• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
• /
• v.40 no.4
• /
• pp.99-106
• /
• 2007

Statistical analyses were performed to investigate the relative success and accuracy of daily maximum X-ray flux (MXF) predictions, using both multilinear regression and autoregressive time-series prediction methods. As input data for this work, we used 14 solar activity parameters recorded over the prior 2 year period (1989-1990) during the solar maximum of cycle 22. We applied the multilinear regression method to the following three groups: all 14 variables (G1), the 2 so-called 'cause' variables (sunspot complexity and sunspot group area) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G2), and the 2 'effect' variables (previous day MXF and the number of flares stronger than C4 class) showing the highest correlations with MXF (G3). For the advanced three days forecast, we applied the autoregressive timeseries method to the MXF data (GT). We compared the statistical results of these groups for 1991 data, using several statistical measures obtained from a $2{\times}2$ contingency table for forecasted versus observed events. As a result, we found that the statistical results of G1 and G3 are nearly the same each other and the 'effect' variables (G3) are more reliable predictors than the 'cause' variables. It is also found that while the statistical results of GT are a little worse than those of G1 for relatively weak flares, they are comparable to each other for strong flares. In general, all statistical measures show good predictions from all groups, provided that the flares are weaker than about M5 class; stronger flares rapidly become difficult to predict well, which is probably due to statistical inaccuracies arising from their rarity. Our statistical results of all flares except for the X-class flares were confirmed by Yates' $X^2$ statistical significance tests, at the 99% confidence level. Based on our model testing, we recommend a practical strategy for solar X-ray flare predictions.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
• /
• v.54 no.4
• /
• pp.545-561
• /
• 2018

Over the North East Asia, extreme anomalous precipitation were observed in 2013 and 2014. During 2013 summer the precipitation was found to be higher (two standard deviation) than the climatological mean of the region; whereas during 2014, which was a borderline El Ni?o year, precipitation was found to be lower (one standard deviation). To understand the differences of these two anomalous years the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) has been used. The study found that low landsurface temperature and high sea-surface temperature over ocean caused a smaller land-sea contrast of surface temperature between East Asia and North West Pacific Ocean in 2014, which could have caused an eastward shift of mean monsoon circulation in that year compared to the circulation in 2013. Due to a change in the lower level circulation and wind field over East Asia the evaporation and moisture transport patterns became very different in those two years. In 2013, this study found high latent heat flux over Eastern China, which implies an increased surface evaporation over that region, and the moisture transported to the north by the mean monsoon circulation; whereas, there was no correlated transport of moisture to the North East Asia during 2014. The precipitable water over North East Asia has a stronger correlation with the latent heat flux over southern land region than that from Ocean region in the eastern side in both the years. A new approach is proposed to estimate the sub-grid scale hydrometeors from GRIMs, overestimated in the existing model.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.35 no.5
• /
• pp.299-308
• /
• 2022

This study was conducted to predict the tendency for heat exchange and boil-off gas (BOG) in a liquefied hydrogen tank under sloshing excitation. First, athe fluid domain excited by sloshing was modeled using a multiphase-thermal flow domain in which liquid hydrogen and hydrogen gas are in the saturated state. Both the the volume of fluid (VOF) and Eulerian-based multi-phase flow methods were applied to validate the accuracy of the pressure prediction. Second, it was indirectly shown that the fluid velocity prediction could be accurate by comparing the free surface and impact pressure from the computational fluid dynamics with those from the experimental results. Thereafter, the heat ingress from the external convective heat flux was reflected on the outer surfaces of the hydrogen tank. Eulerian-based multiphase-heat flow analysis was performed for a two-dimensional Type-C cylindrical hydrogen tank under rotational sloshing motion, and an inflation technique was applied to transform the fluid domain into a computational grid model. The heat exchange and heat flux in the hydrogen liquid-gas mixture were calculated throughout the analysis,, whereas the mass transfer and vaporization models were excluded to account for the pure heat exchange between the liquid and gas in the saturated state. In addition, forced convective heat transfer by sloshing on the inner wall of the tank was not reflected so that the heat exchange in the multiphase flow of liquid and gas could only be considered. Finally, the effect of sloshing on the amount of heat exchange between liquid and gas hydrogen was discussed. Considering the heat ingress into liquid hydrogen according to the presence/absence of a sloshing excitation, the amount of heat flux and BOG were discussed for each filling ratio.

