• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Energy Demand

검색결과 285건 처리시간 0.025초

GCAM을 이용한 국내 수송부문 모델링 (Modeling Domestic Transportation Sector Using Global Change Assessment Model)

  • 전승호;김수덕
    • 대한교통학회지
    • /
    • 제35권2호
    • /
    • pp.91-104
    • /
    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 통합모형인 GCAM을 활용한 국내수송부문을 모델링에 대해 논의한다. GCAM은 IPCC 5차 보고서 평가에도 활용된, 국제적으로 널리 쓰이는 모형이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 이를 국내수송부문에 그대로 적용하는 데 상당한 문제가 있다. 첫째, GCAM의 기준년도(2010년) 수송 서비스수요가 국가통계와 일치하지 않다는 점. 둘째, 수송부문 시뮬레이션 결과가 관련 부문별 서비스수요의 과거추이를 제대로 반영하고 못하고 있다는 점이다. GCAM을 활용한 국내 수송부문 모델링에서 가장 중요하게 영향을 미치는 수송서비스수요 항등식을 상세히 점검함으로써, 기준년도의 서비스수요를 국가통계와 일치시키도록 노력하였다. 또 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과가 과거 통계추이를 제대로 반영할 수 있도록 기존모형을 점검, 수정하였다. 점검 및 수정결과, 기존 GCAM의 시뮬레이션 결과와 어떤 부분에서 문제가 있는지, 또 수송부문별 과거 서비스 수요의 추이가 어떻게 제대로 반영되고 있는지를 상세히 보고하였다. 본 연구는 향후 수송부문의 정책, 기술평가 및 온실가스저감 대책 마련 등을 위한 시나리오 분석의 기본분석도구로 유용하게 쓰일 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

한국의 산림바이오매스에너지 중장기 수요-공급전망과 화석연료 대체효과 분석 (Mid- and Long-term Forecast of Forest Biomass Energy in South Korea, and Analysis of the Alternative Effects of Fossil Fuel)

  • 이승록;한희;장윤성;정한섭;이수민;한규성
    • 신재생에너지
    • /
    • 제18권3호
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study analyzed the anticipated supply-and-demand of forest biomass energy (through wood pellets) until 2050, in South Korea. Comparing the utilization rates of forest resources of five countries (United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, Japan, and S. Korea), it was found that S. Korea does not nearly utilize its forest resources for energy purposes. The total demand for wood pellets in S. Korea (based on a power generation efficiency of 38%) was predicted to be 3,629 and 4,371 thousand tons in 2034 and 2050, respectively. The anticipated total wood pellet power generation ratio to target power consumption is 1.13% (5,745 GWh), 1.17% (6,336 GWh), and 1.25% (7,631 GWh) in 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. Low value-added forest residues left unattended in forests are called "Unused Forest Biomass" in S. Korea. From the analysis, the total annual potential amount of raw material, sustainably collectible amount, and available amount of wood pellet in 2050 were estimated to be 6,877, 4,814, and 3,370 thousand tons, respectively. The rate of contribution to Nationally Determined Contributions was up to 0.64%. Through this study, the authors found that forest biomass energy will contribute to a carbon neutral society in the near future at the national level.

전국 중학교 시설의 에너지 사용실태 분석 연구 (A Study on Analysis of Energy Consumption of the Middle School Facilities in Korea)

  • 윤종호;신우철;조진일;박재완;김효중
    • KIEAE Journal
    • /
    • 제10권4호
    • /
    • pp.45-50
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study for middle school facilities is second following the study of the energy consumption of primary school facilities. There is not on the analysis of the current energy usage for middle school facilities in nations to set goals of energy reduction. Therefore, The purpose of this study is to present various analysis result of energy consumption which is a statistical analysis of domestic middle school facilities in South Korea. As a consequence, each average energy consumption at the domestic middle school facilities analyzed as following after changing as unit 'kWh' only for comparison with every energy source. It represents that the energy consumption of electric power was 183.7MWh(70.2%), gas consumption for heating was 46.5MWh(17.8%), oil consumption was 26.5MWh(10.1%), district energy was 5.1MWh(1.9%). This result describes that consumption of electric power was large greatly and it reflects the expectation that it will climb the demand regarding this energy in the future. In additionally, it analyzed average energy consumption with $74.4kWh/m^2$ by the unit area of air-conditioning and the district which has large energy consumption was Seoul with $91.6kWh/m^2$.

