Journal of Technology Innovation (기술혁신연구)

Korea Society for Innovation Managemetn & Economics (기술경영경제학회)
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A study of future scenario forecasting of autonomous vehicle industry

자율주행 자동차 산업의 미래 시나리오 예측 연구

  • 주백수 (한양대학교 기술경영전문대학원) ;
  • 김지은 (한양대학교 기술경영전문대학원)
  • Received : 2021.09.28
  • Accepted : 2022.04.18
  • Published : 2022.05.31
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Abstract

In recent years, the autonomous vehicle industry has changed drastically. So the needs and interests in predicting future technologies and market prospects of the autonomous vehicle field have been very increased. However, considering the characteristics of the automotive industry, which has various factors, complex correlation of them and big influence on each other, the study of systematic future forecasting methodologies are urgent and necessary which are applicable to autonomous vehicle industry. In this research, the two methods such as "Field Anomaly Relaxation" and "Multiple Perspective Concept" were analyzed and chosen, which are suitable to automotive industry. By the combination of two methods this research developed and examined the three future scenarios related to core technologies and industry trends. And these scenarios feasibility was verified by experts and evaluation checklist. This research has a contribution that this future scenario forecasting approach can be applied to the industries which have various volatility like the autonomous vehicle industry.

최근 급격한 변화를 겪고 있는 자율주행 자동차 분야의 미래 기술 및 시장 전망 예측에 대한 요구와 관심이 집중되고 있다. 자동차 산업의 특성상, 복합적 요인의 상관관계가 미치는 영향력이 크고 요인 간의 복잡도가 높으므로, 체계적인 미래 예측 방법론 적용을 통한 미래 전망분석 및 전략 수립이 시급하다. 본 연구에서는 자동차 분야에 적합한 미래 예측 방법론 중 필드 변칙 완화기법(Field Anomaly Relaxation)과 다중관점 개념 기법(Multiple Perspective Concept)을 복합적으로 적용하여, 자율주행 자동차 분야의 핵심기술 및 산업 동향에 관한 미래 시나리오들을 개발하여 실증하였다. 도출된 3개의 시나리오는 전문가 평가 체크리스트를 통하여 타당성을 검증하였다. 본 연구 결과는 자율주행 자동차 산업과 같은 다양한 변동성이 존재하는 분야의 미래 예측 방법 중 한 가지로 적용될 수 있다는 점에 의의가 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 한양대학교 교내 연구지원 사업으로 연구되었음 (HY-202100000003512)

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