• Plant Journal
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.49-54
• /
• 2012

In this study, the way how we can find the defects of motor windings in advance will be discussed. The magnetic flux spectrum in the high frequency region of the large motor was analyzed based on the actual fault practices related with motor windings. In case of defective motor relative amplitude ratio of the stator slot frequency to its sideband was very high compared to that of healthy motor. And the defective signal related with motor windings was indicated in advance in the magnetic flux spectrum prior to over 1 month before failure. Considering this aspect it can be estimated that magnetic flux spectrum in the high frequency region has the excellent predictive diagnostic capability.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
• /
• v.18 no.11
• /
• pp.906-914
• /
• 2006

The present paper dealt with an experimental study of boiling heat transfer characteristics of R-290. Pressure gradient and heat transfer coefficient of the refrigerant flow inside horizontal smooth minichannel were obtained with inner tube diameter of 3.0 mm and length of 2,000 mm. The direct electric heating method was applied for supplying a heat to the refrigerant uniformly. The experiments were conducted with R-290 purity of 99.99%, at saturation temperature of 0 to $10^{\circ}C$, a mass flux range of $50{\sim}250kg/m^2s$, and a heat flux range of $5{\sim}20kW/m^2$. The heat transfer coefficients of R-290 increased with increasing mass flux and saturation temperature, wherein the effect of mass flux was higher than that of the saturation temperature. Heat flux has a low effect on the increasing of heat transfer coefficient. The heat transfer coefficient was compared with six existing heat transfer coefficient correlations. The Zhang et al.'s correlation (2004) gave the best prediction of heat transfer coefficient. A new correlation to predict the two-phase flow heat transfer coefficient was developed based on the Chen correlation. The new correlation predicted the experimental data well with a mean deviation of 11.78% and average deviation of -0.07%.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
• /
• 2007.05b
• /
• pp.2303-2308
• /
• 2007

Experiments were performed to determine the thermal (or turbulent) diffusion coefficient (TDC) and to investigate the critical heat flux (CHF) performance in the 5${\times}$5 rod bundle with 5 unheated rods which are supported by Hybrid Mixing Vane. In this study, HFC-134a fluid was used as working fluid and the fluid temperature were measured in the important subchannels. To determine the TDC value, the measured fluid temperatures were compared with the predicted values obtained from the MATRA code. The best optimized value of ${\beta}$ was found to be 0.02 by considering prediction statistics, i.e., average and standard deviations of the differences between the experimental results and code calculations. Using the best optimized value of ${\beta}$ as 0.02, the MATRA code predicts the test results of the fluid temperature within ${\pm}$1.0 % of error. According to the experimental results on CHF of 5 non-heating guide tubes, the case with non-heating guide tube showed a little good performance in terms of CHF.

• Journal of computational fluids engineering
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.62-68
• /
• 2008

This paper reports briefly on the computational results of a turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection with the elliptic-blending second-moment closure (EBM). The primary emphasis of the study is placed on an investigation of accuracy and numerical stability of the elliptic-blending second-moment closure for the turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection. The turbulent heat fluxes in this study are treated by the algebraic flux model with the temperature variance and molecular dissipation rate of turbulent heat flux. The model is applied to the prediction of the turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection for Rayleigh numbers ranging from Ra=$2{\times}10^6$ to Ra=$10^9$ and the computed results are compared with the previous experimental correlations, T-RANS and LES results. The predicted cell-averaged Nusselt number follows the correlation by Peng et al.(2006) (Nu=$0.162Ra^{0.286}$) in the 'soft' convective turbulence region ($2{\times}10^6{\leq}Ra{\leq}4{\times}10^7$) and it follows the experimental correlation by Niemela et al. (2000) (N=$0.124Ra^{0.309}$) in the 'hard' convective turbulence region ($10^8{\leq}Ra{\leq}10^9$) within 5% accuracy. This results show that the elliptic-blending second-moment closure with an algebraic flux model predicts very accurately the Rayleigh-Benard convection.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2009.06a
• /
• pp.848-851
• /
• 2009

