• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.21-28
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• 2018

In recent years, payability of shale gas production has worsened due to oil and gas price declines resulting from sharply increasing shale gas production. Reliable economic evaluation in shale gas development has become important. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation of probabilistic analysis technique was applied to analyze the economic feasibility considering the uncertainty involved in shale gas development. For this, the range of major variables is set and a random number is generated to derive the probability distribution of Net Present Value(NPV) and Internal Rate of Return(IRR). Consequently, we estimated the probability that the feasibility of the project is evaluated to be positive when developing shale gas in the study area. In addition, sensitivity analysis of major parameters affecting economic efficiency in shale gas development was carried out, and the effect of major variables in economic evaluation for commercial production was identified. In the future, this study could be used to make decision for shale gas production by presenting the range of variation of economic index and probability value.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.481-506
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• 2009

The purpose of the present research was to examine whether the attention mechanism employs physical or represented location of the cue and target. To achieve this, we have employed the paradigm of facilitation of response as well as inhibition of return. In the experiments, valid and invalid conditions were defined by the position consistency of the cue and the target in the aspect of either physical or represented location. We used auditory cue and visual target in Experiment 1 while visual cue and auditory target in Experiment 2. As a results, in Experiment 1, effect of facilitation of response in valid condition was found when the valid/invalid conditions were defined in the aspect of represented location. In Experiment 2, effect of facilitation of response in valid condition was found when the valid/invalid conditions were defined in the aspect of represented location. In all the other conditions, no effect was found when the conditions were defined in the aspect of physical location. No effects of inhibition of return were found in Experiment 2. These results imply the possibility that attention mechanism operates based on objects' represented location rather than on their physical location. More importantly, the present research suggests that it is necessary to separate represented location from physical location of the target and the cue in the experiment of facilitation of response and inhibition of return in the future.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.79-93
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• 2019

This study analyzed the information effect of KOSPI200 market and KOSPI200 futures market and volume synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN). The data period is 760 days from July 8, 2015 to August 9, 2018, and the intraday trading data is used based on the trading period of the KOSPI 200 Index. The findings of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of regression analysis of the same parallax, when the level of VPIN is high, the return and volatility of KOSPI200 are high. Second, the KOSPI200 returns before and after the VPIN measurement and the return of the KOSPI200 future had a positive relationship with the VPIN. The cumulative returns of KOSPI200 futures were positive for about 15 minutes.Finally, we find that portfolios with high levels of VPIN showed high KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures return. These results confirmed the applicability of VPIN as a trading strategy index. The above results suggest that KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures markets will be able to explore volatility and price changes, and also be useful indicators of financial market risk.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.75-92
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• 2020

In most cases of the water balance analysis, the return flow ratio for each water supply was uniformly determined and applied, so it has been contained a problem that the volume of available water would be incorrectly calculated. Therefore, sewage and wastewater among the return water were focused in this study and the data-driven model was developed to forecast the outflow from the sewage treatment plant. The forecasting results of LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GRU (Gated Recurrent Units), and SVR (Support Vector Regression) models, which are mainly used for forecasting the time series data in most fields, were compared with the observed data to determine the optimal model parameters for forecasting outflow. As a result of applying the model, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the GRU model was smaller than those of the LSTM and SVR models, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) was higher than those of others. Thus, it was judged that the GRU model could be the optimal model for forecasting the outflow in sewage treatment plants. However, the forecasting outflow tends to be underestimated and overestimated in extreme sections. Therefore, the additional data for extreme events and reducing the minimum time unit of input data were necessary to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. If the water use of the target site was reviewed and the additional parameters that could reflect seasonal effects were considered, more accurate outflow could be forecasted to be ready for climate variability in near future. And it is expected to use as fundamental resources for establishing a reasonable river water management system based on the forecasting results.

• Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.63-83
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• 2002

This study is to survey the materials purchasing and inventory management status and the characteristics and opinions of the staff in charge of purchasing and inventory of the general hospitals in Busan area in order to contribute to the rationalization of its management through the grasp of actual situation and the presentation of desirable improvement plan for the materials purchasing and inventory management. The status of medical institute had been surveyed by the purchasing/ administration managers of total 26 general hospitals, and the purchasing/ management questionnaires had been commenced with 86 staff of the 26 hospitals. Its major survey results, after the analysis of 24 medical institute statuses (return rate of 92.30%) and 60 staff questionnaires (return rate of 69.76%), are as follows. First, post-purchasing evaluation system is not used actively, orders are being placed by phone or fax, and general merchandise is being purchased through free contracts in most of the hospitals participated in the survey. Second, as per the materials supplying methods, the requisition and delivery system is currently the most popular in the hospitals surveyed, however, both the requisition and delivery system and the par level transfer system are the most desired in the hospitals of more than 500 beds, and the par level transfer system is the most desired in the hospitals under 500 beds for the materials supplying system in the future. Third, as per the inventory management system that is desired the most in the future, the SPD and JIT types are preferred in the hospitals of more than 500 beds, the stockless strategy is preferred in the hospitals under 500 beds, the senior staff above section chief grade prefer the stockless strategy, and the junior staff prefer the ABC classification and SPD types. Fourth, The necessity of purchasing staff's training for the materials management is highly recognized but the effectiveness is not so much acknowledged, which is because such a training is thought to be so superficial and formal that it is not helpful much in the actual field. When summarizing the survey results as above, the materials purchasing and management system is differed for each group of hospitals according to the size of beds, and the more scientific management system is largely required by the general hospitals in Busan city. They also hope the introduction of joint purchasing system, materials management by the bar-code system, and positive execution of the market survey and training of the relevant staff for the management of purchasing affairs. So the more systematic purchasing and inventory management is regarded to be necessary through the introduction of scientific and specialized education of materials management, market survey, and post-purchasing evaluation system also through the computerization of materials purchasing and inventory management as soon as possible.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.135-144
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• 2017

