대산, 치악산, 덕유산, 한려해상국립공원이 현재시기에 높게 평가되었고, 미래 취약성의 변화가 큰 공원은 지리산, 월악산, 치악산, 소백산국립공원 순으로 전망되었다. 전반적으로, 국립공원의 기후변화 취약성을 평가하는 항목인 기후노출, 민감도, 그리고 적응 능력은 국립공원의 지역적인 기후환경에 따라서 상대적으로 차이가 나타나기 때문에 전 공원을 대상으로 획일적인 적응대책을 수립하기보다는 국립공원의 지역적인 기후환경 특성을 반영한 적응대책 마련이 필요할 것이다. 국립공원을 대상으로 기후노출, 민감도 및 적응 능력의 대용변수를 이용하여 기후변화 취약성을 평가한 본 연구의 결과는 국립공원의 지역적인 기후환경 특성을 고려한 기후변화 적응대책을 수립하는 데 기초자료로서 활용될 것으로 기대된다. 하지만 국립공원의 기후변화 취약성 평가와 관련된 연구가 거의 없는 실정에서 LCCGIS프로그램 상에서 제시되는 대용변수만을 사용하여 분석하였기 때문에, 국립공원의 전반적인 환경을 제대로 반영하지 못할 수 있다. 향후 연구에서는 국립공원의 기후변화 취약성을 평가하기 위하여 보다 적합한 대용변수의 객관적인 검토와 함께 가중치 설정에 대한 연구가 진행될 필요가 있다.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2014년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.138-141
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• 2014

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2015

The purpose of this paper is to develop a software tool, PGA-CC (Projection of hydrology via Grid-based Assessment for Climate Change) to evaluate the present hydrologic cycle and the future watershed hydrology by climate change. PGA-CC is composed of grid-based input data pre-processing module, hydrologic cycle calculation module, output analysis module, and output data post-processing module. The grid-based hydrological model was coded by Fortran and compiled using Compaq Fortran 6.6c, and the Graphic User Interface was developed by using Visual C#. Other most elements viz. Table and Graph, and GIS functions were implemented by MapWindow. The applicability of PGA-CC was tested by assessing the future hydrology of South Korea by HadCM3 SRES B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. For the whole country, the tool successfully assessed the future hydrological components including input data and evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, base flow etc. From the spatial outputs, we could understand the hydrological changes both seasonally and regionally.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.29-39
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• 2014

This study examines the future variability of surface wind speed and solar radiation based on climate change scenario over the Korean Peninsula. Climate change scenarios used in this study are RCP 4.5 and 8.5 with a 12.5 km horizontal resolution. Climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5 reproduce the general features of wind speed over the Korean Peninsula, such as strong wind speed during spring and winter and weak wind speed during summer. When compared with the values of wind speed and solar radiation of the future, they are expected to decrease current wind and solar resource map. Comparing the resource maps using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, wind speed and solar radiation decrease with increasing greenhouse gas concentration. Meteorological resource maps of future wind and solar radiation should be improved with high resolution for the industrial application.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

Climate change lead to environmental pollution caused by the radical economic growth and development of industry. The amount of damage from abnormal climate is increasing rapidly for this reason in Korea. In particular, the cities is a lot of carbon emission quantity from the radical growth. Thus the government present "low carbon green growth" for eco-friendly city planning. As one of the important factors effecting climate change, active researches on land use change is performed. In this study, we knew land use change of each scenarios using land use equilibrium model which is kind of predictive model of land use in Japan. First, we selected study area to Jeju lsland. For this study, indicators for input data were selected and spatial data for input data were established using GIS program. Second, we established future scenarios based in 2040s. There are 2 future scenarios: dispersion scenario, compact scenario. Third, we compared with residential area of current and residential area for future scenarios. Results showed that residential area of the difference between current and dispersion scenario were 1,230 ha and residential area of the difference between current and compact scenario were 1,515 ha. Finally, for comparing carbon dioxide absorption volume between dispersion scenarios and compact scenarios, we calculated carbon dioxide absorption volume according to residential area decreased of each future scenarios. Results showed that carbon dioxide absorption volume in dispersion scenario was 477,878 ton and carbon dioxide absorption volume in compact scenario was 588,606 ton. Therefore, the study showed that land use equilibrium model is expected to put to use for future enhancement in creating data for climate change stabilization. And it is also expected to be utilized for city planning research in Korea.

