• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecast model

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A Review about the Need for Modelling Toll Road with Different Value of Travel Time (유료도로의 교통수요분석에 있어서 통행시간가치 차등화 필요성 검토)

  • Kim, Jae-Yeong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Jeong, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2009
  • Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

Determination of Optimal Hourly Water Intake Amount for H Arisu Purification Center using Linear Programming (선형계획법을 이용한 H 아리수 정수 센터 최적 취수량 결정)

  • Lee, Chulsoo;Lee, Kangwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.12
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    • pp.1051-1064
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    • 2015
  • Currently, the H purification plant determines the hourly water intake amount based on operator experience and skill. Therefore, inevitably, there are deviations among operators. While meeting time-varying demand and maintaining the proper water level in the clean water reservoir, the methodology for minimizing electricity cost, when dealing with different electricity rate time zones, is a very complicated problem, which is beyond an operator's capability. To solve this problem, a linear programming (LP) model is proposed, which can determine the optimal hourly water intake amount for minimizing the daily electricity cost. It is shown that an inaccurate estimate for the hourly water usage in the demand areas causes the water level constraint to be violated, which is the weak point of the proposed LP method. However, several examples with real-field data show that we can practically and safely solve this problem with safety margins. It is also shown that the safety margin method still works effectively whether the estimate is accurate or not. The operators need not attend the site at all times under the proposed LP method, and we can additionally expect reductions in labor costs.

Impact of IPCC RCP Scenarios on Streamflow and Sediment in the Hoeya River Basin (대표농도경로 (RCP) 시나리오에 따른 회야강 유역의 미래 유출 및 유사 변화 분석)

  • Hwang, Chang Su;Choi, Chul Uong;Choi, Ji Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.11-19
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    • 2014
  • This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

Intercomparison between Temperature and Humidity Sensors of Radiosonde by Different Manufacturers in the ESSAY (Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong) Campaign (대설관측실험(Experiment on Snow Storms At Yeongdong: ESSAY) 기간 중 두 제조사 라디오존데 기온과 습도 센서 상호 비교)

  • Seo, Won-Seok;Eun, Seung-Hee;Kim, Byung-Gon;Seong, Dae-Kyeong;Lee, Gyu-Min;Jeon, Hye-Rim;Choi, Byoung-Cheol;Ko, A-reum;Chang, Ki-Ho;Yang, Seung-Gu
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.347-356
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    • 2016
  • Radiosonde is an observation equipment that measures pressure (geopotential height), temperature, relative humidity and wind by being launched up from the ground. Radiosonde data which serves as an important element of weather forecast and research often causes a bias in a model output due to accuracy and sensitivity between the different manufacturers. Although Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA) and several institutes have conducted routine and intensive radiosonde observations, very few studies have been done before on the characteristics of radiosonde performance. Analyzing radiosonde observation data without proper understanding of the unique nature of those sensors may lead to a significant bias in the analysis of results. To evaluate performance and reliability of radiosonde, we analyzed the differences between two sensors made by the different manufacturers, which have been used in the campaign of Experiment on Snow Storm At Yeongdong (ESSAY). We improved a couple of methods to launch the balloon being attached with the sensors. Further we examined cloud-layer impacts on temperature and humidity differences for the analysis of both sensors' performance among various weather conditions, and also compared daytime and nighttime profiles to understand temporal dependence of meteorological sensors. The overall results showed that there are small but consistent biases in both temperature and humidity between different manufactured sensors, which could eventually secure reliable precisions of both sensors, irrespective of accuracy. This study would contribute to an improved sounding of atmospheric vertical states through development and improvement of the meteorological sensors.