This study is to identify the growth rate and volatility of logistics related firms in the stock market. To do this, we used monthly data for 197 years from June 2000 to October 2016 by selecting KOSPI and Transport & Storage(T&S), KOSDAQ, Transportation(TRANS) index. The purpose of this study is to compare the T&S and TRANS stock index returns with the KOSPI and KOSDAQ index. And we are to judge whether the development potential of the logistics industry and the value of the investment of related companies in the future is high. For this purpose, we will analyze the basic statistics, correlation and growth rate of each index, and compare T&S and TRANS with market returns. Analysis result, for the past 197 months logistics related T&S and TRANS have been higher than market returns. The correlation was highly related to TRANS and T & S in KOSPI, but it was not related to KOSDAQ. TRANS represents high risk and high return, while KOSDAQ represents high risk and low return market. TRANS is considered to be an efficient investment. We expect the future development of logistics related industries and T & S and TRANS to show a high rate of increase compared to the market returns.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.333-342
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• 2022

Due to climate change, increased heavy rainfalls result in flood damage every year. To investigate the storm-runoff reduction effects of Low Impact Development (LID), this study performed runoff analyses using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for past and future representative storm events of the Yongdu Rainwater Pumping Station basin. As a result, the infiltration loss for representative future rainfalls increased by 3.17 %, and the surface runoff and peak runoff rate increased significantly by 32.50 %, and 128.77 %, respectively. To reduce the increased surface runoff and peak runoff rates, this study investigated the applicability of LID approaches, including a permeable pavement, green roof, and rain garden, by adjusting the LID parameters and the ratio of installation area. We identified the ranges of LID parameters that decreased peak runoff rate and surface runoff, and increased infiltration. In addition, when the application ratio of permeable pavement, green roof, and rain garden was 2:1:3, best performance was attained, leading to a reduction of peak runoff of 26.85 %, infiltration loss 12.01 %, surface runoff 15.11 %, and storage 509.47 %. Based on analyzing the effect of storm runoff reductions for various return periods, it was found that as the return period increased, the proportion of peak runoff and surface runoff increased and the proportion of infiltration loss and storage decreased.

• 한국산학경영학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.101-123
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• 2004

This study examines empirically the significant changes in tax payments when the consolidated tax return is introduced in the future. We estimate the consolidated tax payments under the eight cases which are classified as such : whether only 100% ownership subsidiaries should be included or 80% and over, whether all subsidiaries should be included or only subsidiaries with loss, and whether unrealized profits from intercompany transactions should be excluded or not. After estimating the consolidated tax payments, we test the difference between the consolidated tax payments and the sum of the individual tax payments of the subsidiaries. The results of the test show that the consolidated tax payments are significantly less than the sum of the individual tax payments of the subsidiaries. We interpret that the inclusion of the losses of the subsidiaries in the consolidated tax base makes the tax payment decrease. Based on our analysis about 3.8 billion Won per each parent company would decrease due to the introduction of the consolidated tax return. And we find that under the mandatory consolidated tax return system the significant difference between the consolidated and individual tax payment exists except that the only 100% ownership subsidiaries are included and unrealized profits from intercompany transactions are not excluded. However, when the parent companies have the discretion to select the consolidated subsidiaries, the consolidated tax payments are significantly less than the sum of the individual tax payments of the subsidiaries regardless of the ownership percentage, inclusion of the loss of the subsidiaries and exclusion of the unrealized profits.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.67-90
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• 2016

This study examines whether there is any significant relation between executive compensation and future firm performance for the Korean export manufacturing small and medium-sized firms. We sorted the whole sample firms into the sub-groups of 10 deciles by firm size and the KSIC standard. We found the following empirical results. First, Korean export manufacturing small and medium-sized firms typically showed lower or even negative profitability in terms of return on equity and operating profit ratio to sales. Foreign equity ownership is very low with an average of 3.77%. Second, for the firms with higher ratio of excess executive compensation to asset had lower future firm performance. It implies that the typical owner-manager in Korean export manufacturing SMEs earns excess pay, but do not contribute much to firm performance. Third, as for future cumulative abnormal returns for future one- and three-year periods, firms with higher owner-executive pay had lower returns compared with firms with lower pay. So the stock market investors set a lower value on them. Fourth, there is a positive relation between excess executive pay and executive overconfidence, and it implies that owner-CEOs with higher pay may become overconfident, thereby lowering future firm performance somehow.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2012

Data mining is the process of searching and analyzing large quantities of data for finding out meaningful patterns and rules. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the tools of data mining which is becoming very popular in forecasting the future values. Some of the areas where it is used are banking, medicine, retailing and fraud detection. In finance, artificial neural network is used in various disciplines including stock market forecasting. In the stock market time series, due to high volatility, it is very important to choose a model which reads volatility and forecasts the future values considering volatility as one of the major attributes for forecasting. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop two models - one using feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and the other using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) technique for forecasting stock market returns. Various parameters which are considered for the design of optimal ANN model development are input and output data normalization, transfer function and neuron/s at input, hidden and output layers, number of hidden layers, values with respect to momentum, learning rate and error tolerance. Simulations have been done using prices of daily close of Sensex. Stock market returns are chosen as input data and output is the forecasted return. Simulations of the Model have been done using MATLAB$^{(R)}$ 6.1.0.450 and EViews 4.1. Convergence and performance of models have been evaluated on the basis of the simulation results. Performance evaluation is done on the basis of the errors calculated between the actual and predicted values.