신재생에너지원을 고려한 집단에너지 경제성평가 방법론에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Method about the Economic Feasibility Estimation Considering Renewable Energy)

  • 신혜경;최영준;최인선
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.372-374
    • /
    • 2008
  • Korea classified into a development country when UNFCCC was concluded in 1995. So Korea doesn't have a GHG reduction duty until 2012. As the UNFCCC is strengthened, recently there is a growing interest in renewable energy and energy usage efficiency improvement for reducing GHG emission. It is associated with CES and renewable energy. CES is a total energy (heat, cooling and power)supplier in aggregated demand zone like a hotel, building, hospital and redevelopment district using CHP and it improves energy usage efficiency. At present, renewable energy is needed for GHG reduction duty but renewable energy doesn't have economic feasibility. So renewable energy is needed various support system to popularize which is a FIT and RPS. Especially RPS is carrying out instead of FIT in many advanced country and it will be inroduced in Korea. RPS is a duty which electricity service provider must guarantee renewable energy as much as specific ratio of total capacity. Therefore this study conducts an economic feasibility estimation of CES considering renewable energy when RPS will introduced in the future.

  • PDF

물의 전기분해에 의한 수소 제조기술과 경제성 분석 (Economic analysis of hydrogen production technology using water electrolysis)

  • 심규성;김창희;박기배
    • 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
    • /
    • 제15권4호
    • /
    • pp.324-332
    • /
    • 2004
  • According to the rapid depletion of the fossil fuels, the electricity and hydrogen will gradually take charge of the future energy supply. Especially, in order to control the supply and demand of electricity, energy storage medium is necessary and this could be solved by the combination of water electrolysis and fuel cell. Although electricity can be generated from such alternative energies as hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind-power resources, alternative energy storage medium is also required since regenerative energies, solar and wind-powers, are intermittent energy resources. In this regard, hydrogen production from water electrolysis was recognized as a superb method for electricity storage. In this work, the current development and economic status of alkaline, solid polymer, and high temperature electrolysis were reviewed, and then the practical use of water electrolysis technology were discussed.

지구 에너지저장광물 국내외 연구동향 및 전망 (Trends and Prospects of Domestic and Overseas Studies on Earth Energy Storage Minerals)

  • 김정민;김성용;안은영;배준희;이재욱
    • 한국지구과학회지
    • /
    • 제41권5호
    • /
    • pp.437-446
    • /
    • 2020
  • 전기차, 에너지저장시스템의 수요급증으로 에너지 저장장치에 대한 관심이 세계적으로 증가해 왔다. 에너지 저장장치의 핵심원료인 리튬과 바나듐 등과 같은 에너지저장광물 자원을 안정적으로 공급하기 위하여 새로운 기술적 대안이 필요하다. 이미 리튬과 바나듐을 직접 확보할 수 있는 기술에 대한 여러 국가들의 연구개발 활동이 이루어지고 있다. 이에 따라 효과적인 연구개발 전략을 수립하기 위해서 특허 및 논문 분석을 통해 각 국의 기술동향을 분석하고 향후 기술발전방향을 설정하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구는 1970년부터 2019년 10월까지 출원 공개 또는 출원 등록된 한국, 미국, 유럽, 일본의 특허자료와 2000년 1월부터 2019년 10월까지의 논문을 대상 검색된 자료를 통해 신기술 개발동향 및 국내외 연구개발 현황을 분석하였다. 분석결과, 현재 에너지저장광물과 관련된 기술의 성장단계는 태동기 단계에 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 기술시장 선도와 기술 경쟁력 강화를 위해 새로운 기술의 개발과 개발된 기술에 대한 실증을 병행하여 빠르게 기술을 고도화 하는 전략이 필요하다고 사료된다.

Determinants of energy efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Acquah, Patience Mensah;Sun, Huaping;Alemzero, David Ajene;Li, Liang
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
    • /
    • 제5권2호
    • /
    • pp.19-44
    • /
    • 2021
  • Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is receiving increased investments in the energy sector under the belt and road initiative (BRI) project since its inception in 2013. SSA has a worse energy efficiency ratio coupled with deficient electricity access, through analysis showed varied impacts on the SSA countries due to the BRI initiative. This study dilves into the influencing factors for Energy Efficiency (EE) in 38 SSA countries, applying the probit and logit approach for 2000-2018. The Multiple-regression model shows significant results of some variables such as foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, and port infrastructure quality being significant on EE under BRI initiative countries. However, the logit and probit models produce similar results and the marginal effect for the entire variable, except energy imports that do not likely impact EE. Furthermore, the interaction of quality of port infrastructure and foreign direct investment variables produces significant results, highlighting the increased investments SSA receives under the BRI initiative in the energy and transport sectors. The model Percent correctly predicted (PCP) value was about 84%, indicating it correctly classified the variables and about 16% not classified. The study recommends EE performance standards should be incorporated on energy projects in SSA to ensure that these projects are energy efficient and decouple SSA's energy demand from economic growth. The research proffers suggestions for policy regarding the BRI initiative in SSA and the implications on sustainable energy and building a community with a shared future.