• 대기
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2005

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) introduced the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) to support the developing countries in order to help to make adaptation policy and strategy to climate change. This study provides the summary of the APF and will help for preparing policy regarding the impact of climate change and its adaptation. APF consists of five basic and two cross-cutting steps. Five basic steps are made of (a) defining project scope and design, (b) assessing current vulnerability and adaptation, (c) assessing future climate-related risks, (d) developing an adaptation strategy, and (e) continuing the adaptation process. Cross-cutting steps consist of engaging stakeholder and enhancing adaptive capacity. The project scope and design process includes four major tasks: scope the project and define its objectives, establish the project team, review and synthesize existing information on vulnerability and adaptation, and design the APF project. The main purpose of assessing current vulnerability and adaptation is to understand the characteristics of current climate-related vulnerability in priority systems and the scope of adaptive responses. Future climate-related risks are assessed in order to characterize future climate-related risks, so that adaptation policies and measures can be designed to reduce the system's exposure to future climate hazard. In developing an adaptation strategy, all of the preceding APF-related work is synthesized into a well-considered strategy that can direct real adaptation action. Continuing the adaptation process is in order to implement and sustain the APF-strategy, polices, and measure. The purpose of involvement of stakeholders is to communicate between individuals and groups about projects. Finally, enhancing adaptive capacity provides guidance on how adaptive capacity can be assessed and enhanced.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제64권5호
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• pp.53-65
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• 2022

Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is small and the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-do was reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climate scenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The flood vulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weather stations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the flood vulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the past period (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17 E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.32-32
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• 2023

Incidences of urban flood and extreme heat waves (due to the urban heat island effect) are expected to increase in New Zealand under future climate change (IPCC 2022; MfE 2020). Increasingly, the mitigation of such events will depend on the resilience of a range Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) used in Sustainable Urban Drainage Schemes (SUDS), or Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Jamei and Tapper 2019; Johnson et al 2021). Understanding the impact of changing precipitation and temperature regimes due climate change is therefore critical to the long-term resilience of such urban infrastructure and design. Cuthbert et al (2022) have assessed the trade-offs between the water retention and cooling benefits of different urban greening methods (such as WSUD) relative to global location and climate. Using the Budyko water-energy balance framework (Budyko 1974), they demonstrated that the potential for water infiltration and storage (thus flood mitigation) was greater where potential evaporation is high relative to precipitation. Similarly, they found that the potential for mitigation of drought conditions was greater in cooler environments. Subsequently, Jaramillo et al. (2022) have illustrated the locations worldwide that will deviate from their current Budyko curve characteristic under climate change scenarios, as the relationship between actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) changes relative to precipitation. Using the above approach we assess the impact of future climate change on the urban water-energy balance in three contrasting New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Invercargill). The variation in Budyko curve characteristics is then used to describe expected changes in water storage and cooling potential in each urban area as a result of climate change. The implications of the results are then considered with respect to existing WSUD guidelines according to both the current and future climate in each location. It was concluded that calculation of Budyko curve deviation due to climate change could be calculated for any location and land-use type combination in New Zealand and could therefore be used to advance the general understanding of climate change impacts. Moreover, the approach could be used to better define the concept of urban infrastructure resilience and contribute to a better understanding of Budyko curve dynamics under climate change (questions raised by Berghuijs et al 2020)). Whilst this knowledge will assist in implementation of national climate change adaptation (MfE, 2022; UNEP, 2022) and improve climate resilience in urban areas in New Zealand, the approach could be repeated for any global location for which present and future mean precipitation and temperature conditions are known.