Study on the Dextran and the Inner Structure of Jeung-Pyun (Korea Rice Cake) on Adding Oligosaccharide (올리고당 첨가 증편 발효 중 Dextran 형성과 증편의 내부구조에 관한 연구)

  • 이은아;우경자
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2002
  • This study was carried out in order to investigate dextran formation and internal structure during fermentation of the oligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun. The dextran and sugar reducing contents of Jeung-Pyun batter and the specific volume and the internal structure of Jeung-Pyun were analyzed as a function of fermentation time. The specific volume of Jeung-Pyun peaked at the 7th hour of fermentation. The dextran content of Jeung-Pyun batters peaked at the 7~13th hour of fermentation, and Fructooligosaccharide Jeung-Pyun had the least peak value. Reducing sugar content of Jeung-Pyun batters slowly decreased as fermentation progressed. From the air pore size and distribution of Jeung-Pyun observed by SEM, the sucrose Jeung-Pyun fermented for 3~7 hours and oligosaccharide one fermented for 7 hours were judged as the best. It was concluded that dextran may be formed by fermentation of oligosaccharides as well as sucrose and dextran has a significant role on the volume expansion of Jeung-Pyun.

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A Study of Damage Assessment Caused by Hydrogen Gas Leak in Tube Trailer Storage Facilities (수소 Tube Trailer 저장시설에서의 수소가스 누출에 따른 사고피해예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Rak;Hwang, Seong-Min;Yoon, Myong-O
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2011
  • As the using rate of an explosive gas has been increased in the industrial site, the regional residents adjacent to the site as well as the site workers have frequently fallen into a dangerous situation. Damage caused by accident in the process using hydrogen gas is not confined only to the relevant process, but also is linked to a large scale of fire or explosion and it bring about heavy casualties. Therefore, personnel in charge should investigate the kinds and causes of the accident, forecast the scale of damage and also, shall establish and manage safety countermeasures. We, in Anti-Calamity Research Center, forecasted the scope of danger if break out a fire or/and explosion in hydrogen gas facilities of MLCC firing process. We selected piping leak accident, which is the most frequent accident case based on an actual analysis of accident data occurred. We select and apply piping leak accident which is the most frequent case based on an actual accident data as a model of damage forecasting scenario caused by accident. A jet fire breaks out if hydrogen gas leaks through pipe size of 10 mm ${\Phi}$ under pressure of 120 bar, and in case of $4kw/m^2$ of radiation level, the radiation heat can produce an effect on up to distance of maximum 12.45 meter. Herein, we are going to recommend safety security and countermeasures for improvement through forecasting of accident damages.

On the Study of Developement for Urban Meteorological Service Technology (도시기상서비스 기술 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Jean;Kim, Chang-Mo;Ryu, Chan-Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2011
  • Urbanization of the world's population has given rise to more than 450 cities around the world with populations in excess of 1 million (megacity) and more than 25 so-called metacities with populations over 10 million (Brinkhoff, 2010). The United States today has a total resident population of more than 308,500,000 people, with 81 percent residing in cities and suburbs as of mid - 2005 (UN, 2008). Urban meteorology is the study of the physics, dynamics, and chemistry of the interactions of Earth's atmosphere and the urban built environment, and the provision of meteorological services to the populations and institutions of metropolitan areas. While the details of such services are dependent on the location and the synoptic climatology of each city, there are common themes, such as enhancing quality of life and responding to emergencies. Experience elsewhere (e.g., Shanghai, Helsinki, Tokyo, Seoul, etc.) shows urban meteorological support is a key part of an integrated or multi-hazard warning system that considers the full range of environmental challenges and provides a unified response from municipal leaders. Urban meteorology has come to require much more than observing and forecasting the weather of our cities and metropolitan areas. Forecast improvement as a function of more and better observations of various kinds and as a function of model resolution, larger ensembles, predicted probability distributions; Responses of emergency managers, government officials, and users to improved and probabilistic forecasts; Benefits of improved forecasts in reduction of loss of life, property damage, and other adverse effects. A national initiative to enhance urban meteorological services is a high-priority need for a wide variety of stakeholders, including the general, commerce and industry, and all levels of government. Some of the activities of such an initiative include: conducting basic research and development; prototyping and other activities to enable very--short and short range predictions; supporting and improving productivity and efficiency in commercial and industrial sectors; and urban planning for long term sustainability. In addition urban test-beds are an effective means for developing, testing, and fostering the necessary basic and applied meteorological and socioeconomic research, and transitioning research findings to operations. An extended, multi-year period of continuous effort, punctuated with intensive observing and forecasting periods, is envisioned.

