• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.34 no.7
• /
• pp.587-594
• /
• 2010

The positive and negative opinion to cargo demand of Incheon's SAMT in the near future remains cloudy. Considering port and shipping environmental changes and the logistics situation of China which explains the lack of facilities in Chinese airports, the creating of SAMT cargoes of the Incheon region could catches a favorable opportunity to be a logistics hub in the North-East Asia. On the other hand, as open-sky policy and direct-call service has been carried out between China and N.A.(North America), Incheon could cause a loss of competitiveness in SAMT because the enhancement in the aspect of the connectivity of Chinese airlines and shipping lines makes customer sent to last destination their cargoes whenever they want. In the same context, this paper analyses on conditions of domestic and international SAMT and proposes in this uncertainty future forecasting of SAMT of Incheon by scenario planning according to changes in integrated SAMT, measuring the likelihood of final scenario. This study shows the Sea & Air multi-transport volume will have either slight increase or decrease from the current condition. Consequently, RFS expansion and system & service improvement through strong ties with major cities in China will be required in a short run aspect. Nonetheless, we also need to take domestic & international transportation environment into account in the long run.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.133-144
• /
• 2020

Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.55 no.4
• /
• pp.73-82
• /
• 2013

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
• /
• v.33 no.3
• /
• pp.163-172
• /
• 2015

This study examined the potential effects of urban growth on streamflow in the Gyungan River watershed, Korea, using urban containment scenarios. First, two scenarios (conservation and development) were established, and SLEUTH model was adapted to predict urban growth into the year 2060 with 20 years interval under two scenarios in the study area. Urban growth was larger under scenario 2, focusing on development, than under scenario 1, focusing on conservation. Most urban growth was predicted to involve the conversion of farmland, forest, and grasslands to urban areas. Streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Although urban growth had a small effect on streamflow, urban growth may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by other factor, such as climate change. This results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future water resource and can aid in urban containment planning to mitigate the negative effects of urban growth in the study area.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2004.08a
• /
• pp.1153-1157
• /
• 2004

The report of the Korean National Statistics Office shows that Korea has been emerging as an elderly society rapidly, and it will burden the Korean society with excessive social welfare cost for the aged in the near future. If we can help the aged to live healthy in some ways, the social burden for the health care of the aged will be lessened. In order to help physical and mental health of the elderly person, we have developed an exercise apparatus called intelligent arm wrestling machine system. This paper presents the mechanism and scenario of the proposed intelligent arm wrestling machine system. The proposed mechanism and scenario are peculiar. In particular, the proposed scenario determines randomly who will win between the man and the robot and generates a game process that the arm-wrestler cannot predict in advance.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.16 no.6
• /
• pp.129-136
• /
• 2014

PURPOSES : This study devotes its energies to estimate greenhouse gas emissions for types of horizontal highway designs. METHODS : This paper suggested two types of road scenarios, scenario 1 is made by the lack of road design consistency. Beside scenario 1, scenario 2 is made by good road design. For comparisons of greenhouse gas emissions, driving simulator was used. RESULTS : Emission rates of road scenario 1 are 1.4 times higher than scenario 2 in the driving simulator. CONCLUSIONS : This study may have important implications for contributing to the application of road alignment technology for reduction of greenhouse gases as quantifying the correlations between greenhouse emissions and various road alignments. Consequently, this study will help road designers determine which roads are best alternatives in the process of choosing the roads in the future in terms of environmental benefits.

• Archives of design research
• /
• v.16 no.2
• /
• pp.35-48
• /
• 2003

Home networking technology connects individual home appliances through a wired or wireless network and makes possible new functions that were impossible when they were used independently. However, the new functions must not simply be confusing arrays of functions that are possible to implement, but those absolutely necessary to the users. To develop innovative information appliances with such functions, scenarios were used and played guiding roles in suggesting new product ideas, making design mockups, and producing videos to show natural situations where the products would be used in home of the future. In the phase of suggesting new product ideas, user action scenarios in the home, generated by a team consisting of experts in the fields of cognitive engineering, user interface, computer science, cultural anthropology, interaction design, and product design, helped the team identify user needs and design factors necessary to fulfill those needs and suggest new product ideas from the design factors. In the phase of making design mockups, the procedures of using the products were described in the scenario format. Based on the scenarios the s쇼les and the user interfaces of them were designed. In the phase of producing videos, the interactions between the user and the product were embodied in the course of professional writers'arranging the scenarios of using the products for the scripts of the videos. Videos were produced to show the actual situations where the design mockups would be used in home of the future and the dynamic aspects of interaction design.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.1-27
• /
• 2022

In recent years, the autonomous vehicle industry has changed drastically. So the needs and interests in predicting future technologies and market prospects of the autonomous vehicle field have been very increased. However, considering the characteristics of the automotive industry, which has various factors, complex correlation of them and big influence on each other, the study of systematic future forecasting methodologies are urgent and necessary which are applicable to autonomous vehicle industry. In this research, the two methods such as "Field Anomaly Relaxation" and "Multiple Perspective Concept" were analyzed and chosen, which are suitable to automotive industry. By the combination of two methods this research developed and examined the three future scenarios related to core technologies and industry trends. And these scenarios feasibility was verified by experts and evaluation checklist. This research has a contribution that this future scenario forecasting approach can be applied to the industries which have various volatility like the autonomous vehicle industry.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.18 no.6
• /
• pp.333-341
• /
• 2018

Recently, there has been a growing interest in user-centered smart city services. This study examines the spatial information type to derive a smart city service scenario through space - based communication and aims to establish a direction for user - centered experience factor scenario. The results of this study are meaningful for presenting basic data to suggest a space scenario where citizens can experience smart city as walking map and experience route applicable to future smart city test bed. In particular, we simulated the walking scenarios in the smart city test bed through Walking Map, which is tested the service direction based on user requirements. Through this study, we confirmed that smart city service through existing infrastructure can be used multipurpose. The spatial information and the experience factor linkage model and the walking map through the persona model presented in this study can be utilized as a preliminary scenario applicable to the future smart city test bed.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
• /
• v.21 no.2
• /
• pp.107-116
• /
• 2013

This study is intended to predict variations in future land use/land cover(LULC) based on the representation concentration pathway(RCP) storyline that is a new climate change scenario and to analyze how future climate and LULC changes under RCP scenario affects streamflow in the basin. This study used climate data under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and LULC change scenario is created by a model that is developed using storyline of RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and logistic regression(LR). Two scenarios(climate change only and LULC change only) were established. The streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model. Each scenario showed a significant seasonal variations in streamflow. Climate change showed that it reduced streamflow in summer and autumn while it increased streamflow in spring and winter. Although LULC change little affected streamflow in the basin, the pattern for increasing and decreasing streamflow during wet and dry climate condition was significant. Therefore, it's believed that sustainable water resource policies for flood and drought depending on future LULC are required.