태양광모듈 생산 증설투자에 대한 의사결정: 실물옵션모형에 의한 경영유연성 가치 분석 (On Determining the Size and the Timing of the Capacity Expansion in PV Module Manufacturing: Management Flexibility in Real Options Model)

  • 김경남;선우석호
    • 신재생에너지
    • /
    • 제7권2호
    • /
    • pp.18-27
    • /
    • 2011
  • Management flexibility to adapt its future actions in response to altered future market conditions can expand the value of an investment opportunity by improving its upside potential without the change in the downside losses. Module manufacturers in solar industry continuously have to decide how much and when its production capacity should be expanded with regards to the demand in the global markets. Either over- or under-investment can cause sunk and/or opportunity costs to the module manufacturers. Option of exercising the additional investments only on favorable opportunities can increase total value of the investment. This paper analyzes the case which shows that the expansion of production capacity with more expandibility can have more value than the rigid plan of capacity expansion. The expansion option value is equivalent to KRW 38.286 billion, thus switching the negative NPV of the initial investment opportunity into the positive value. High volatility and the high growth in the cashflows as the major business features of the renewable energy provide condition where real options can play the crucial role in increasing the investment value as well as in determining the size and timing of capacity expansion in the course of capital budgeting process.

피크저감과 특례요금제를 고려한 ESS 경제성 분석 알고리즘에 관한 연구 (A Study on Economic Analysis Algorithm for Energy Storage System Considering Peak Reduction and a Special Tariff)

  • 손준호
    • 전기학회논문지
    • /
    • 제67권10호
    • /
    • pp.1278-1285
    • /
    • 2018
  • For saving electricity bill, energy storage system(ESS) is being installed in factories, public building and commercial building with a Time-of-Use(TOU) tariff which consists of demand charge(KRW/kW) and energy charge(KRW/kWh). However, both of peak reduction and ESS special tariff are not considered in an analysis of initial cost payback period(ICPP) on ESS. Since it is difficult to reflect base rate by an amount of uncertain peak demand reduction during mid-peak and on-peak periods in the future days. Therefore, the ICPP on ESS can be increased. Based on this background, this paper presents the advanced analysis method for the ICPP on ESS. In the proposed algorithm, the representative days of monthly electricity consumption pattern for the amount of peak reduction can be found by the k­means clustering algorithm. Moreover, the total expected energy costs of representative days are minimized by optimal daily ESS operation considering both peak reduction and the special tariff through a mixed-integer linear programming(MILP). And then, the amount of peak reduction becomes a value that the sum of the expected energy costs for 12 months is maximum. The annual benefit cost is decided by the amount of annual peak reduction. Two simulation cases are considered in this study, which one only considers the special tariff and another considers both of the special tariff and amount of peak reduction. The ICPP in the proposed method is shortened by 18 months compared to the conventional method.

Electricity Cost Minimization for Delay-tolerant Basestation Powered by Heterogeneous Energy Source

  • Deng, Qingyong;Li, Xueming;Li, Zhetao;Liu, Anfeng;Choi, Young-june
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • 제11권12호
    • /
    • pp.5712-5728
    • /
    • 2017
  • Recently, there are many studies, that considering green wireless cellular networks, have taken the energy consumption of the base station (BS) into consideration. In this work, we first introduce an energy consumption model of multi-mode sharing BS powered by multiple energy sources including renewable energy, local storage and power grid. Then communication load requests of the BS are transformed to energy demand queues, and battery energy level and worst-case delay constraints are considered into the virtual queue to ensure the network QoS when our objective is to minimize the long term electricity cost of BSs. Lyapunov optimization method is applied to work out the optimization objective without knowing the future information of the communication load, real-time electricity market price and renewable energy availability. Finally, linear programming is used, and the corresponding energy efficient scheduling policy is obtained. The performance analysis of our proposed online algorithm based on real-world traces demonstrates that it can greatly reduce one day's electricity cost of individual BS.