The hierarchical structures of cause-and-effect relationships on the profit factors in overseas construction projects (해외건설공사 수익성 영향인자의 계층구조 및 사레적용에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Heon;Sun, Seung-Min;Park, Sang-Hyuk;Jung, Do-Young
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.64-76
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    • 2006
  • Korea's overseas construction industry has been rather depressed by the weakened profitability as well as the sharp decrease of the market shares due to the lack of international competitiveness and the declined international market. There exist a lot of various risks in performing the overseas construction, and especially EPC projects, which entail complicated process from different parts, also require a sophisticated procurement and management skill. Subsequently, to survive in the competitive international market, we need to establish strategies to select potentially profitable projects at the initial stage of bidding process and to mitigate the high degree of risk exposure through contract negotiation and its adjustment. This research discusses the trend of environment in international construction markets. Then, it identifies the key factors that affect the profitability significantly through the structured surveys from 59 actual overseas projects, and it analyzes the key factors by using statistical methods. This research provides the profitability evaluation bases, with which overseas construction participants can forecast and analyze the risk more systematically, by eliciting profit-influencing factors using the result of statistical analysis, literature review and structuring their cause-and-effect relationships. The profitability casual hierarchy structure describes the profitability factors' hierarchy in details and their interrelationships. It also enables us to find out critical factors directly related to profitability aggravation through a qualitative and quantitative analysis. Ultimately, with this hierarchy structure as the base, the research will suggest how to develop the quantitative profitability forecasting model.

Development of a Prototype for GIS-based Flood Risk Map Management System (GIS를 이용한 홍수위험지도 관리시스템 프로토타입 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kye-Hyun;Yoon, Chun-Joo;Lee, Sang-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.4 s.129
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    • pp.359-366
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    • 2002
  • The damages from the natural disasters, especially from the floods, have been increasing. Therefore, it is imperative to establish a BMP to diminish the damages from the floods and to enhance the welfare of the nation. Developed countries have been generating and utilizing flood risk maps to raise the alertness of the residents, and thereby achieving efficient flood management. The major objectives of this research were to develop a prototype management system for flood risk map to forecast the boundaries oi the inundation and to plot them through the integration of geographic and hydrologic database. For more efficient system development, the user requirement analysis was made. The GIS database design was done based on the results from the research work of river information standardization. A GIS database for the study area was built by using topographic information to support the hydrologic modeling. The developed prototype include several modules; river information edition module, map plotting module, and hydrologic modeling support module. Each module enabled the user to edit graphic and attribute data, to analyze and to represent the modeling results visually. Subjects such as utilization of the system and suggestions for future development were discussed.

Urban Runoff According to Rainfall Observation Locations (강우 측정 지점에 따른 도시 유역 유출량 변화 분석)

  • Hyun, Jung Hoon;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2019
  • Recently, global climate change causes abnormal weather and disaster countermeasures do not provide sufficient defense and mitigation because they were established according to the historical climate condition. Repeated torrential rains, in particular, are causing damage even in the robust urban flood defense system. Therefore, in this study, the change of runoff considering the spatial distribution of rainfall and urban characteristics was analyzed. For rainfall concentrated in small catchment, rainfall in the watershed must be accurately measured. This study is based on the rainfall data observed with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) and Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) provided by the Seoul Meteorological Administration. Effluent from the pumping station was estimated using the EPA-SWMM model and compared and analyzed. Catchments with rainwater pumping station are small with large portion of impermeable areas. Thus, when the ASOS data where is located from from the chatchment, runoff is often calculated using rainfall data that is different from rainfall in the catchment. In this study, the difference between rainfall data observed in the AWS near the catchment and ASOS away from the catchment was calculated. It was found that accurate rainfall should be used to operate rainwater pumping stations or forecast urban flooding floods. In addition, the results of this study may be helpful for estimating design rainfall and runoff calculation.