석탄슬래그는 회분의 조성에 따라 고온에서 매우 상이한 슬래그 거동을 보여준다. 국내 가스화 대상탄으로 검토된 탄 중, 산성 산화물의 함량이 높아 고용융점을 갖는 7종의 석탄 회분을 가스화 조건인 고온, 환원분위기에서 점도 측정을 실시하였다. 4종의 탄에 대해서는 높은 점도를 낮추기 위하여 염기성 산화물인 CaO를 3가지 비율로 혼합하여 점도 측정을 실시하였다. 또한, flux의 혼합으로 인해 발생할 수 있는 결정체 형성을 FactSage 평형계산 프로그램과 CaO-SiO2-Al2O3 3성분계 상평형도를 이용하여 예측하였다. CaO가 첨가된 시료 모두에서 낮은 CaO 첨가비에서는 원래의 시료보다 낮은 점도를 보였으나, CaO첨가비가 20% 이상일 때는 anorthite이 형성되어 $T_{cv}$를 갖는 결정슬래그로 점도 거동이 변화하면서 실제조업 가능한 온도를 증가시켰다. 점도 측정 후 냉각된 시료의 SEM/EDX 분석을 통해 형성된 결정체를 관찰한 결과, FactSage와 상평형도에서 예측된 결정체와 유사하게 나타나 CaO-SiO2-Al2O3 3성분계 상평형도가 결정체 예측에 유용함을 확인하였다.

• 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2008.03a
• /
• pp.111-117
• /
• 2008

This paper reports briefly on the computational results of a turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection with the elliptic-blending second-moment closure (EBM). The primary emphasis of the study is placed on an investigation of accuracy and numerical stability of the elliptic-blending second-moment closure for the turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection. The turbulent heat fluxes in this study are treated by the algebraic flux model with the temperature variance and molecular dissipation rate of turbulent heat flux. The model is applied to the prediction of the turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection for Rayleigh numbers ranging from $Ra=2{\times}10^6$ to $Ra=10^9$, and the computed results are compared with the previous experimental correlations, T-RANS and LES results. The predicted cell-averaged Nusselt number follows the correlation by Peng et al.(2006) ($Nu=0.162Ra^{0.286}$) in the 'soft' convective turbulence region ($2{\times}10^6{\leq}Ra{\leq}4{\times}10^7$) and it follows the experimental correlation by Niemela et al. (2000) ($Nu=0.124Ra^{0.309}$) in the 'hard' convective tubulence region ($10^8{\leq}Ra{\leq}10^9$) within 5% accuracy. This results show that the elliptic-blending second-moment closure with an algebraic flux model predicts very accurately the Rayleigh Benard convection.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.526-534
• /
• 2004

A new second-moment closure model for turbulent heat fluxes is proposed on the basis of the elliptic equation. The new model satisfies the near-wall balance between viscous diffusion, viscous dissipation and temperature-pressure gradient correlation, and also has the characteristics of approaching its respective conventional high Reynolds number model far away from the wall. The predictions of turbulent heat transfer in a channel flow have been carried out with constant wall heat flux and constant wall temperature difference boundary conditions respectively. The velocity field variables are supplied from the DNS data and the differential equations only fur the mean temperature and the scalar flux are solved by the present calculations. The present model is tested by direct comparisons with the DNS to validate the performance of the model predictions. The prediction results show that the behavior of the turbulent heat fluxes in the whole region is well captured by the present model.